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News Recession Ended in June 2009

  1. Sep 21, 2010 #1
    It's official, the Great Recession ended over a year ago...in June 2009.

    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/39269753/ns/business-eye_on_the_economy/

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100920/ap_on_bi_ge/us_end_of_recession [Broken]

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/09/20/AR2010092006355.html

    http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2010/sep/20/recession-over-for-a-year-americans-dont-feel-it/

    http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/13/business/economy/13recession.html

    http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-recession-over-20100921,0,2428295.story

    From the last,
    "Reporting From Washington —
    This just in: The recession ended more than a year ago — in June 2009.

    That may seem perplexing, given the sour state of the economy, but the panel of experts designating when serious economic downturns begin and end typically takes a year or so to make the calls. ..."​
    I hope none of the politicians are dumb enough to run on this announcement.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: May 4, 2017
  2. jcsd
  3. Sep 21, 2010 #2

    Office_Shredder

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    A recession is just defined by the economy shrinking. If every corporation shut down tomorrow and we returned to the stone age, it wouldn't be a recession because the economy would probably grow in October
     
  4. Sep 21, 2010 #3

    lisab

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    I'm having uv-ajed....ah yes, I remember now...we had a mirror-image thread of this subject as the recession was starting.

    I'll go look for it...

    ...well I can't find it :frown: but it was a loooong discussion on whether or not we were in a recession. I guess if we're now going to talk about whether or not we're *still* in a recession, it's a good sign!
     
    Last edited: Sep 21, 2010
  5. Sep 21, 2010 #4

    Ivan Seeking

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    Last edited: Sep 21, 2010
  6. Sep 21, 2010 #5

    Ivan Seeking

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    Very strange, the wrong graph was showing. I updated the link and the correct one appears again.
     
  7. Sep 21, 2010 #6
    That just means things stopped getting worse in June 2009. It doesn't mean things have significantly improved since then. The 9.6% US unemployment rate from June 2010 still feels like a recession, for example.
     
  8. Sep 21, 2010 #7

    russ_watters

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    Minor correction: that's for the 4th quarter of 2008.
     
  9. Sep 21, 2010 #8

    russ_watters

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    You're probably talking about me and the post is here:
    https://www.physicsforums.com/showthread.php?p=1984942&highlight=nber#post1984942

    I'll summarize: The closest thing to a standard definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. The NBER historically didn't stray much from that until recently and used substantially different criteria in the last two recessions and made contradictory statements in their reasoning for the date assignments.

    Admittedly, for the start of this past recession, it was difficult due to somewhat of a plateau, but at the time they made their decision, they showed one quarter of negative followed by two quarters of positive growth in the first 9 months of the recession (which they state in their press release). That said, a couple of sources I've checked recently (including Ivan's) show much different GDP growth than the NBER talks about. I can't explain the discrepancy at the moment. Perhaps they were revised recently? Those are quite large revisions, quite late, if that's the case.

    For this past recession's end date, I have no quibble: they stuck closer to the more standard reasoning.
     
  10. Sep 21, 2010 #9

    lisab

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    Yes, that was the thread - thanks, Russ.
     
  11. Sep 22, 2010 #10

    Ivan Seeking

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    Yes, reported in Jan.
     
  12. Sep 23, 2010 #11

    Astronuc

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    Warren Buffett: "We're still in a recession"
    http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/us_buffett_recession [Broken]
    I'll put my money on Buffett. :biggrin:
     
    Last edited by a moderator: May 4, 2017
  13. Sep 23, 2010 #12
    I love Margaritaville!
     
  14. Sep 23, 2010 #13

    russ_watters

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    What I dislike about Buffett is that he makes stuff up as he goes along. Making up your own definitions of words is just not acceptable and for someone in his position is extremely irresponsible.

    Sometimes I think his age is starting to get to him.
     
  15. Oct 8, 2010 #14

    Ivan Seeking

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    The Dow broke 11,000 today.
     
  16. Oct 8, 2010 #15
    Last edited by a moderator: Apr 25, 2017
  17. Oct 8, 2010 #16
    ...and now, the REST of the story...

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-08/employers-in-u-s-cut-more-jobs-in-september-than-economists-had-estimated.html [Broken]
     
    Last edited by a moderator: May 5, 2017
  18. Oct 8, 2010 #17

    Astronuc

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    I'll go with Warren's assessment -

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/09/23/warren-buffett-were-still_n_736148.html

    Buffet is not making it up. He just has a more practical view than NBER, or the government that was in denial for long, but now can't wait to declare it over. Meanwhile, we see a lot of young folk who can't find liveable wage/salary jobs and locally we see many business closed.

    Take away the $trillion or so the government has borrowed the last fiscal year, where are we? And what about record foreclosures and bankruptcies, and continuation of a chronic trade deficit.

    http://www.loansandcredit.com/bankrupt-in-america-2009-bankruptcy-filings-per-state/

    http://www.acainternational.org/us-bankruptcies-increased-14-percent-in-first-half-of-2010-17192.aspx [Broken]

    http://www.abiworld.org/AM/Template.cfm?Section=Home&TEMPLATE=/CM/ContentDisplay.cfm&CONTENTID=61613

    http://consumer.abi.org/

    http://www.abiworld.org/Content/Nav...BankruptcyStatistics/Bankruptcy_Filings_1.htm
     
    Last edited by a moderator: May 5, 2017
  19. Oct 8, 2010 #18

    Ivan Seeking

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    The truth of the story

    The private sector added about 64,000 jobs, but many public sector jobs were lost. This is your reduction in government spending at work. :wink:

    Note the rise in public sector jobs under a Republican controlled government.

    [URL]http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2010/10/8/saupload_private_vs_public_jobs.jpg[/URL]

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/229...re-growing-but-the-public-sector-is-shrinking
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Apr 25, 2017
  20. Oct 8, 2010 #19
    Actually, this is the Stimulus Spending (2010) at work - and NOBODY is cheering.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Apr 25, 2017
  21. Oct 8, 2010 #20
    The effects of Republican policies led to that huge drop in 2008. Even though Democrats had control of the house and senate starting in 2007, they did not have time to screw things up that badly to cause the crash in 2008. Government policies simply don't work that quickly.

    I'm not even sure I believe my first statement there, but it's as plausible as the implied "jobs grow under a Republican congress and shrink during a Democratic one."

    More likely, I think both major parties were bought out by big businesses who wanted to wring the American public dry.
     
  22. Oct 9, 2010 #21

    russ_watters

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    I guess you can argue he has a more practical view, but even that is debateable: a definition is what it is and if it is used correctly, there should be no problem. If the general public see expansion=good economy and recession= bad economy, then they are the ones misunderstanding the definition. If he chooses to use that definition, then he's knowingly playing into that misunderstanding.

    Perhaps I stated that badly, though: it would be more correct to say that he's purposely choosing to use the wrong definition rather than say he made it up.
    Which doesn't have anything whatsoever to do with whether we are in a recession or not.
     
  23. Oct 9, 2010 #22

    russ_watters

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    Just to make sure everyone sees it when you're trying to interpret what that graph means, note the difference in the two scales: Both the starting value and in the increment.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Apr 25, 2017
  24. Oct 9, 2010 #23
    I agree with russ waters is saying. There is a definition one must follow and to not confuse the terms.

    Saying the recession ended doesn't imply people will start getting jobs. Whether we are in recession or not has no relevance to me at the moment. The most relevant thing is jobs. Typically a good economy implies jobs are available or they are not as scarce as they are now. For this reason, people have good economy implying jobs.

    With the unemployment rate as high as it is and the underemployed rate, Canada and the US and potentially the rest of the world is at a high risk of re-entering into a recession. Although I doubt it, because I don't see many people losing jobs. It's pretty equal among getting and losing if I use the "data" I see around me (just generalizing although it's meaningless). Also, even looking at the numbers, although there has been job loss, over the past few months it has been relatively stable. Recovering from a recession doesn't imply every month will follow with growth.

    There are good things that have happened. People have started to reduce their consumer debt, either voluntarily or involuntarily. I felt for Canadians and Americans have been careless about the consumer debt they have been holding. They have all started saving more.

    http://www.benzinga.com/10/10/51520...ving-too-much-money-so-we-need-to-purposely-g

    I believe a good balance of lending and spending must exist.

    Also, another good thing I learned is that the US has some BALLS. They haven't been manipulating their currency that much compared to other countries (China for the worse, but also Japan and Korea). For a country to stand by its policy of a market price currency in this current economic stage is a very bold thing to do. US did the right thing here but now they are getting screwed.

    Anyways, enough about that. Post ended.
     
  25. Oct 9, 2010 #24

    Astronuc

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    We're in a hole and it's not clear that we've started climbing out of it. I imagine that only reason that there is growth is the fact that the government is spending more borrowed money to buy goods and services. That is unsustainable.

    Nevertheless - I caught this interesting discussion.

    Unemployment: Cyclical or structural?
    http://marketplace.publicradio.org/display/web/2010/10/07/unemployment-is-it-cyclical-or-structural/ [Broken]
     
    Last edited by a moderator: May 5, 2017
  26. Oct 9, 2010 #25
    I disagree with this statement. Arguably, the NBER disagrees with you too.

    http://www.nber.org/cycles/recessions.html

    Emphasis mine. These quote show that the declaration of a recession (or its end) is a judgment call. It's somewhat subjective.

    So tell me, what is this One True Definition of recession in your eyes?
     
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