- #26
- 62
- 0
Hi Reasonmclucus,
If the use of maxima and minima on ground sites were a factor that significantly impacted the accuracy of temperature, then this should be apparent in variance between MSU and ground readings. Indeed there is a small unaccounted for difference. See the IPCC Third Assessment Report Chapter 2 Observed Variability and Change for an in depth account of the science up to 2000. I’ve never heard this point raised before, do you have any references to it?
The study I refer to Soden et al does not need to address “the actual energy being radiated” in order to demonstrate the good agreement between the model predictions and the observed reality. You argue with regards the agreement claimed by the authors, and indeed there is a small variance, see fig 2. But if there were NO variance I would be very suspicious of such a result. Due to the complexity of the atmosphere exact agreement is not likely. Soden et al was peer-reviewed and as it stands against the sceptics case you can bet there’ll be a small army of them working to attempt to undermine it’s support for the model’s ability to predict the water vapour amplification of temperature shifts.
Water does indeed impact air temp close to the dew point. But above the dew point the factor you state is not a major factor. Furthermore the energy balance mechanism you allude to is a short-term localised factor. And it cannot account for the globally observed increase in temperatures. With an atmospheric residency time of around 3.6 years against water’s 11 days, CO2 remains a long term forcing that can account for the recent observed warming when amplified by water vapour increases.
If the use of maxima and minima on ground sites were a factor that significantly impacted the accuracy of temperature, then this should be apparent in variance between MSU and ground readings. Indeed there is a small unaccounted for difference. See the IPCC Third Assessment Report Chapter 2 Observed Variability and Change for an in depth account of the science up to 2000. I’ve never heard this point raised before, do you have any references to it?
The study I refer to Soden et al does not need to address “the actual energy being radiated” in order to demonstrate the good agreement between the model predictions and the observed reality. You argue with regards the agreement claimed by the authors, and indeed there is a small variance, see fig 2. But if there were NO variance I would be very suspicious of such a result. Due to the complexity of the atmosphere exact agreement is not likely. Soden et al was peer-reviewed and as it stands against the sceptics case you can bet there’ll be a small army of them working to attempt to undermine it’s support for the model’s ability to predict the water vapour amplification of temperature shifts.
Water does indeed impact air temp close to the dew point. But above the dew point the factor you state is not a major factor. Furthermore the energy balance mechanism you allude to is a short-term localised factor. And it cannot account for the globally observed increase in temperatures. With an atmospheric residency time of around 3.6 years against water’s 11 days, CO2 remains a long term forcing that can account for the recent observed warming when amplified by water vapour increases.