News US Midterm Elections - Predictions and Post-mortems

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The discussion centers on predictions and analyses surrounding the US Midterm Elections. Participants share their forecasts for Senate and House outcomes, with some expecting a Republican gain in the House while Democrats might retain the Senate. There is a notable focus on voter turnout, with many expressing concern over low engagement and the influence of organized groups like the Tea Party. Candidates such as Bob Inglis and Rick Snyder are highlighted as preferred choices among some voters. Overall, the sentiment reflects a mix of anticipation and disappointment regarding the election results and their implications for future political dynamics.
  • #91
mheslep said:
Ugh, CNN just can't resists inserting commentary.

So they say ...


Which could have just as easily been said this way with the exact same fact set:

You consider that commentary? Please, I have see much worse in the Wall Street Journal.
 
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  • #92
Astronuc said:
Ugh! She unfortunately got re-elected with 80% of the votes in her district (District 8 in Ca). She seems to be in denial as well as being delusional - like so many in DC.

She isn't in denial. She is standing on principle.

What exactly is she allegedly in denial about?

You think CNN introduces too much commentary but you cite Colbert? I am so confused!
 
  • #93
Gokul43201 said:
You really think the 2008 election result was a call for more conservatism? Have you come across a single person other than yourself that shares this view (just curious)?

Do you think people actually voted for Obama for big government? I would be interested in the numbers you refer to, not saying you are wrong on those at all, but I mean, I remember during the Bush years all sorts of railing about the deficits and debt and excessive spending done by the Bush administration. Was all of that for nought? Maybe the numbers show differently, but I think very much the people wanted more conservatism, because we didn't have conservatism during the Bush years. Bush governed more like a socially-conservative Democrat, not any fiscally-conservative Republican.

In 2006, many of the Democrats elected ran on center-right platforms. This was a strategy the Democrats used to build up their numbers.

Part of the reason for the reaction against Obama is because he and the Democrats saw the '08 election as a mandate for him to change America over to a European-style model. The "Era of Reagan" was declared as over.

But the reality it seems is that all of this was not true. The country did not shift to being center-left. So Obama gets elected and immediately seeks to change America. This leads to the Tea Party movement because America isn't like France or Germany.
 
  • #94
CAC1001 said:
Do you think people actually voted for Obama for big government?
What's the alternative? People had a choice between Obama and McCain, and they picked Obama because they thought he (the militant socialist/communist/most liberal Dem in the Senate/etc.) was more likely to bring back Conservatism?
I would be interested in the numbers you refer to, not saying you are wrong on those at all, but I mean, I remember during the Bush years all sorts of railing about the deficits and debt and excessive spending done by the Bush administration. Was all of that for nought?
Most of those people would have voted for McCain.

Maybe the numbers show differently, but I think very much the people wanted more conservatism, because we didn't have conservatism during the Bush years. Bush governed more like a socially-conservative Democrat, not any fiscally-conservative Republican.
Some segment of the electorate wanted more Conservatism. That was not the segment that showed up in record numbers to vote in Obama.

I've provided links to the exit polling numbers in the post you quoted.

But here's another set of numbers to consider: at least as many people think the healthcare bill doesn't go far enough as those who think it goes too far. And it's that first group that are much more likely to be people that voted in Obama.

[PLAIN]http://theplumline.whorunsgov.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/01/cbshealth3.jpg

http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/pdf/poll_obama_011110.pdf?tag=contentMain;contentBody
 
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  • #95
Ivan Seeking said:
She isn't in denial. She is standing on principle.

What exactly is she allegedly in denial about?

You think CNN introduces too much commentary but you cite Colbert? I am so confused!
CNN is supposed to be a news organization, as opposed to an entertainment organization. Colbert's program is entertainment.

I don't care for infotainment or entertainment disguised as news. I want the facts, not somebody's opinion of what they think the facts are.
 
  • #96
Gokul43201 said:
What's the alternative? People had a choice between Obama and McCain, and they picked Obama because they thought he (the militant socialist/communist/most liberal Dem in the Senate/etc.) was more likely to bring back Conservatism?

I would say they picked him because:

1) He didn't run as a hardcore liberal during the General, he ran that way during the Primary

2) McCain looked and sounded like a clueless idiot when the economy was on the verge of collapse (during the campaign, he had even said he "doesn't understand the economy")

3) The Republican party and Bush were hugely unpopular from corruption to people blaming Bush for the financial crises and seeing McCain as more of Bush.

4) Obama seemed like something truly fresh and new to many people

I do not think the people elected Obama in for big government.

Most of those people would have voted for McCain.

Would have to disagree. Plenty of Democrats railed about Bush's spending, Democrats railed about Ronald Reagan's spending as well during the 1980s as well. Many said Bush's Medicare program was unfunded.

That said, quite a few people did still vote for McCain. Obama won solidly, but it was not a smashing landslide victory.

Some segment of the electorate wanted more Conservatism. That was not the segment that showed up in record numbers to vote in Obama.

By "conservatism," were these people thinking more of George W. Bush and the Republicans or the literal definition of fiscal conservatism and limited government? Also not everyone who voted for Obama wanted big government. Many when asked why they were voting Obama said they didn't buy the Republican claim that Obama was some massive big-government guy or anything like that, center-left, sure, but not hard left.

But here's another set of numbers to consider: more people think the healthcare bill doesn't go far enough than those who think it goes too far. Moreover, it's that first group that are much more likely to be people that voted in Obama.

[PLAIN]http://theplumline.whorunsgov.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/01/cbshealth3.jpg

http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/pdf/poll_obama_011110.pdf?tag=contentMain;contentBody

I think it depends on what poll you look at:

http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/2825202/rasmussens_health_care_poll_shows_55.html?cat=9

http://thehill.com/blogs/healthwatc...112143-poll-majority-favors-healthcare-repeal

http://www.examiner.com/political-b...h-care-reform-bill-with-contradictory-results

http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2010-03-23-health-poll-favorable_N.htm
 
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  • #97
I was looking for some numbers on what the US government spends on medicare. Here's a reference:
http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/TRSUM/index.html

I wanted to see what the government spends in relation to the nearly $2 trillion spent on health care. Health care is supposed to be a growing field (more jobs), but who is supposed to pay for it if people can't afford it? Or do we just ration it to those who can afford it?
 
  • #98
CAC1001 said:
How many of those links provide a comparison between people that believed the bill didn't go far enough with those that believe it went too far?

While the numbers I cited show the "not far enough" group as exceeding the "too far" group by anywhere from 3% to 16% depending on the aspect of bill in question, I specifically used the words "at least as many" to cover any differences between polls. But that's just supplemental and not the direct answer to the question.

The direct answer is very clear in the exit polls. Despite asking for the numbers, it seems you've not looked at them yet. Let's make it easier:

Here's the link to the relevant page (pg 3) of the exit poll: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=USP00p3

And here's the specific table:

261jg2v.png


To summarize, among the group that voted for Obama, about 77% wanted Govt to "do more" and about 23% believed it was "doing too much". I hope that's clear enough.
 
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  • #99
Astronuc said:
I was looking for some numbers on what the US government spends on medicare. Here's a reference:
http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/TRSUM/index.html

I wanted to see what the government spends in relation to the nearly $2 trillion spent on health care.
About http://www.gpoaccess.gov/usbudget/fy10/pdf/summary.pdf" next year for Medicare alone. The government's total health care tab, including Medicare, Medicaid, Veterans, is about half of the total medical dollars spent in the US.

Health care is supposed to be a growing field (more jobs), but who is supposed to pay for it if people can't afford it? Or do we just ration it to those who can afford it?
Seems to me that the answer is the same as it is for every other important product of our society - food, transportation, housing, entertainment - get the government out of the way and let the market do what it always does - produce an inexpensive product that nearly every American can afford.
 
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  • #100
If I may remind posters (including myself), this thread is about the elections. Let's try to keep discussion close to that topic.
 
  • #101
Jasongreat said:
As I see it the 2006 and 2008 elections were a rebuttal of the big spending, big government Rino's, or progressive republicans. There were huge numbers of independents and republicans who voted for change, too bad, the change was bigger spending and bigger government. Those same independents and republicans are who voted yesterday to give power back to republicans, but looking into my crystal ball, if those republicans now continue big government policies, they won't be in congress long, and as far as that goes if some democrats don't stand by them, they will also be booted next vote.

2006 & 2008 were a statement that voters were unhappy, period. Considering the Tea Party movement bucked the Republican establishment almost as it did Democrats, I'd say the 2010 election makes the same statement.

Gallup polls on the direction of the country immediately before the last 6 elections:

Year - Right track - Wrong track
2010 - 22% - 75%
2008 - 13% - 85%
2006 - 30% - 68%
2004 - 44% - 53%
2002 - 48% - 47%
2000 - 62% - 36%

Gallup polls on Congress's job ratings:

Year - Good job - Bad job
2010 - 21% - 73%
2008 - 18% - 77%
2006 - 26% - 63%
2004 - 40% - 51%
2002 - 50% - 40%
2000 - 49% - 42%

I think there's general dissatisfaction that has little to do with Congress, itself. If people are unhappy, they blame politicians. I think the real culprit is the economy (with Bush/Iraq being the culprit in 2006).

I also think that's the reason an Obama reelection is very likely in 2012. Government policies do have an effect on how big the dips and the humps, but they don't stop the economy's up and down cycles. (In fact, one might say government policies may push the economy ahead of where it should naturally be, meaning the economy has to eventually slow down to return it's natural path or government policies may slow the economy down, meaning the economy eventually has to boom to catch up to where it should naturally be - I'm not sure whether government interference smooths the curves or amplifies them).

One way or another, a recession only lasts for so long. Good news for winners of this year's election and good news for Obama. It's good to get elected in a recession.

Or I'm wrong and we'll still be in a recession in 2012. Horrible news for both Obama and this year's Congressional winners (not to mention bad news for the average person).
 
  • #102
mheslep said:
About http://www.gpoaccess.gov/usbudget/fy10/pdf/summary.pdf" next year for Medicare alone. The government's total health care tab, including Medicare, Medicaid, Veterans, is about half of the total medical dollars spent in the US.

Seems to me that the answer is the same as it is for every other important product of our society - food, transportation, housing, entertainment - get the government out of the way and let the market do what it always does - produce an inexpensive product that nearly every American can afford.
Um - my experience is that the market does not want to make a product that every American can afford. Some insurers from experience want to collect premiums but don't want to pay claims - family experience. And talking to doctors, the insurance company doesn't want to reimburse doctors, or pay for brand prescription drugs (sometimes generics just don't work).

And how about the quality of medical care which can be uneven.

I think the government has a role (in theory). However, it seems there are those who become involved in government in order to make sure it doesn't work for the people (consituents).

Why should the market operate any differently than the government. Isn't it the same people? We wouldn't need government regulation if the market observed ethical and moral standards. Similarly, government doesn't work if those involved do not observe ethical and moral standards.
 
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  • #103
Best victory speech I've seen: Marco Rubio Fla. Father a bartender, mother a maid. He became a lawyer and speaker of the Fla House. Started 35 points down in the polls, survived the squishy Christ running as an independent after loosing the primary. Hmm, young guy, will have two years in the Senate as of '12. Where have we seen that before?
http://www.marcorubio.com/marco-rubios-victory-remarks/

Rubio said:
[...]
Tomorrow or even now, the stories are being written about what this election is about. What does it mean? And we still don’t know all the results from around this country.

But we know that tonight, the power in the United States House of Representatives will change hands. We know tonight that a growing number of Republicans will now serve in the Senate as well. And we make a grave mistake if we believe that tonight these results are somehow an embrace of the Republican Party.

What they are is a second chance. A second chance for Republicans to be what they said they were going to be not so long ago.

Americans believe with all their heart, the vast majority of them, and the vast majority of Floridians, that the United States of America is simply the single greatest nation in all of human history, a place without equal in the history of all mankind.

You see, when you’re 35 points down in the polls, and the only people who think you can win live in your house, and four of them are under the age of 10, you better know why you’re running.

When you have to drive four hours to get back home after speaking to 50 people and it’s 1:30 in the morning and the Garmin says there’s still an hour and a half to go and you’re not sure how you’re going to stay awake, you better know why you’re running.
[...]
But it was about the fact that we are privileged and blessed to be citizens of this extraordinary society, and that that is something worth fighting for. That we have the opportunity to ensure that our children and grandchildren are the freest and most prosperous Americans that ever lived.
[...]
And that ultimately, what this is all about stands before us, even as we speak. It is about whether we are going to be the first generation of Americans to leave our children worse off than ourselves, or the next generation that allow them to inherit what they deserve, inherit what we inherited, give to them what every generation before us has given to the next, the single greatest nation in all of human history.
 
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  • #104
Astronuc said:
Um - my experience is that the market does not want to make a product that every American can afford.
The medical industry in the US is not much of a free market (my point); one is forced essentially to get coverage only through your employer because of the tax laws and almost nobody actually pays out of pocket for medical service, Medicare costs are shifted onto private coverage, if you live in state X you are prevented from buying cheaper healthcare in state Y, etc, etc. My larger point is that everywhere else we look - food, transportation, housing - these things are affordable at a least a base level for everyone in the US with even the most modest of incomes. Does your experience show otherwise in these areas? Because prior to this age, it was certainly not the case. Those things were only all available to the wealthy. That, to my mind, is the promise of America, and not some guarantee from the government that these things will be made available, at least until the money runs out.
 
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  • #105
The Democratic Party leaders in Ohio explained the losses today (on the radio) - low turnout is to blame - nothing else.

This news outlet should be happy to hear they were right...
http://www.newsnet5.com/dpp/news/political/elections_local/cuyahoga-county-board-of-elections-director-disappointed-with-low-voter-turnout
 
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  • #106
Like I said, people with an agenda will go to greater lengths to organize and get people to the polls.

Now we will have to wait and see if the change turns out really bad. I'm sure a lot of rational people were elected, most of the over the top crazies didn't win.
 
  • #107
Astronuc said:
Um - my experience is that the market does not want to make a product that every American can afford. Some insurers from experience want to collect premiums but don't want to pay claims - family experience. And talking to doctors, the insurance company doesn't want to reimburse doctors, or pay for brand prescription drugs (sometimes generics just don't work).

And how about the quality of medical care which can be uneven.

I think the government has a role (in theory). However, it seems there are those who become involved in government in order to make sure it doesn't work for the people (consituents).

Why should the market operate any differently than the government. Isn't it the same people? We wouldn't need government regulation if the market observed ethical and moral standards. Similarly, government doesn't work if those involved do not observe ethical and moral standards.

We don't have a free market system when it comes to insurance.

Real reform would standardize regulations (1 set) and allow for a highly competitive marketplace - rather than 3 to 5 national companies with an exclusive. If done properly, consumers could have more than 200 companies competing for their business with a wide variety of products.
 
  • #108
WhoWee said:
The Democratic Party leaders in Ohio explained the losses today (on the radio) - low turnout is to blame - nothing else.

This news outlet should be happy to hear they were right...
http://www.newsnet5.com/dpp/news/political/elections_local/cuyahoga-county-board-of-elections-director-disappointed-with-low-voter-turnout

The notion that voter turnout explains the results is a fiction.

http://www.tnr.com/blog/william-gal...gn=f7bdd257b4-Edit_and_Blogs&utm_medium=email

The important bits:

In 2006, 38% of voters were Democrats. In 2010, the figure was 36%. Amazingly, Democratic voter turn out outperformed, given the scope of the shift in ideology, which is typical for off year elections (the most motivated voters - left and right - make up a disproportionate share of the electorate).

This bodes poorly for the Democrats in 2010, assuming no change in ideological trends. In 2006, 32% of voters said they were conservative, compared with 41% in 2010 - depsite no change in the proportion of voting Republicans.

Some insurers from experience want to collect premiums but don't want to pay claims - family experience.

Anecdotal evidence form a disgruntled relative whose insurer refused to pay a claim that was, in almost certain probability, invalid proves nothing. The rate of claims denial varies widely amongst private insurers, between 2.7% (UHC) and 6.8% (Aetna). Medicare has the highest decline rate, at 6.85%. Not surprisingly, many claims are denied due to technical errors (filing the wrong forms, not filling the forms out properly, etc). The more bureacratic, public health systems would logically be expected to have higher rates of technical rejections.

These were 2008 rates, and there may be newer data available. I can say with absolute confidence, however, that Medicare will continue to exceed average private sector rejection rates, even without seeing the data. Why is this? Certainly not the profit motive - even if we take it as a given that private insurers are generally more efficient claims processors than their public sector counterparts (a function of the profit motive - bureaucracies inflate their budgets by expanding payrolls regardless of efficiency, while competitive companies can be said to start with fixed potential revenues and work to minimize costs, the difference being profit), insurance companies make more money when they deny more claims. Market competition is a more likely factor. Medicare has a coverage monopoly, and doctors are more likely to accept it to gain access to its large insured population. On the other hand, insurance companies must compete both for covered consumers and participating providers. High claims denial rates make physicians less willing to accept the insurance, which drives individuals to seek coverage elsewhere.

Why should the market operate any differently than the government.

Individual participants in a competitive market are price takers - this means their marginal revenue for a given product is simply equal to the market price for it. They cannot, at the abstract, force that price higher or lower by increasing or decreasing the firms supply, because other suppliers (either existing or newly entering) will meet the difference.

The profit maximization problem, then, is purely a function of marginal cost. At the optimal, marginal costs equal marginal revenues (the last dollar spent on production generates one dollar in revenue). A competitive firm cannot affect marginal revenue, so its place on the industry supply curve is purely a function of its cost competitiveness. This determines how much it supplies, and how much revenue (and in turn profit) it generates.

Because a firm in a competitive market can only maximize profit by minimizing costs, it has an incentive to be more efficient - it has no other means of raising revenues or generating profits. A firm in a monopolized market is a price determinant; it can raise revenues by charging higher prices instead of reducing costs. This reduces the monopolists incentive to increase efficiency (defined as output/dollar). In the case of goods whose price elasticity of demand is relatively low, like healthcare, the monopolists power is increased. A consumer is unlikely to respond to rising prices or declining quality by consuming less.

This is a simple explanation for the abstract concept, "competitive firms are more efficient than monopolistic firms". Since government tends to be a monopoloizing market participant, we can expand this to say, "the market is more efficient than the government".
 
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  • #109
talk2glenn said:
The notion that voter turnout explains the results is a fiction.

http://www.tnr.com/blog/william-gal...gn=f7bdd257b4-Edit_and_Blogs&utm_medium=email

The important bits:

In 2006, 38% of voters were Democrats. In 2010, the figure was 36%. Amazingly, Democratic voter turn out outperformed, given the scope of the shift in ideology, which is typical for off year elections (the most motivated voters - left and right - make up a disproportionate share of the electorate).

This bodes poorly for the Democrats in 2010, assuming no change in ideological trends. In 2006, 32% of voters said they were conservative, compared with 41% in 2010 - depsite no change in the proportion of voting Republicans.

Two data points don't give enough information. Ideology is more constant than party affiliation. From the CCN exit polls (same source as your link, considering the numbers they used):

Code:
Year   Dem   Rep   Ind      Con   Mod   Lib
2010   36%   36%  28%    41%   39%   20%
2008   39%   32%  29%    34%   44%   22%
2006   38%   36%  26%    32%   47%   20%
2004   37%   37%  26%    34%   45%   21%

Four data points don't give enough information, either, but CNN's exit polls only go back so far. The idea that a person's ideology (Conservative, Moderate, Liberal) changes slower than his attitude about his political party is just an assumption. It could be wrong, since some people have more loyalty to their political party than their ideology (it's fun to be part of the team).

Still, a huge change in ideology does indicate an abnormal election where conservatives were much more motivated than moderates, and even liberals to a slight extent.

Another research poll on who was likely to vote and who wasn't:

The Party of Nonvoters
Midterm elections usualy tilt towards the most unsatisfied groups, hence the party of the President usually losing seats in midterm elections. Strangely, those affected the most by a bad economy were less likely to vote in this election.
 
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  • #110
BobG said:
Two data points don't give enough information. Ideology is more constant than party affiliation. From the CCN exit polls (same source as your link, considering the numbers they used):

Code:
Year   Dem   Rep   Ind      Con   Mod   Lib
2010   36%   36%  28%    41%   39%   20%
2008   39%   32%  29%    34%   44%   22%
2006   38%   36%  26%    32%   47%   20%
2004   37%   37%  26%    34%   45%   21%

Four data points don't give enough information, either, but CNN's exit polls only go back so far. The idea that a person's ideology (Conservative, Moderate, Liberal) changes slower than his attitude about his political party is just an assumption. It could be wrong, since some people have more loyalty to their political party than their ideology (it's fun to be part of the team).

Still, a huge change in ideology does indicate an abnormal election where conservatives were much more motivated than moderates, and even liberals to a slight extent.

On the other hand, the CNN numbers demonstrate why Obama won in 2008 - increased Dems coupled with decreased Repubs.
 
  • #111
WhoWee said:
On the other hand, the CNN numbers demonstrate why Obama won in 2008 - increased Dems coupled with decreased Repubs.

Slightly. Independents increased more than Dems. Decreased Republicans with no change in ideology suggests frustration with the party. And the Republican Party is less stable than it used to be, with Tea Partiers being one indication of that.

There's a lot more moderate Democrats than there are moderate Republicans, meaning the policies of both parties are shifted to the right (the country is more conservative than it used to be). That should make Democratic percentages in elections more volatile than Republican percentages. The country may be slowly drifting to the right, but I find it hard to believe ideologies shifted 7% or 5% in just 2 years. What happens in an election where ideology is closer to normal voting patterns?
 
  • #112
BobG said:
Slightly. Independents increased more than Dems. Decreased Republicans with no change in ideology suggests frustration with the party. And the Republican Party is less stable than it used to be, with Tea Partiers being one indication of that.

There's a lot more moderate Democrats than there are moderate Republicans, meaning the policies of both parties are shifted to the right (the country is more conservative than it used to be). That should make Democratic percentages in elections more volatile than Republican percentages. The country may be slowly drifting to the right, but I find it hard to believe ideologies shifted 7% or 5% in just 2 years. What happens in an election where ideology is closer to normal voting patterns?

I'd like to see a similar poll of the 2008 Primary (H Clinton vs B Obama).
 
  • #113
This explains EVERYTHING - it turns out Obama didn't make enough speeches/or perhaps didn't sell the "big picture"? Either way, he's going to change his style as soon as he gets back from his trip to build international trade.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20101105/ap_on_bi_ge/us_obama_election_retrospective

"Obama says in an interview with CBS's "60 Minutes" that he "stopped paying attention" to the leadership style he displayed during his run for the presidency.

Obama also said he recognizes now that "leadership is not just legislation," and that "it's a matter of persuading people. And giving them confidence and bringing them together. And setting a tone. And making an argument that people can understand.""
 
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  • #114
Here's a poll tracking ideology that's independent of elections. In other words, it won't necessarily reflect voting trends: Conservatives Finish 2009 as No. 1 Ideological Group

A 3% shift in ideology is unusual, but not unheard of. When a shift that big occurs, it usually corrects itself in the opposite direction, but not always. So I'm not quite sure what to make in such a huge leap in conservative voters in the 2010 election. Part of it is probably real, but it's certainly not a real 7% shift in ideology towards conservatism.

Interestingly, the report makes a rather glaring error when comparing ideology to party. If you look closer, they erroneously just pasted the numbers from party ideology as a reflection of which party conservatives, moderates, liberals belong to, etc.

The error can be corrected using the overall ideological distribution and the ideology distribution within each party using simultaneous equations to yield: 35% Democrats, 28% Republicans, and 36% Independents.

Which means the real percentages are:

Code:
Ideology   Democrat   Republican   Independent
Cons        18%          50%           32%
Mod         38%          19%           43%
Lib         63%           5%           31%

(Fixing the errors in the report is more interesting than the report, itself.)
 
  • #115
BobG said:
So I'm not quite sure what to make in such a huge leap in conservative voters in the 2010 election. Part of it is probably real, but it's certainly not a real 7% shift in ideology towards conservatism.
I agree with that. Peoples' ideology didn't change significantly. What changed is what many perceived the ideology of each party to be.

The attempt of Democrats to hide, obfuscate, and mislead the public about their (and their opponents') ideology seems to me to be about 7% less effective this year.
 
  • #116
Al68 said:
The attempt of Democrats to hide, obfuscate, and mislead the public about their (and their opponents') ideology seems to me to be about 7% less effective this year.
Or the attempt of Republicans to hide, obfuscate, and mislead the public about their (and their opponents') ideology seems to me to be about 7% more effective.

Or some combination of both.

If you think one of the two parties is made up entirely of honest, clean public servants ... well, I'm pretty sure you don't.
 
  • #117
This election was about jobs and nothing else - not spending, agendas, or policies. People are frightened, they are unusually vulnerable to Republican propaganda, and they lashed out. Were unemployment at 5%, all of the other alleged issues would have been moot.

I hope the Republicans continue to delude themselves. It bodes well for 2012. Note that when Mitch McConnell spoke, he focused on everything but jobs.

Btw, the private sector added 159,000 jobs last month.
 
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  • #118
Al68 said:
I agree with that. Peoples' ideology didn't change significantly. What changed is what many perceived the ideology of each party to be.

The attempt of Democrats to hide, obfuscate, and mislead the public about their (and their opponents') ideology seems to me to be about 7% less effective this year.

If your second paragraph were true, party affiliation would remain steady while people's reported ideology would change. In reality, party affiliation varies all the time.

Code:
Year      Dem   Rep     Ind
2000      33%	31%	36%
2001      38%	32%	31%
2002      39%	32%	28%
2003      23%	26%	52%
2004      21%	27%	52%
2005      31%	33%	36%
2006      33%	29%	36%
2007      34%	27%	39%
2008      34%	26%	38%
2009      35%	28%	36%

I would tend to agree with Ivan's point, since it would seem to be common sense - except those hardest hit by the economy and unemployment were the least likely to vote.

In any event, if the economy improves it's because a)Republicans control the House or b) because a Democrat is in the White House or c) because the economy always goes up and down and it's time for it to go up.
 
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  • #119
BobG said:
except those hardest hit by the economy and unemployment were the least likely to vote.

Exactly, and who put Obama in office?

Why did Reid win? He got out the Latino vote. Who swung heavily for the right - blue-collar workers.

It is all about fear. Interpreting this election is a no-brainer. The economy didn't turn around quickly enough, and you can't sell "what it would have been like had we done nothing", in a political campaign.

Russ made the comment some time ago that Obama will be reelected because, by then, the jobs market will be recovering. True, but only true BECAUSE of the actions of Obama and the Dems. But you'll never sell that one to a person who is looking for a job.
 
Last edited:
  • #120
Ivan Seeking said:
Btw, the private sector added 159,000 jobs last month.
While the number of unemployed and the unemployment rate remained the same, 14.8 million and 9.6%.
 

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