bohm2 said:
Are you arguing that the Bayesian approach is not anti-realist, or am I misunderstanding? In case, you are, here's what Leifer wrote:
http://mattleifer.info/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2008/10/quanta-pbr.pdf
So I take this as implying that Quantum Bayesianism is also unaffected by this theorem, just as in PBR. But Ilja did appear to question this interpretation of Bayesianism in his post. His argument centered around the Bayesian interpretation of probability. But you are right as I missed the part about the ensemble interpretation.
Yes, the most common Bayesian approach is not anti-realist - but it has nothing to do with quantum mechanics - just classical probability. When bhobba says that the state is like probability, it's a representation of belief, I think he is referring to the subjective Bayesian approach. A famous slogan of this approach is that "probability does not exist", which is analogous to "the quantum state is not real". However, this does not mean that a subjective Bayesian does not believe in reality or that physical states do not exist. For example, http://www.stat.cmu.edu/~rsteorts/btheory/goldstein_subjective_2006.pdf "They are analogous to a similar discussion as to whether and when, say, a global climate model is right or wrong. This is the wrong question. We know that the global climate model differs from the actual climate - they are two quite different things." and "When we properly recognise, develop and apply the ideas and methods of subjectivist analysis, then we will finally be able to carry out that synthesis of models, theory, experiments and data analysis which is necessary to make real inferences about the real world." There is also the de Finetti representation theorem, which
http://www.cs.berkeley.edu/~jordan/courses/260-spring10/lectures/lecture1.pdf which shows how subjectivist probability can be written in terms of parameter estimation. Another example is
http://www.uv.es/bernardo/BayesStat.pdf which says "It follows that, under exchangeability, the sentence “the true value of ω” has a well-defined meaning, if only asymptotically verifiable."
The Bayesian parameter does not have to be a "purely physical parameter" with a true physical value as opposed to a convenient parameterization of one's beliefs. However, if one takes a less purist view, one can show that Bayesian estimation does converge to the true parameter as long as the prior includes the true hypothesis; even on a very pure view the Bayesian theorems show that different Bayesian observers with different priors will converge to the same belief. So even if one did not believe in the existence of an ontic state, one would have to actually forbid the mathematics to prevent the existence of the hidden variable. For example, even if one did not believe that the hidden variables in Bohmian Mechanics were physical, there is nothing to say that Bohmian Mechanics is all unreal and just a parameterization of one's subjective belief, ie. one could take Bohmian Mechanics as a pure unreal interpretation that does not solve a non-existent measurement problem - that is just mathematics. Or at least I think that would be the lesson from the fact that even pure subjective Bayesians believe in the de Finetti representation theorem.
All this classical subjective Bayesianism is different from Quantum Bayesianism in which it is unclear whether any other observer exists for any particular observer. Actually, the other observer may exist at the meta level in Quantum Bayesianism, since Quantum Bayesianism believes in reality, without underlying ontic states. For example
http://arxiv.org/abs/1301.3274 rejects hidden variables "Giving up on hidden variables implies in particular that measured values do not pre-exist the act of measurement. A measurement does not merely “read off” the values, but enacts or creates them by the process itself. In a slogan inspired by Asher Peres (Peres, 1978), “unperformed measurements". But it also asserts the existence of a reality: "So, implicit in this whole picture—this whole Paulian Idea—is an “external world . . . made of something,” just as Martin Gardner calls for. It is only that quantum theory is a rather small theory: Its boundaries are set by being a handbook for agents immersed within that “world made of something.”"
Incidentally, regardless of what one thinks of the philosophical details of the Quantum Bayesian programme, one of the solid and beautiful achievements of Caves, Fuchs and Schack is a proof of the quantum de Finetti theorem (first proved by Hudson and Moody), which allows Quantum Bayesians to treat quantum states as true physical states FAPP:
http://arxiv.org/abs/quant-ph/0104088. (But at some point I think some of the authors switched from objective Bayesianism to subjective Bayesianism.)