Random Walk - Falling into a pool

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SUMMARY

The discussion centers on calculating the probability of a clown falling into a swimming pool based on a random selection of red and blue balls. The clown has an equal number of n red and n blue balls, with red balls leading him closer to the pool and blue balls moving him away. The probability of falling into the pool is expressed as P(falling) = R + B[P(falling)], where R is the probability of drawing a red ball and B is the probability of drawing a blue ball. The participants suggest using recursion and tree diagrams to derive a formula for the total probability.

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Homework Statement



A clown stands at the side of a swimming pool. In his hand is a bag containing [tex]n[/tex] red balls and [tex]n[/tex] blue balls. At each step he puts his hand into the bag and pulls out a random ball and throws it away. If the ball is red, he makes a step towards the pool and if it is blue, he makes a step away from the pool. What is the probability that the clown falls into the pool?

The Attempt at a Solution



Let R be the probability that he draws a red ball. Let B be the probability he draws a blue ball.

P(falling) = R + B[tex]\left[ RR + RB... \right][/tex]

I want to do some kind of recursion but I'm not exactly sure if I'm approaching this problem correctly.

Any help?
 
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Draw a tree diagram and look at the probability that you fall into the pool the first step, the second step etc. Try find a formula and sum all these probabilities.
 

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