Stargazing Solar Activity and Space Weather Update thread

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The discussion focuses on ongoing solar activity and space weather updates following the August 21, 2017, solar eclipse. Participants are encouraged to share significant solar events, including images and scientific articles. Currently, sunspot regions 2671 and 2672 are noted, with region 2672 expected to decline soon. Recent solar flares include M-class events, with predictions of active geomagnetic conditions and potential auroras at high latitudes. The conversation highlights the dynamic nature of solar observations and the importance of safety when viewing the sun.
  • #421
A) Aug. 16, 2025

" CO-ROTATING INTERACTION REGION: A co-rotating interaction region (CIR) is expected to hit Earth on Aug. 18th, squeezing our magnetic field between fast and slow streams of solar wind. Watch for a sudden jump in solar wind speed, density, and magnetic field (especially Bz). Minor G1-class geomagnetic storms and high-latitude auroras are possible if Bz turns south. (...)

DO GEOMAGNETIC STORMS AFFECT BLOOD PRESSURE?
Solar activity might be doing more than sparking auroras. A new study in Communications Medicine suggests it could be nudging your blood pressure, too.

Researchers in China analyzed more than half a million blood pressure readings taken over six years in the cities of Qingdao and Weihai. They compared those measurements to the Ap index, a standard measure of geomagnetic activity. The result: Blood pressure rises and falls in rhythm with magnetic unrest.

bpdata_strip.webp

A sample of the dataset showing the correlation between BP and Ap. See Fig 1 for more.​

Both systolic and diastolic blood pressure showed a bimodal pattern, with peaks in spring and autumn, mirroring the seasonal ups and downs of geomagnetic activity. In years when geomagnetic activity was strong, blood pressure peaked about one month after the Ap index. During quieter years, the lag stretched to two months. The data revealed matching cycles at 12, 6, and sometimes 3 months -- present in the Ap index but absent from other environmental factors.

"We found that blood pressure and geomagnetic activity share distinct seasonal patterns," says Quanqi Shi, one of the paper's co-authors from Shandong University. "There seems to be a genuine link between the two."

Importantly, the study found no similar multi-month patterns in air temperature or PM2.5, two well-known influences on blood pressure. While temperature correlated more strongly with blood pressure in a straightforward statistical sense, its effect lacked the 6- and 3-month cycles seen in geomagnetic data.

sr_med.webp
The authors stop short of saying that geomagnetic activity causes high blood pressure. Their data cannot prove cause and effect. Still, Shi and his colleagues are exploring how such a link might work.

"One possible mechanism involves the modulation of ultra-low frequency waves, specifically Schumann resonances (pictured right), which occur within Earth's magnetosphere. The fundamental frequency of Schumann resonances is approximately 7.8 Hz, with harmonics around 14.1, 20.3, 26.4, and 32.5 Hz. These fluctuations may interfere with human brain waves such as alpha (8–12 Hz), beta (12–30 Hz), and gamma (30–100 Hz)," Shi explains.

"The brain could then modulate neuroendocrine activity (for example, by altering the secretion of hormones such as vasopressin), which can gradually influence vascular tone and fluid balance. Such physiological adjustments may take weeks to accumulate, potentially explaining the observed 1-2 month delay."

"This is just a hypothesis," he stresses. "Further targeted studies are needed to confirm and clarify its potential mechanisms."

Want to learn more? The full paper may be found here. "


B) Aug. 18, 2025

" THE 'CIR' MIGHT HAVE ARRIVED: Solar wind data suggest that a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) might have hit Earth around 1200 UTC on Aug. 18th. The impact did not immediately produce a geomagnetic storm, however, minor storms may yet develop as Earth moves deeper into the CME-like sandwich of solar wind streams. HIgh-latitude sky watchers should remain alert for auroras on Aug. 19th. (...)

LAST CHANCE TO SEE TITAN'S SHADOW: Time is running out to witness a rare spectacle on Saturn. Since May, amateur astronomers have been spotting the shadow of Titan--Saturn's strangely Earthlike moon--as it glides across the ringed planet’s cloudtops.

ny_anim_strip.gif


"I am very happy to have recorded this very RARE event on Aug. 3rd," says Philip Smith of Manorville, NY.

The next opportunity comes on Aug. 19th, and it will be one of the final transits of the series. After the season ends in October, observers will have to wait until the 2040s for another chance.

Shadow transits like these occur only during Saturn's equinoxes, when sunlight strikes the planet’s rings and moons edge-on. Among Saturn's menagerie of 274 known satellites, Titan’s shadow stands out as immense, jet black, and visible even in modest backyard telescopes.

Gregory Shanos of Longboat Key, FL, has photographed six transits in the current cycle:

saturncollage_strip2.webp

"Note how the shadow begins just above the rings in May and gets higher on the disk with each successive transit," he says. The Aug. 19th transit will be the highest yet, with a visibly elongated disk stretching toward Saturn's pole.

Every transit lasts hours. Titan’s shadow marches slowly across Saturn’s globe rather than flashing by in an instant, giving observers plenty of time to experiment with photo settings and soak in the view through the eyepiece.

The Aug. 19th event begins at 05:52 UT (01:52 am EDT) and ends about four hours later. Saturn will be high in the southern sky, shining at magnitude +0.6 in the constellation Pisces: sky map.

Enjoy the show--it won’t be back for nearly two decades. "


C) Aug. 19, 2025

" LONG-DURATION SOLAR FLARE: New sunspot 4188 exploded, producing an M1-class solar flare that lasted more than 3 hours. The long-duration event engulfed almost half of the sun's southeastern limb (movie) and probably hurled a significant CME into space. Stay tuned for updates. "

Latest Note: the Solar Wind is significantly increasing (based on last hours/minutes watch ...). See also added note (=part 3) at the end of next post (i.e. added part 3 there ...).
 
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  • #422
It seems Solar Activity may be increasing again (these last days etc.) ...

Today, Tue Aug. 19, 2025, [and for/regarding yesterday too, (i.e. the 2nd part of this post, below ...) ...] increased, important & somewhat relatively unusual Solar Activity ...
{(+ chances for auroras is/may be increasing, even as we speak ...)}
[Take a look] :

1)
" LONG-DURATION SOLAR FLARE: New sunspot 4188 exploded, producing an M1-class solar flare that lasted more than 3 hours. The long-duration event engulfed almost half of the sun's southeastern limb (movie) and probably hurled a significant CME into space. (...)"
[Stay tuned for updates.]

2)
" A PLASMA TORNADO ON THE SUN: Yesterday, astronomers around the world witnessed a fiery twister unraveling above the sun's surface. It wasn’t a storm of wind and rain, but a plasma tornado--a column of hot gas spiraling thousands of kilometers high:

tornado_g_strip.webp

"My wife helped me capture this twister," says Maximilian-Vlad Teodorescu of Romania's Institute of Space Science, who photographed the storm despite drifting clouds and turbulent afternoon air. "The telescope's mount was not properly aligned, so she centered the subject while I recorded the data--teamwork!"

Unlike tornadoes on Earth, solar tornadoes are not caused by pressure differences in the atmosphere. Instead, they are sculpted by twisted magnetic fields that channel plasma upward at speeds reaching 300,000 kilometers per hour. For comparison, the mightiest twisters on Earth are almost a thousand times slower.

Solar tornadoes can be surprisingly stable, swirling for hours or even days. Sometimes they dissolve in a harmless puff. Other times, they erupt, hurling plasma into space as part of a coronal mass ejection (CME). In this case, the tornado was relatively calm, holding its shape without producing a major eruption.

The plasma is still spinning today {(Aug. 19)}. If you have a solar telescope, take a look! "

3) Latest Note: the Solar Wind is significantly increasing (based on last hours/minutes watch ...), as well as a new C5 flare ... [take a look] :

" Solar wind
speed: 460.2 km/sec
density: 10.85 protons/cm3

more data: ACE, DSCOVR

Updated: Today at 1107 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C5 0509 UT Aug19
24-hr: M1 0439 UT Aug19
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1110 UT


Daily Sun: 19 Aug 25
hmi200.gif

Expand: labels | no labels

With only 4 small sunspots, the solar disk is almost blank. Credit: NASA/SDO "
(...)

Note that prior to that, today (this morning) the speed of the Solar Wind was relatively normal for some time (below ~ 380 Km/sec, or even lower [at times], and ~ yesterday too, most of the time, etc. ...), [with some peaks (and oscillating of course ...), and recently the max was ~450Km/sec – while just now it exceeded even that with 460 ... above ... etc.] ...

[Also] Watch out, possibly, for auroras tonight, and in the days ahead ...
 
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  • #423
[+ See/cf. previous 2 posts – very important!]

Latest update (to the latest minute): New further significant increases in the Solar Wind (today Tue, Aug. 19, 2025), and new local & global maxima, [as well as new C2 flare(s) too (more than one, almost consecutive)] ... [take a look] :

1.
"Solar wind
speed: 517.3 km/sec
density: 5.11 protons/cm3

more data: ACE, DSCOVR

Updated: Today at 1217 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C2 0618 UT Aug19
24-hr: M1 0439 UT Aug19
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1220 UT "

2.
"Solar wind
speed: 548.0 km/sec
density: 6.38 protons/cm3

more data: ACE, DSCOVR

Updated: Today at 1221 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C2
0623 UT Aug19
24-hr: M1 0439 UT Aug19
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1225 UT "

(...)

[& just now, almost before closing, ... 557Km/sec ... etc.], ... [ and latest latest sets: a) 562.8 Km/sec , 3.26 Protons/cm³ ... b) 582.2 ..., 3.38 ... / with newest latest C2 flare at 06:49 UT ... ...]
[As said already, Auroras may be coming etc. ...]

& PS edit, before the end of this live watch ... : just reached over 600 ... etc. (602.2 Km/sec ... etc.) & another latest C2 flare was at 06:59 UT ..., and [the solar activity is] rising ...
(getting auroras more and more likely ...).
 
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  • #424
(Still Aug. 19 [to 20, depending on local time zones] ...)

The Solar Wind speed in the meantime went close to 700Km/sec ... (cf. previous post ... / was ~ in contineous rising & many flares, almost every 5 to 10 min for some time ...).

Also:
" GEOMAGNETIC STORM UNDERWAY: A minor G1-class geomagnetic storm is underway on Aug. 19th as Earth enters a fast-moving stream of solar wind. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras after local nightfall. (...)

A PLASMA TORNADO ON THE SUN: This week, astronomers around the world have been monitoring a twister unraveling above the sun's surface. It isn’t a storm of wind and rain, but a plasma tornado--a column of hot gas spiraling thousands of kilometers high:

David-Wilson-20250817V-blue-o_1755519681_strip.gif

David Wilson captured this video on Aug. 17th from his backyard observatory in Inverness, Scotland. "I inserted an image of the Earth-moon system for scale," he says. "This tornado is big enough to swallow our entire planet!"

Unlike tornadoes on Earth, which are caused by pressure differences in the atmosphere, tornadoes on the sun are sculpted by magnetic fields, which grab clouds of plasma and whip them around. Wind speeds in this monster are topping 100,000 mph. If we rated it on the Fujita scale, it would be a F300. For comparison, the deadliest tornadoes on Earth are a "mere" F5.

The plasma is still spinning today. If you have a solar telescope, take a look! "

Note that: 1) Kp (Planetary K-index [for auroras]) = 4.67 , almost right now ..., and perhaps increasing ...]

2)
" Coronal Holes: 18 Aug 25
spacer.gif
coronalhole_sdo_200.gif

Solar wind flowing from this coronal hole should reach Earth on Aug. 19th. Credit: NASA/SDO | more data "
 
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  • #425
Wed. Aug. 20, 2025

Solar Wind still elevated right now, with speed ~ e.g. 650.7 Km/sec ...

" GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH: The action started yesterday. Minor G1-class geomagnetic storms broke out on Aug. 19th when Earth entered a fast-moving stream of solar wind. The action could intensify today. NOAA forecasters expect a CME to graze Earth's magnetic field on Aug. 20th, potentially boosting storm levels to G2. High-latitude sky watchers should remain alert for auroras after local nightfall. (...)

AURORA SEASON BEGINS:
Around the Arctic Circle, it's been a long summer of bright nights and no auroras. Now the seasons are changing. Jónína Óskarsdóttir sends this picture from Fáskrúðsfjörður, Iceland:

iceland_strip.webp

"Just after 1 am on Aug. 20th, the sky filled with enormous green auroras," says Óskarsdóttir. "What a wonderful start of the new season!"

The auroras she photographed were sparked by a stream of solar wind blowing faster than 600 km/s. Earth is still inside the stream today, and the darkness will be a few minutes longer. The second day of the new season could be even better than the first!

more images: from John David McKinnon of Fort Smith/Tthebacha, Northwest Territories, Canada

... (...) "

" Coronal Holes: 20 Aug 2025
coronalhole_sdo_200.gif

Earth is inside a stream of solar wind flowing from the indicated coronal hole. Credit: NASA/SDO | more data"

Note: Solar Wind increasing further ... – the speed just reached 810.1 Km/sec, just before closing this post ... (and still oscillating though).
 
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  • #426
After a few days of relative quiet, the Solar Activity intensifies once again, as large groups of big to huge sunspots make their way to the front side.

A) Aug. 29, 2025
" MONSTER SUNSPOTS: A phalanx of large sunspots is facing Earth. They're so large, photographers are catching them in the sunrise and sunset. (Caution: always use safe solar filters!) NOAA forecasters estimate a 65% chance of M-class solar flares and a 15% chance of X-flares solar flares during the next 24 hours. (...)"

Especially Sunspot 4197 is about 1/3rd the size of Carrington's sunspot.

" Daily Sun: 29 Aug 2025
hmi200.gif

Expand: labels | no labels

Sunspot 4197 has a 'beta-gamma' magnetic field that harbors energy for strong M-class solar flares. Credit: NASA/SDO "


B) Aug. 30
" CHANCE OF X-FLARES TODAY: Giant sunspot 4197 has developed an unstable 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that harbors energy for strong explosions. NOAA forecasters estimate a 75% chance of M-class solar flares and a 25% chance of X-flares during the next 24 hours. (...)

EARTH-DIRECTED SOLAR FLARE: The sun is a tricky star. While we were watching giant sunspot 4197, a different, much smaller sunspot erupted. On Aug 30th at 20:02 UTC, sunspot 4204 produced a long duration M2.7-class solar flare:

m2p7_teal_crop_strip.gif

Although the flare was not very intense, it lasted for 3 hours, long enough to lift a CME out of the sun's atmosphere. Confirmation of a possible halo CME awaits fresh data from CCOR-1 and SOHO coronagraphs. (...)"

C) Aug. 31
STRONG GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH: A strong (G3) geomagnetic storm watch is in effect for Sept. 1st and 2nd when a CME is expected to hit Earth's magnetic field. The storm cloud was hurled toward Earth yesterday by a long duration solar flare near the center of the solar disk.

33a0059d-6874-c215-a511-83877c757c77.gif

Above: A NASA model shows the CME striking Earth (yellow dot) during the late hours of Sept. 1st.

" Daily Sun: 31 Aug 2025
hmi200.gif

Expand: labels | no labels

Sunspot 4197 has a 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that harbors energy for X-class solar flares. Credit: NASA/SDO "

And Latest Update (Aug31 to Sept 1 ...) :
" STRONG GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH: A strong geomagnetic storm watch is in effect following yesterday's Earth-directed solar flare, described below. A halo CME is expected to hit Earth during the late hours of Sept. 1st, sparking a G3-class geomagnetic storm that could persist through Sept. 2nd. During such storms, auroras may be photographed in US states as far south as Virginia, Missouri and Colorado. (...)"
 
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  • #427

Tue Sept. 2, 2025

1.
" GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH: A geomagnetic storm watch is in effect on Sept. 2nd as Earth passes through the wake of a CME that struck yesterday. Category G1 (Minor) storms are likely with a chance of escalating to category G2 (Moderate) or G3 (Strong). High-latitude sky watchers should remain alert for auroras. (...)

CME IMPACT SPARKS WIDESPREAD AURORAS:
As predicted, a CME struck Earth's magnetic field on Sept. 1st (2100 UTC). The impact was abrupt and strong, bringing solar winds faster than 600 km/s (1.3 million mph), and a G2-class geomagnetic storm. Pilot Matt Melnyk photographed the auroras from the cockpit of a Dreamliner flying over Canada's Hudson Bay

Matt-Melnyk-_G4A4735_1756817010_strip.webp

"This was the view from 37,000 feet," says Melnyk. "Unfortunately I don't think most of Canada was able to enjoy the show due to the amount of cloud cover I saw below."

In Europe, auroras were photographed as far south as France and Spain, while in the United States they descended to Virginia. Many onlookers saw the color purple. This is a sign of nitrogen, especially ionized molecular nitrogen (N2+), which produces a blue-purple light at high altitudes when it is hit by energetic particles from the sun.
(...)
"



2. (Sept. 2 & 1 ...)
CME IMPACT SPARKS 'NITROGEN AURORAS': A CME struck Earth's magnetic field on Sept. 1st, sparking widespread auroras photographed as far south as Spain in Europe and Virginia in the USA. The display was unusually rich in pinks and purples associated with nitrogen. More auroras are possible tonight as Earth moves through the CME's wake.

ec67f790-c4d8-dade-2ff8-6f18941bf98d.webp
Above: The Sept. 1st aurora storm photographed from the cockpit of a Dreamliner flying 37,000 feet above Canada. Credit: Matt Melnyk​



Wed Sept 3, 2025
" THE STORM IS SUBSIDING: The Labor Day geomagnetic storm is subsiding as Earth exits the wake of a CME that struck Earth on Sept. 1st. Minor G1-class storms remain possible on Sept. 3rd as reverberations from the CME's impact gradually decay. (...)

PURPLE NITROGEN AURORAS:
Earth's atmosphere is mostly nitrogen (78%), yet auroras are seldom the color of this omnipresent molecule. Usually, oxygen paints the Northern Lights with its colors--red and green. Yet during this week's geomagnetic storm, nitrogen ruled. The purple color of N2+ is everywhere in this Sept. 2nd photo from the Haukadalur hot springs in Iceland:

iceland_strip.webp


"The aurora display on the morning of Sept. 2nd lasted for more than 90 mintes says photographer Dieter M. Zube. "Especially the nitrogen colours came through nicely."

Similar and even more intense displays of purple were seen in Scotland, New Zealand, the UK, Quebec, Lake Superior, Ontario, and the flight deck of a Dreamliner.

What happened? We don't know. Conventional wisdom holds that nitrogen auroras appear during intense geomagnetic storms. Yet the storm on Sept 1-2, 2025, was hardly intense. It peaked at category G2, which is only moderate. Nevertheless, something in the mix of energetic protons and electrons raining down on Earth's atmosphere activated ionized molecular nitrogen and caused it to brightly glow. Consider it a beautiful mystery. (...)"

Kp index for auroras reached max of stormy 5.33 during Sept. 2nd ..., but down to quiet 1.67 (as of right now) today ...
 
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  • #428
Our old friend, the large southern hemisphere coronal hole, is coming back around again. 4th or 5th time around and is still large.
Be prepared for some more high latitude aurora in the coming days ( approx. 8 to 10 Sept.)

latest_1024_0193.webp
 
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  • #429

[Fri Sept. 5, 2025] Also, another event, almost at the same time ... :


AURORAS POSSIBLE DURING THE LUNAR ECLIPSE: Yesterday (Th Sept. 4), a 'sigmoid' on the sun exploded, a CME directly toward Earth. Its arrival on Sept. 7th could spark auroras during this weekend's total lunar eclipse.


b7a6540f-9d25-4535-2e64-3d3f58a4b726.gif
Above: A sigmoid eruption on the sun on Sept. 4, 2025​
.
 
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  • #430
The large equatorial hemisphere coronal hole, is back around again and is still large.
It has the wonderful shape of a butterfly :smile:
Be prepared for some more high latitude aurora in the coming days ( approx. 11 to 13 Sept.)

latest_512_0193.webp
 
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  • #431
SUBJ: ASWFC GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING 25/66
ISSUED AT 2335UT/09 SEPTEMBER 2025
BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE.

Isolated periods of G1 are expected on 10-Sep due to coronal
hole effects.

INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED
DUE TO CORONAL HOLE HIGH SPEED WIND STREAM
FOR 10 SEPTEMBER 2025
_____________________________________________________________

GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST
10 Sep: G0-G1

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC@bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au

_______________________________________________
ips-geo-warning mailing list
ips-geo-warning@ips.gov.au
https://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-geo-warning
 
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  • #432
For Th Sept 11, 2025

GIANT BUTTERFLY-SHAPED HOLE IN THE SUN'S ATMOSPHERE: A 500,000-km wide coronal hole has opened in the sun’s atmosphere, sending a stream of solar wind toward Earth. It could spark G1–G2 geomagnetic storms and auroras around Sept. 14th, enhanced by the Russell-McPherron effect.


346dfcca-b7a5-bd36-814c-c2451addc52f.webp
Above: An extreme ultraviolet image of the coronal hole photographed on Sept. 11th by NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory​
.
 
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  • #433
For Sept. 15, 2025

STRONG EQUINOX STORM: Last night, a strong geomagnetic storm pushed auroras deep into the USA, with sightings as far south as Colorado and Arizona. This was an "equinox storm" enhanced by the Russell-McPherron effect. It won't be the last one. The season for such storms runs through October.

923cc13c-86fe-8db7-bcdf-5cb3767958a0.webp
Above: An outburst of auroras over Greenland during last night's strong equinox geomagnetic storm. Photo credit: Rayann Elzein​
.
 
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  • #434
Space Weather news for Wed Oct. 15, 2025

Multiple CMEs Could Spark Auroras This Week

MULTIPLE CMEs ARE APPROACHING EARTH: As many as 3 CMEs are approaching Earth. According to a NOAA model, they could spark G2-class geomagnetic storms when they arrive on Oct. 16-17. High-latitude sky watchers (including observers in northern-tier US states) may be alert for auroras.



d08c8726-1e41-65df-4de4-421928601c84.webp
Above: This NOAA model shows at least 3 CMEs approaching Earth​
.
 
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  • #435
STRONG GEOMAGNETIC STORMS PREDICTED: Solar activity is suddenly high with multiple X-class and strong M-class solar flares since Monday. At least three CMEs are expected to graze or directly hit Earth this week, potentially sparking strong geomagnetic storms on Nov. 6-7.


a1511ff3-ee51-48fd-bfc1-027bcc3c878f.webp
Above: An X1.8-class solar flare from sunspot 4274 on Nov. 4, 2025​
.
 
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  • #436
A X1.7 on the 9th of Nov (UT) has launched a partial halo CME directly towards Earth.
This has come from the very active AR 4274 which is now face on to Earth

SUBJ: ASWFC GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING 25/89
ISSUED AT 0020UT/10 NOVEMBER 2025
BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE.

A partial halo CME was launched from the Sun at 0738UT on 09-Nov
and is anticipated to arrive at Earth on UT day 11-Nov from
1700UT +/- 12 hours. G3 geomagnetic conditions are forecast to
commence from this time, with a chance of G4. Conditions are
expected to decline to G1-G2 on 12-Nov.

INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED
DUE TO CORONAL MASS EJECTION
FROM 11-12 NOVEMBER 2025
_____________________________________________________________

GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST
11 Nov: G3, chance G4
12 Nov: G1-G2

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC@bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
 
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  • #437
A X5.1 on the 11th of Nov (UT) has launched a huge CME directly towards Earth.
This has come from the very active AR 4274 which is now just past face-on position to Earth

This very fast movimg CME is expected to overtake the other 2 CME's already almost at Earth
and has been labelled a "cannibal" CME as it is going to "eat up" the other two.

Predictions are for very strong G4 - G5 geomagnetic storms on the 12 - 13th Nov

PRELIMINARY FLARE DETAILS AT END OF FLARE
ISSUE TIME: Tue Nov 11 12:10:14 UTC 2025
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Approximate Flare Start : 11-11-2025 0958 UT
Approximate Flare Maximum: 11-11-2025 1004 UT at Flux X 5.1 (R3)
Approximate Flare End : 11-11-2025 1205 UT
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Follow the progress of flares on web site
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au Click "Space Weather" Click "X-Ray Flux"
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC@bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au

_______________________________________________
ips-flare-alert mailing list
ips-flare-alert@ips.gov.au
https://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-flare-alert
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SUBJ: ASWFC GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING 25/92
ISSUED AT 1501UT/11 NOVEMBER 2025
BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE.

Three CMEs observed over 09-11 Nov are currently considered to
be en-route to Earth. Modelling suggests that the first two CMEs
will likely arrive at the Earth in short succession, with an
estimated arrival time of 12/0200UT +/- 6 hours. The third CME
is estimated to arrive at 12/1200UT +/- 12 hours.

INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED
DUE TO CORONAL MASS EJECTION
FROM 11-13 NOVEMBER 2025
_____________________________________________________________

GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST
11 Nov: G2-G3
12 Nov: G4, chance G5
13 Nov: G2-G3

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC@bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
 
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  • #438
This going to be a very significant event
QUOTE....
""A 'GROUND LEVEL EVENT' IS UNDERWAY: Today's X5-class solar flare from sunspot 4274 hurled a fusillade of energetic protons toward Earth. Some of the particles are so powerful, they are penetrating the atmosphere all the way to the ground. "This is a very significant event," says Professor Clive Dyer of the Surrey Space Centre. "Neutron monitors around the world are detecting it.""" End Quote

Be prepared for aurora all over Canada, into mid-states, USA. Upper South Island , NZ, southern Australia
All over Iceland, Norway, Sweden and probably to mid- European countries
 
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  • #439
Nov. 12, 2025
THE STORM IS NOT OVER: Last night, auroras spread across the Americas as far south as El Salvador during a severe geomagnetic storm. The lights were seen in at least 45 US states. It could happen again tonight if another CME arrives, as expected. NOAA predicts more severe storming on Nov. 12th.


3f18bba0-84b9-ace7-f0b3-ccbd58779ec4.webp
Above: Red auroras over Rio Verde, Arizona, on Nov. 11, 2025. Photo Credit: Brandon Larsen​
.
 
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  • #440
On Nov. 11, the storm reached severe G4 level, with Kp 8.67, and on Nov. 12, G2/G3, with Kp 7.33. Auroras were seen as south as [record breaking (?)] 13 degrees (e.g. El Salvador) ..., and the events these past days (including the ground event) were almost comparable to the May 11 & 12, 2024 events ... (whereas back then the storm even reached the extreme level of G5 and Kp 9, for a short period of time ...).

New significant flare, today Nov. 14:

ANOTHER POWERFUL X-FLARE: Active sunspot 4274 erupted again today, producing a powerful X4-class solar flare. Unlike earlier explosions this week, this one was not squarely aimed at Earth. Even so, a CME is expected to deliver a glancing blow to our planet's magnetic field, and a geomagnetic storm watch is in effect for Nov. 16-17.


9503d0f9-61be-3a3d-2eed-24eb795956f1.webp
Above: An X4-class solar flare on Nov. 14, 2025. Credit: NASA/SDO​
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