Probability/statistics question

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Homework Help Overview

The problem involves calculating the probability of a specific city block not being hit by any bombs after 200 bombs were randomly dropped on a 10-by-10 grid of city blocks during World War II. The context includes understanding the implications of average hits per block and the overall probability of hits.

Discussion Character

  • Exploratory, Assumption checking, Mathematical reasoning

Approaches and Questions Raised

  • Participants discuss the calculation of the probability of a block not being hit, questioning the impact of the average number of hits and the total number of bombs dropped. There is a focus on understanding the relationship between individual bomb hits and cumulative outcomes.

Discussion Status

The discussion is ongoing, with participants exploring different interpretations of the probability calculation. Some guidance has been offered regarding the probability of not being hit by multiple bombs, but no consensus has been reached on the final answer.

Contextual Notes

Participants are considering the implications of the average number of hits per block and how that relates to the overall probability of a block remaining unhit. There is a need for clarity on the assumptions regarding bomb distribution and outcomes.

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Homework Statement


During World War II, a hypothetical city laid out as a 10-by-10 grid of equal size blocks was hit by 200 randomly dropped bombs. Thus, the probability of any particular bomb hitting a specific city block was 1/100 and each block was hit by an average of 2 bombs. Find the probability of a given city block not being hit at all.



Homework Equations





The Attempt at a Solution



1 - (1/100) = P(not being hit).

Just wondering if this was correct and if the fact that an average of 2 bombs and 200 bombs droped would have an impact on the probability of not being hit.
 
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Each block is hit on average TWO times so it seems reasonable to me that the probability you calculated should represent the probability that the bomb was a failure on BOTH "tries".
 
No, the question is asking for the chance that after 200 bombs were dropped, a particular block had not been hit.

You are right that P(not getting hit by a single bomb) = 99/100. So what's P(not getting hit by any of 200 bombs)?
 
is the answer P(not getting hit) = 0.00495
 
No. How did you get that?
 

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