Will Solar Power Outshine Oil in the Near Future?

[wolram]

If you can spare the time to listen to this ADVERT, do you believe solar power will over take oil?

http://pro.moneyweekresearch.com/FTI-launch-29AIMAD/PFTIS7A1/Full?h=true

 

[Bystander]

No.

 

[Bandersnatch]

Yes. One is renewable, the other isn't, so it's a no-brainer. When will it happen, is another matter altogether.

I don't believe the snake oil seller in the ad, though.

 

[wolram]

Yes. One is renewable, the other isn't, so it's a no-brainer. When will it happen, is another matter altogether.

I don't believe the snake oil seller in the ad, though.

Do you believe in this spray on technology for glass, if it does work can you imagine a sky scraper with this treatment powering itself?

 

[Bandersnatch]

I'm not qualified nor informed enough to say anything about the tech, including whether it exists or not.

 

[Borek]

can you imagine a sky scraper with this treatment powering itself?

Do the numbers add? Surface combined with insolation and cells efficiency vs kW needed to run the building?

 

[wolram]

Do the numbers add? Surface combined with insolation and cells efficiency vs kW needed to run the building?

Have you listened to the advert, no figures are given, i would like to know is this technology even exists, if it does then i can imagine a large green house combined with roof mounted solar panels on ones house producing enough power to provide ones needs.

 

[Borek]

What I mean is that everyone can try to estimate if the numbers work, regardless of the ad (which I haven't seen - and actually I don't plan to )

 

[gleem]

Do you believe in this spray on technology for glass, if it does work can you imagine a sky scraper with this treatment powering itself?

One thing that bothers me is if the transparency of the windows are not affected then how much energy is absorbed to produce the electricity?

Presently current technology is not that cheap or care free. Currently the average opaque solar cell which absorbs most of the light energy produces about 8-10 watts/sqft of power at full sun and normal incidence. The usual daily sun exposure is generally estimated to be equivalent to 5 hrs/day of normal full sun incidence for a horizontal array of panels. Thus one can expect about 0.045 kW-hrs/sqft of energy produced per day on average. Since an average US home uses about 30 kW-hrs of energy per day one needs about 670 sq ft of panels. One brand of panels is about 10.5 sq ft for that power requirement so you need 64 panels. But this is just to produce the energy that the house uses each day when the sky is clear. The ultimate goals is to be off the grid and produce and store your energy so you need a higher power rating to take care of those cloudy winter days. You may easily need more than twice the number of panels in northern climates.

The storage is another issue. Since it is possible to be without significant sun for several days you need more storage capacity (more batteries). Today the most cost effective battery is the lead acid storage battery and in particluar the 6V golf cart battery (Trojan T105) about $100 ea. These batteries can store about 0.75kw-hrs of usable energy on average.(50% of total capacity) before recharge. The reason you don't use the total capacity is that in doing so you decrease the service life of the battery significantly. Typically when only using 50% per charge cycle the batter may be useful for up to 10 years. Since you may need to run off the batteries for up to three or more days you must not use more than about 17% of their capacity each day. this means you may need up to about 235 ($23,000) of these 6V batteries (14,600 lbs.) and occupy about 121 sq ft of floor space. These batteries have to be monitored for electrolyte level monthly and ventilated for hydrogen release and acidic fumes. You need some accessories such as charge controllers for the batteries, the voltage converters for the AC appliances.probably a PC with power management SW to monitor the production and use of the energy to make sure you use it efficiently. Other issues include monitoring the panels for damage and dirt.

Some day solar power my replace fossil fuel but fossil fuel supplies are still plentiful and cheaper and could last to the end of the century. There is a lot of money in petroleum and the supporting industries which will fight solar adoption too. Perhaps climate change concerns will accelerate the switch over. Problems of too much energy being produced in California during the day has resulted in the power companies not accepting power from consumer solar panels because the grid cannot handle both the companies normal production and that of the energy sold back by the consumer. So the consumer does not get his anticipated payback.

Solar is not quite so clear as it is sold.

 

[gleem]

one comment about the advert.

It focused on the increase in value of Solar City and Canadian Solar in 2014 at $85 and $41 respectively Today they are today $22.50 and 12.90 respectively. The investment community is not so optimistic as the commentator would lead you to believe..

 

[EnumaElish]

Solar is as much about transmission capacity as it is about storage. Vast areas of Earth receive sunlight almost year round. Improve transmission and you will not need storage.

 

[nikkkom]

Currently the average opaque solar cell which absorbs most of the light energy produces about 8-10 watts/sqft of power at full sun and normal incidence.

That would be 10% efficient cell. This was "currently" some 3-5 years ago.

Today, "cheap" cells (ones you would buy for a solar power plant, not for comsat) are 20%.

 

[Blank_Stare]

Solar is as much about transmission capacity as it is about storage. Vast areas of Earth receive sunlight almost year round. Improve transmission and you will not need storage.

Let's assume that we accomplish this goal, and perfect a method to transmit electrical power from a PV source, to an end user, anywhere on earth, 24/7/365.

OK, I know people will want to argue the above premise, but I am just tossing it out there, so that we can discuss this question:

In a global network, at times when demand is less than what is available, what will we do with the excess energy, if not store it in batteries?

I'm not an electrical engineer, or energy physicist, so I'm really curious what we would do with that extra energy? What else could function as a buffer to the natural up and down cycles of daily power consumption? Wouldn't we indeed be forced to have some batteries in-line, so we could shut off the PV units that were un-needed, and use the excess power? Wouldn't they be required, in order to accommodate surges, as certain parts of the world that are heavily populated fell into darkness?

I'm not picking on you, EnumaElish, I just want to better understand how a global network like you are alluding to could function.

 

[Borek]

In a global network, at times when demand is less than what is available, what will we do with the excess energy, if not store it in batteries?

You don't need batteries to store energy. For an example google for pumped-storage hydroelectricity. There were also attempts to use heated water, compressed air, magnetic fields, hydrogen produced by electrolysis and so on for the storage. Most likely not all of them are practical/viable, but it is not like we lack other options.

 

[zoobyshoe]

Storage is an automatic consideration with wind and solar for the obvious reason that neither is an "on demand" source of energy. Like Borek said, there are many ways to store energy and, I'll add, more people exploring unconventional ways of doing that than you'd expect.

Regardless, I don't think anyone is thinking in terms of the sunny side of the Earth powering the dark side. The issue of solar storage is more a matter of simply getting day to power night at normal grid ranges. I also don't think anyone is planning to have solar as the exclusive power source.

 

[Physics_Kid]

when one resource runs out, another will takes its place. solar maybe, power densities per area are increasing (aka efficiency). surface area for solar are a key constraint.

a skyscraper that powers itself?? but only until the sun goes down, then the whole building becomes dark and cold :(

the flip side, oil hoarders love solar, why? because solar can offset the massive use of oil thus slowing down the pumping of oil, so instead of $20 billion a month for the next 150 yrs, they have $5billion a month for the next ~400yrs.

oil will be around for a long time even with the introduction of newer/better technologies in large salt water batteries, solar, wind, nuke, coal, plant fuels, etc.

 

[Blank_Stare]

Storage is an automatic consideration with wind and solar for the obvious reason that neither is an "on demand" source of energy.

Well, that was more or less what I thought, but since I'm not an expert...

Regardless, I don't think anyone is thinking in terms of the sunny side of the Earth powering the dark side.

I entirely agree... Still, it does create an interesting mental exercise in "What if?"...

 

[zoobyshoe]

I entirely agree... Still, it does create an interesting mental exercise in "What if?"...

Absolutely. But I'm thinking people are already all over this problem, collecting any and all info about any breakthrough that might be applied to cutting transmission losses in electrical grids.

 

[Physics_Kid]

Absolutely. But I'm thinking people are already all over this problem, collecting any and all info about any breakthrough that might be applied to cutting transmission losses in electrical grids.

grid? I'm thinking large solar mirrors that redirect light to where its needed?

 

[Blank_Stare]

You don't need batteries to store energy. For an example google for pumped-storage hydroelectricity. There were also attempts to use heated water, compressed air, magnetic fields, hydrogen produced by electrolysis and so on for the storage. Most likely not all of them are practical/viable, but it is not like we lack other options.

In fact, however, aren't all of those batteries, of a sort?...Are they not just storing energy for later conversion and consumption? I know our first image, when we hear the word "battery" is a device we plug into a toy, flashlight, or automobile, but just because it isn't electrical in nature doesn't make the water behind a dam any less of a battery... or am I mistaken in believing that it is just a matter of semantics?

I guess the post I replied to sounded to me like we would be able to do away with storing energy, and just use it direct, on demand, generating just as much as we needed... and I had trouble with that concept, based on the cyclical, unpredictable, and surge-prone nature of energy usage. (I know, predictable within a range, but that takes us back to having too much, or too little at any given time...)

But I think it's clear now.!

Thanks

 

[Blank_Stare]

grid? I'm thinking large solar mirrors that redirect light to where its needed?

I think Ronald Reagan called that Star Wars...

LOL!

Besides, as soon as you have a collection of them, you have... a grid - whether they are connected by wires or not.

 

[Physics_Kid]

i not sure you can create a grid of mirrors. to direct light via mirrors, don't you need a string of 1 or more and only that string can direct the light from source to destination?

 

[Blank_Stare]

Absolutely. But I'm thinking people are already all over this problem, collecting any and all info about any breakthrough that might be applied to cutting transmission losses in electrical grids.

I read somewhere, (American Scientific, I believe,) maybe five years ago, about powering communities using electricity transmitted through pipes that were cooled to near absolute zero, which contained liquid hydrogen, which would take the place of propane and natural gas, and gasoline, for heating and transportation. The idea was to bring all required energy sources via one source. (Yeah, your private gas pump in your driveway.) Seems to me that they had a small prototype set up at some University - something like a quarter-mile run. If I recall, they were excited about the minimal loss of power, due to the extreme cold making the pipe function as a super conductor.

Sadly, I have not heard anything new about this intriguing idea since then.

 

[Blank_Stare]

i not sure you can create a grid of mirrors. to direct light via mirrors, don't you need a string of 1 or more and only that string can direct the light from source to destination?

I would personally consider all of the ones feeding the main mirror to be a "grid"... But that may be more a question of how I use the word, than technical specifications.

In much the same manner, I consider GPS satellites to be a "grid", even though my device might only connect to several at once. I guess what I mean, is that shown graphically, or geographically, the collector, whatever they are, when represented on a map, would form a grid pattern, when you start connecting them to the consumer. Depending on the deployment, it might look like a fishing net, or it might look like an octopus, but I believe, in the strictest sense, both forms would be considered a grid.

Unless I'm wrong - and I have an advanced degree in "Wrong"... So this is not unanticipated.

 

[Physics_Kid]

i look at it from a laser perspective. you aim and reflect the laser, so the path is set, to change the path you have to change the direction of the 1st reflected source mirror, but this is not the same as a grid of wires that all transmit the signal at the same time, and if one wire breaks the full signal still flows w/o intervention. if a mirror breaks you lose a part of the signal.

i could be wrong.

 

[Blank_Stare]

i look at it from a laser perspective. you aim and reflect the laser, so the path is set, to change the path you have to change the direction of the 1st reflected source mirror, but this is not the same as a grid of wires that all transmit the signal at the same time, and if one wire breaks the full signal still flows w/o intervention. if a mirror breaks you lose a part of the signal.

i could be wrong.

You are looking at it from the micro viewpoint - one mirror/laser can not a grid make. Therefore you are correct.

I look at it from the macro. Dozens, or perhaps hundreds or more mirrors, stationed all over the planet. No matter where the mirrors point their energy, or even if they are activated at all, when you look at where they are physically located on a map, you have a dispersed pattern. When they are active, it doesn't matter if they are pointing all at the same receiver, or if each points at a unique receiver, you still have a network, or grid. Therefore, I am also correct.

Don't get hung up on the electrical grid that we have in use to power our homes to formulate a definition. That system is intentionally designed a bit like a fishnet for the sake of redundancy. That is not the only form a grid can take.

"a framework of spaced bars that are parallel to or cross each other; a grating."

I would argue that "parallel" is not a requirement either, for our purposes.

Advanced Degrees in "Wrong". Yes, I have made a study of being wrong.

 

[gleem]

In a global network, at times when demand is less than what is available, what will we do with the excess energy, if not store it in batteries?

Was working on a response to nikkom and EnumaElish before the rash of posts.

Today, "cheap" cells (ones you would buy for a solar power plant, not for comsat) are 20%.

I knew that, where did I get the 8-10w/sqft.? Probably just mindlessly copying it off the internet. Panels that I purchased in 2009 where rated 130 watts had an area of about 8sq ft. so that is 15 watt/sq ft..

Solar is as much about transmission capacity as it is about storage. Vast areas of Earth receive sunlight almost year round. Improve transmission and you will not need storage.

Storage will still be needed. Look at replacing all sources with solar. Take the US. The best place for solar farm is the southwest still only getting about 5 full sun hours equivalent per day with about 16 hours of no to near no power output. Considering that they are located in a restricted section of the country a new power grid will be needed
The power lines will not only have to carry the immediately used energy but also the stored energy which will be 2 to 3 times the energy used during generation. The US has a generating capacity of about 1000G W for a summer day. 8000G Whrs of energy used during the generation period. This will require a storage capacity of from 16000 -24000G w hrs to just carry over to the next day.

Elon Musk of Tesla is selling Li-ion storage cells he call the "POWEWALL" which can store 14K Whrs. He currently sell them form $6200 apiece with installation costing $800 to $2000. An average home would need about four to five of these batteries just to meet the maximum energy requirements. The daily average US energy usage is about 11B kWhrs. which means that the country would need 786 M POWERWALL batteries at a current cost of $4.9T. These batteries cost about $400 per stored kWhr but it is believed that new technology will bring this cost down to $100 per kWhr stored which is the same as the current lead-acid batteries. Actually the usable energy stored in a Lead acid battery is only 1/2 of the maximum since taking more out significantly reduces the life of the battery. So the new technology may be a significant improvement.

As for other storage methods I looked at elevating water and have it drive a turbine since it is technologically straightforward. If you assume that the average home can have a maximum demand of 60 kWhrs (216Mj) per day and are able to elevate the water to a height of 100 m above the generator one would need to pump about 220,000 L which is a sphere about 7.5 m in diameter equivalent to 7.5 4ft x 18ft circular pools. That is for one full day of power, you would need about 1/2 -3/4 of that for the non generating periods There are about 125M households in the US.

If you want to go off the grid you definitely need batteries or other storage device so for a 60 kwhr max daily energy need and maybe a 12Kw instantaneous power requirement requirement would require about 800 sq ft of solar panels for which most houses do not have adequate roof exposure/area so se aside some of your back yard.

One nice think about solar panels if you do not need the power you just don't turn anything on. With a generator running with no draw you still use energy . You must turn it off. when not using electricity.

For the more eastern part of the country where clouds are prevalent you might want 3 days of backup power or about 12 POWEWALL batteries or 150 deep cycle lead acid batteries.

Rambled a bit but all said and done I think solar will be just one of many power sources we will be using into the foreseeable future. Some countries will use more and some less.

 

[Blank_Stare]

One nice think about solar panels if you do not need the power you just don't turn anything on. With a generator running with no draw you still use energy . You must turn it off. when not using electricity.

So, if I am using solar, and I don't use the full amount of power generated, is there any negative affect on my system? Can something overheat?, or maybe the Cells degrade?... In other words, if I only need power during generating hours, and I produce more than I need, should I be concerned?... or can I simply use it "on demand", with no consequences?

If that were the case, and PV farms providing power "in excess of demand" could be set up around the world in strategic locations, it just might be, that we could do without batteries. I'm not saying that it's very practical, but is it possible?

 

[nikkkom]

Storage will still be needed. Look at replacing all sources with solar. Take the US. The best place for solar farm is the southwest still only getting about 5 full sun hours equivalent per day with about 16 hours of no to near no power output. Considering that they are located in a restricted section of the country a new power grid will be needed
The power lines will not only have to carry the immediately used energy but also the stored energy which will be 2 to 3 times the energy used during generation. The US has a generating capacity of about 1000G W for a summer day. 8000G Whrs of energy used during the generation period. This will require a storage capacity of from 16000 -24000G w hrs to just carry over to the next day.

Elon Musk of Tesla is selling Li-ion storage cells he call the "POWEWALL" which can store 14K Whrs. He currently sell them form $6200 apiece with installation costing $800 to $2000. An average home would need about four to five of these batteries just to meet the maximum energy requirements.

For large storage projects, Tesla sells Powerpack, a fridge-sized outdoor cabinet with batteries capable of storing 210 kWh (same as 14 Powerwalls). Price for large installations appears to be ~$47k per one Powerpack.

https://www.tesla.com/powerpack

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y0QbHB49D98

 

[nitsuj]

One thing that bothers me is if the transparency of the windows are not affected then how much energy is absorbed to produce the electricity?

Presently current technology is not that cheap or care free. Currently the average opaque solar cell which absorbs most of the light energy produces about 8-10 watts/sqft of power at full sun and normal incidence. The usual daily sun exposure is generally estimated to be equivalent to 5 hrs/day of normal full sun incidence for a horizontal array of panels. Thus one can expect about 0.045 kW-hrs/sqft of energy produced per day on average. Since an average US home uses about 30 kW-hrs of energy per day one needs about 670 sq ft of panels. One brand of panels is about 10.5 sq ft for that power requirement so you need 64 panels. But this is just to produce the energy that the house uses each day when the sky is clear. The ultimate goals is to be off the grid and produce and store your energy so you need a higher power rating to take care of those cloudy winter days. You may easily need more than twice the number of panels in northern climates.

The storage is another issue. Since it is possible to be without significant sun for several days you need more storage capacity (more batteries). Today the most cost effective battery is the lead acid storage battery and in particluar the 6V golf cart battery (Trojan T105) about $100 ea. These batteries can store about 0.75kw-hrs of usable energy on average.(50% of total capacity) before recharge. The reason you don't use the total capacity is that in doing so you decrease the service life of the battery significantly. Typically when only using 50% per charge cycle the batter may be useful for up to 10 years. Since you may need to run off the batteries for up to three or more days you must not use more than about 17% of their capacity each day. this means you may need up to about 235 ($23,000) of these 6V batteries (14,600 lbs.) and occupy about 121 sq ft of floor space. These batteries have to be monitored for electrolyte level monthly and ventilated for hydrogen release and acidic fumes. You need some accessories such as charge controllers for the batteries, the voltage converters for the AC appliances.probably a PC with power management SW to monitor the production and use of the energy to make sure you use it efficiently. Other issues include monitoring the panels for damage and dirt.

Some day solar power my replace fossil fuel but fossil fuel supplies are still plentiful and cheaper and could last to the end of the century. There is a lot of money in petroleum and the supporting industries which will fight solar adoption too. Perhaps climate change concerns will accelerate the switch over. Problems of too much energy being produced in California during the day has resulted in the power companies not accepting power from consumer solar panels because the grid cannot handle both the companies normal production and that of the energy sold back by the consumer. So the consumer does not get his anticipated payback.

Solar is not quite so clear as it is sold.

yup and using a wrench to hammer a nail doesn't work too well either.

Perhaps the availability of electricity makes allot of appliances rather impractical for solar cell / battery cell power sources, not to mention the habits associated with a constant supply of electricity...the losses going from solar cell, to charger, to battery, to power inverter to some device that may in turn convert the electricity again to some other value must be a material amount.

Not sure that pb batts are practical for electricity storage either, besides the issue you mention they self discharge a material amount. I'd argue that a portable 6v pb is probably the worst available battery for such a use. "Cost effective" for energy storage should be a measure of more than the selling price, AND costed against alternatives.

imo nothing wrong with the efficiency of panels, nor the power / sq foot in ideal conditions. I find it remarkable such a thing is possible; It's funny you mention maintenance on the panel such as ensuring they're clean. I find them to be the most maintenance free way to generate electricity...we're talking photons doing the "work" here..the panel sits there. No-one will

Useful life of a panel would be interesting to know.