Uncertainties in climate models

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SUMMARY

The discussion focuses on the uncertainties present in climate models, specifically seeking references that detail these uncertainties for a specific model, including input data uncertainties, modeling factors like cloud cover, and discretization issues. The poster emphasizes the need for a comprehensive source that summarizes these uncertainties and inquires about publicly available model code. The mention of Google RCP8.5 indicates a specific scenario of interest, highlighting the challenges in finding consolidated information on this topic.

PREREQUISITES
  • Understanding of climate modeling concepts
  • Familiarity with uncertainty quantification in scientific models
  • Knowledge of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios, particularly RCP8.5
  • Basic programming skills to explore publicly available climate model code
NEXT STEPS
  • Research the uncertainties in climate modeling, focusing on specific models and their documentation
  • Explore the details of the RCP8.5 scenario and its implications for climate projections
  • Investigate publicly available climate model codes and their repositories
  • Learn about uncertainty quantification techniques used in climate science
USEFUL FOR

Climate scientists, environmental researchers, policy makers, and anyone involved in climate modeling and analysis will benefit from this discussion.

kdv
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I have seen that many posters here seem to be very knowledgeable about the man made climate "emergency".

So someone can surely point out a reference where all the sources of uncertainties for at least one specific model are provided with an estimate of their values (for examples, uncertainties in the data used as input, uncertainties due to modelling of various factors (cloud cover, etc ), uncertainties due to discretization, etc). Also, are there any of these models whose code is available to the public?

Thank you in advance to those who are knowledgeable about this topic.
 
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Google RCP8.5
 
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phinds said:
Google RCP8.5
Thank you. I had googled several of these scenarios but never found any references that specifically address the questions I raised in my first post. So if anyone know of a specific reference covering these questions, I would be grateful.
 
Keith_McClary said:
Thank you. Yes, this is helpful. I had looked at many of these but could not find a source that included all the uncertainties summarized and given for a specific model, so I was hoping someone would know of a specific source that would provide this. But I guess I will have to follow your suggestion and try to gather all the details from various sources.
 
We don't discuss climate change outside of the verified science, so this thread is locked. I know there is a lot of doubt and discrepancies, which is why we can't control discussions here.
 
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