Uncertainties in climate models

In summary, there is a discussion about uncertainties in man-made climate change and the availability of specific references for a model's uncertainties. The topic is limited to verified science, and any doubts or discrepancies are not allowed to be discussed.
  • #1
kdv
348
6
I have seen that many posters here seem to be very knowledgeable about the man made climate "emergency".

So someone can surely point out a reference where all the sources of uncertainties for at least one specific model are provided with an estimate of their values (for examples, uncertainties in the data used as input, uncertainties due to modelling of various factors (cloud cover, etc ), uncertainties due to discretization, etc). Also, are there any of these models whose code is available to the public?

Thank you in advance to those who are knowledgeable about this topic.
 
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  • #3
phinds said:
Google RCP8.5
Thank you. I had googled several of these scenarios but never found any references that specifically address the questions I raised in my first post. So if anyone know of a specific reference covering these questions, I would be grateful.
 
  • #5
Keith_McClary said:
Thank you. Yes, this is helpful. I had looked at many of these but could not find a source that included all the uncertainties summarized and given for a specific model, so I was hoping someone would know of a specific source that would provide this. But I guess I will have to follow your suggestion and try to gather all the details from various sources.
 
  • #6
We don't discuss climate change outside of the verified science, so this thread is locked. I know there is a lot of doubt and discrepancies, which is why we can't control discussions here.
 
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Likes jim mcnamara and phinds

Related to Uncertainties in climate models

1. What are uncertainties in climate models?

Uncertainties in climate models refer to the potential errors or limitations in the predictions and projections made by these models. These uncertainties can arise from various sources such as incomplete data, simplifications in the model, and natural variability in the climate system.

2. How do uncertainties affect the reliability of climate model predictions?

Uncertainties can significantly impact the reliability of climate model predictions. They can introduce errors and biases in the results, making it challenging to accurately predict future climate conditions. The larger the uncertainties, the less reliable the predictions become.

3. What are the main sources of uncertainties in climate models?

The main sources of uncertainties in climate models include natural variability in the climate system, incomplete data, simplifications in the model, and uncertainties in the understanding of certain physical processes. Other factors such as human activities and external forcing can also contribute to uncertainties.

4. How do scientists address uncertainties in climate models?

Scientists use various techniques to address uncertainties in climate models, such as running multiple simulations with different parameters, incorporating more comprehensive and accurate data, and improving the understanding of physical processes. They also use statistical methods to quantify and reduce uncertainties in the results.

5. Can uncertainties in climate models be eliminated?

No, uncertainties in climate models cannot be entirely eliminated. The Earth's climate system is complex and ever-changing, and there will always be some level of uncertainty in predicting its future behavior. However, through continuous advancements in technology and data collection, scientists can reduce uncertainties and improve the reliability of climate model predictions.

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