R squared or coefficients for prediction

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SUMMARY

The discussion focuses on using statistical methods, specifically Adjusted R-squared and Mean Squared Error (MSE), to improve predictions of task execution times. The user has developed a model that compares predicted execution times against actual times to calculate prediction errors. They seek advice on how to leverage these errors for future predictions, emphasizing the importance of understanding R-squared and coefficients in this context. The MSE formula is provided to illustrate the calculation of prediction accuracy.

PREREQUISITES
  • Understanding of statistical concepts such as R-squared and Adjusted R-squared
  • Familiarity with Mean Squared Error (MSE) calculation
  • Basic knowledge of predictive modeling techniques
  • Experience with data analysis tools like R or Python
NEXT STEPS
  • Research the application of R-squared in predictive modeling
  • Explore alternative error metrics such as Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE)
  • Learn about cross-validation techniques to enhance model reliability
  • Investigate the use of regression coefficients for feature importance analysis
USEFUL FOR

Data scientists, statisticians, and anyone involved in predictive modeling and performance optimization of task execution times will benefit from this discussion.

xeon123
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I created a little model that predicts the time a task will take to execute. Than, I calculate the real time that the task took to execute. With the predict and real value I have the error of my prediction. I want to use that error to predict the next execution (the next execution is a similar task has the one I ran). I was looking to R-squared or coefficients to help me. Does anyone has an opinion about this. What is the best use I can do to the error of my prediction to help to predict again?

For now I am using Adjusted R^2, but I don't know other methods.
 
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I would use the mean squared error (see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mean_squared_error). The formula is $$MSE = \frac 1 n \sum_{i = 1}^n(Y_i - \hat{Y_i})^2$$
Here ##Y_i## is the actual time of the i-th task, and ##\hat{Y_i}## is the predicted time of the same task.
 

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