News US Midterm Elections - Predictions and Post-mortems

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The discussion centers on predictions and analyses surrounding the US Midterm Elections. Participants share their forecasts for Senate and House outcomes, with some expecting a Republican gain in the House while Democrats might retain the Senate. There is a notable focus on voter turnout, with many expressing concern over low engagement and the influence of organized groups like the Tea Party. Candidates such as Bob Inglis and Rick Snyder are highlighted as preferred choices among some voters. Overall, the sentiment reflects a mix of anticipation and disappointment regarding the election results and their implications for future political dynamics.
  • #121
BobG said:
[...] or c) because the economy always goes up and down and it's time for it to go up.
Well http://www.nber.org/feldstein/bg120401.html" time for it to go up; I expect people know that and make voting judgements accordingly.

Most recessions don't last very long. The nine recessions since WWII ranged from 6 to 16 months with an average of 11 months.
 
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  • #122
WhoWee said:
This explains EVERYTHING - it turns out Obama didn't make enough speeches/or perhaps didn't sell the "big picture"? Either way, he's going to change his style as soon as he gets back from his trip to build international trade.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20101105/ap_on_bi_ge/us_obama_election_retrospective

The huge wave of Republican support was precisely because his message did get through.
 
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  • #123
mheslep said:
Well http://www.nber.org/feldstein/bg120401.html" time for it to go up; I expect people know that and make voting judgements accordingly.
So what higher power decides when it is time (or well past time) and when it isn't?

And when does an economic recovery ever come too soon?
 
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  • #124
Gokul43201 said:
So what higher power decides when it is time (or well past time) and when it isn't?

And when does an economic recovery ever come too soon?
The point is that if one accepts the economy is to a large extent a deterministic system then some levers will tend to encourage faster and sharper recoveries, others the opposite. Clearly this time around the federal government has tried some unprecedented policies.
 
  • #125
Gokul43201 said:
So what higher power decides when it is time (or well past time) and when it isn't?

Gauss?
 
  • #126
Ivan Seeking said:
This election was about jobs and nothing else - not spending, agendas, or policies. People are frightened, they are unusually vulnerable to Republican propaganda, and they lashed out. Were unemployment at 5%, all of the other alleged issues would have been moot.

I'd say it was a combination of the economy and a rejection of the Obama agenda. The people were supposed to be frightened/irrational/angry when the Republicans took control in 1994 too, but the unemployment rate was significantly lower then.

The party in power tends to take a hit during elections when the economy isn't doing well, but the Democrats really got their butts handed to them this time around. That isn't solely due to the economy. Also, note that the Democrats didn't run on things like healthcare.

If your argument was true, then one could easily say it was fear that got Obama elected in the first place. In late 2008, the economy seemed on the verge of collapse, people were fearful, and voted in Obama (by that type of reasoning).

Exactly, and who put Obama in office?

Why did Reid win? He got out the Latino vote. Who swung heavily for the right - blue-collar workers.

Sharron Angle also helped in this sense I think with her anti-illegal immigrant ads, which I think caused the Latinos to swing more heavily for Reid.

Russ made the comment some time ago that Obama will be reelected because, by then, the jobs market will be recovering. True, but only true BECAUSE of the actions of Obama and the Dems. But you'll never sell that one to a person who is looking for a job.

What actions of Obama and the Dems are you referring to that will theoretically cause the economy to turn around by 2012? I would say it will turn around (hopefully) in spite of their actions.

Since taking office, the Democrats embarked on a massive so-called stimulus program from which we have pretty much seen nothing. One of the main selling points for the stimulus was that America has a very aging infrastructure, so now would be a good time to embark on doing a lot of infrastructure projects. But where are they?

While many can criticize for example Japan's attempts at stimulus for not stimulating their economy, nonetheless, Japan did get a lot of infrastructure out of it, some might even say too much, in the form of roads and bridges to nowhere.

If the economy was still bad but we were seeing some real investments made in improving America's infrastructure in all sorts of ways, one could at least reason, "Well it doesn't seem to be stimulating very much, but at least we are getting lots of nice new infrastructure out of it."

But we haven't seen that. The Democrats say that the stimulus saved us from a repeat of the Great Depression, but I find this questionable because of Obama's own statement, when he said that he didn't realize at the time that there is no such thing as a shovel-ready project. If that is the case, then how did the stimulus save the economy? The money wasn't able to flood it quickly as was needed.

Then Obama spent over a year pushing for healthcare reform, which created a lot of uncertainty in the economy. One problem isn't that corporations lack cash, it's that they are sitting on it and not investing. No one knew if things like carbon cap-and-trade, or union card check were going to pass either, creating more uncertainty. Also the Bush tax cuts being set to increase.

Now that the House has gone to the Republicans, much of the uncertainty is over, and hopefully we will see corporations start investing putting their money into the economy, and hopefully the unemployment rate will start declining.

I would say the Democrats did a lot of things to hamper an economic recovery simply by the agenda Obama wanted passed (healthcare, cap-and-trade, union card check, financial system reform, Bush tax cuts expire), and the one thing they did to specifically help the economy recover, the stimulus, was executed in a very poor manner.
 
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  • #127
Gokul43201 said:
So what higher power decides when it is time (or well past time) and when it isn't?

And when does an economic recovery ever come too soon?

The way I read it was mheslep was saying that historically, in terms of the lengths of recessions, this recession is past due for the time it was expected to recover.

Although, technically, isn't the recession over now, it's just the economy has high unemployment?

Unemployment and growth can be inversed, for example Japan's economy has very little growth, but full employment, the American economy right now is experiencing growth, but high unemployment.
 
  • #128
CAC1001 said:
Although, technically, isn't the recession over now, it's just the economy has high unemployment?
Yes it is technically over, with an anemic recovery compared to past recessions.
 
  • #129
Al68 said:
I agree with that. Peoples' ideology didn't change significantly. What changed is what many perceived the ideology of each party to be.

The attempt of Democrats to hide, obfuscate, and mislead the public about their (and their opponents') ideology seems to me to be about 7% less effective this year.

BobG said:
If your second paragraph were true, party affiliation would remain steady while people's reported ideology would change.
Huh? I think you misunderstood my post. The opposite would be true. People would switch parties while not switching their own ideology. People pick the party that matches their ideology, they don't generally change their own ideology to match their previously chosen party.
 
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  • #130
Gokul43201 said:
Or the attempt of Republicans to hide, obfuscate, and mislead the public about their (and their opponents') ideology seems to me to be about 7% more effective.

Or some combination of both.

If you think one of the two parties is made up entirely of honest, clean public servants ... well, I'm pretty sure you don't.
LOL, you're right, I don't believe that. Of course both parties try such nonsense, but the Democratic Party is far more prolific and successful historically.

How many Dem voters believe that the two economic "ideologies" consist of:

a) Those "on the side" of poor and middle class.
b) Those "on the side" of the rich.

Obviously, those two "sides" differ in motives, not ideology, while implicitly assuming a common ideology.

But how successful has the Democratic Party been historically of convincing people that there is no significant disagreement about ideology or political philosophy, only a difference in motives instead?

What percentage of Democratic voters base their decision on that classic ad hominem logical fallacy?

My estimate is that it represents the overwhelming majority of their constituency.

Of course some Republicans have tried to convince people that Democrats favor certain policies because they "want to destroy small businesses", etc, but such attempts aren't near as prolific, aren't the core of their message, and they are certainly not near as historically successful as Democrats are at such propaganda.
 
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  • #131
That's two falsehoods in a sea of hundreds. Hardly a representative sample.

(nor is this ...)

How many conservatives believe Obama ... is a Muslim, ... is the antichrist, ... is a Nazi style eugenist, ... has recreated a version of the Hitler youth, ... wants to implement Sharia Law in the US, ... plans to resettle hundreds of thousands of Palestinians in the US, ... is already snaking foreign Muslims into the US, ... plans to reinstate the fairness doctrine, ... is diverting 10% of the US Navy for a personal trip, ... plans to take away our guns, ... is anti-America, ... wants government to take over private industry, ... wants to end all drilling in the Gulf, ... ? (and that's only the crazy stuff)

You don't think falsehoods spread by Republicans have had a significant role in this election?
 
  • #132
Gokul43201 said:
That's two falsehood in a sea of hundreds. Hardly a representative sample.

(nor is this ...)

How many conservatives believe Obama ... is a Muslim, ... is the antichrist, ... is a Nazi style eugenist, ... has recreated a version of the Hitler youth, ... wants to implement Sharia Law in the US, ... plans to resettle hundreds of thousands of Palestinians in the US, ... is already snaking foreign Muslims into the US, ... plans to reinstate the fairness doctrine, ... is diverting 10% of the US Navy for a personal trip, ... plans to take away our guns, ... is anti-America, ... wants government to take over private industry, ... wants to end all drilling in the Gulf, ... ? (and that's only the crazy stuff)

You don't think falsehoods spread by Republicans have had a significant role in this election?
Significant, maybe. But the effect of all of your examples combined represent a small fraction of the people who voted for Dems because of the single example I gave. It may be a "single falsehood in a sea of hundreds" (or more), but it's a phenomenally successful one.

Like I said, they both do it, Dems are just far more successful.

But at least one of your examples isn't crazy: "wants to take over private industry" is factually true to a large degree in the industry most referred to, health insurance. You shouldn't lump that one in with the crazy stuff. :smile:
 
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  • #133
To clarify, I meant "all industry".

Small fraction you think. I don't think so. Jones, Limbaugh, Hannity, Beck, etc have millions (tens of millions?) of dedicated listeners. I don't think they're in it for the reasonable talk.

(and I was only trying to list some of the extreme craziness)
 
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  • #134
Gokul43201 said:
Small fraction you think. I don't think so.
Well, I'm too lazy to look for them now, but I seem to recall some polls regarding many of the things you listed, and while perhaps too many people believed them, it was a relatively small percentage, if I recall correctly. Maybe I'll do a quick search online.
 
  • #135
Don't bother (unless you want to). I don't think I'd like to then follow that up with a set of less crazy claims to see if we can estimate corresponding numbers. (Started looking for numbers myself - and found one, from an iffy source - but realized it would take forever to hunt down numbers on more of those things, and that numbers don't likely exist for most)
 
  • #136
Gokul43201 said:
... plans to reinstate the fairness doctrine,

He did support it originally if I remember right, but made no push for it as President.

... plans to take away our guns,

Well he doesn't have a record of being exactly pro-2nd Amendment though. But again, this isn't something he has pushed for as President.
 
  • #137
CAC1001 said:
He did support it originally if I remember right, but made no push for it as President.
Nope. Not before [1]. Not after [2]. But it's not surprising that you believe he supported it.

1. http://www.broadcastingcable.com/ar...s_Not_Support_Return_of_Fairness_Doctrine.php
B&C said:
There may be some Democrats talking about reimposing the Fairness Doctrine, but one very important one does not: presumptive presidential nominee Barack Obama.

The Illinois senator’s top aide said the issue continues to be used as a distraction from more pressing media business.

"Sen. Obama does not support reimposing the Fairness Doctrine on broadcasters," press secretary Michael Ortiz said in an e-mail to B&C late Wednesday.

2. http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2009/02/18/white-house-obama-opposes-fairness-doctrine-revival/
Fox said:
President Obama opposes any move to bring back the so-called Fairness Doctrine, a spokesman told FOXNews.com Wednesday.
 
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  • #138
Gokul43201 said:
Don't bother (unless you want to). I don't think I'd like to then follow that up with a set of less crazy claims to see if we can estimate corresponding numbers. (Started looking for numbers myself - and found one, from an iffy source - but realized it would take forever to hunt down numbers on more of those things, and that numbers don't likely exist for most)
I think you're right, it would be too difficult. I couldn't even quickly find any data about what percentage of Democratic voters believe the example I gave, so we would have nothing to compare it to, anyway.
 
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  • #139
Gokul43201 said:
Nope. Not before [1]. Not after [2]. But it's not surprising that you believe he supported it.
Yeah, I think that should be moved from the "crazy belief" column to the "just incorrect" column, given that many Democrats do support it.
 
  • #140
Okay, moved.
 
  • #141
Gokul43201 said:
(snip) But it's not surprising that you believe he supported it (snip)

And that's just what I find so shocking! It seems there are many people want so, so badly to believe every wacko thing they hear about Obama. The other thread on bogus claims shows this too (the cost of the India trip, e.g.).

Critical thinking: OFF.
 
  • #142
Gokul43201 said:
Okay, moved.
LOL, it looks like someone just moved it back:
lisab said:
And that's just what I find so shocking! It seems there are many people want so, so badly to believe every wacko thing they hear about Obama.
It's "shocking" and "wacko" that Obama might agree with many Democrats on the "fairness doctrine"? Incorrect, yes, but not wacko like the other stuff Gokul43201 mentioned.
 
  • #143
Gokul43201 said:
That's two falsehoods in a sea of hundreds. Hardly a representative sample.

(nor is this ...)

How many conservatives believe Obama ... is a Muslim, ... is the antichrist, ... is a Nazi style eugenist, ... has recreated a version of the Hitler youth, ... wants to implement Sharia Law in the US, ... plans to resettle hundreds of thousands of Palestinians in the US, ... is already snaking foreign Muslims into the US, ... plans to reinstate the fairness doctrine, ... is diverting 10% of the US Navy for a personal trip, ... plans to take away our guns, ... is anti-America, ... wants government to take over private industry, ... wants to end all drilling in the Gulf, ... ? (and that's only the crazy stuff)

You don't think falsehoods spread by Republicans have had a significant role in this election?
You forgot the one about the CRA (Community Reinvestment Act) being responsible for the sub-prime mortgage crisis, or that Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae (or the government) forced banks to issue bad mortgages, which I recently read from someone who fancies himself as a mainstream republican/conservative.
 
  • #144
To clarify, I don't personally hold the opinion that CAC wants to believe untrue things. My statement was expressing a lack of surprise over the knowledge that he would have heard/read this falsehood from one or more sources that I imagine were keen on propagating it.
 
  • #145
Astronuc said:
You forgot the one about the CRA (Community Reinvestment Act) being responsible for the sub-prime mortgage crisis, or that Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae (or the government) forced banks to issue bad mortgages, which I recently read from someone who fancies himself as a mainstream republican/conservative.
Can of worms. Can we leave it shut?
 
  • #146
Gokul43201 said:
To clarify, I don't personally hold the opinion that CAC wants to believe untrue things. My statement was expressing a lack of surprise over the knowledge that he would have heard/read this falsehood from one or more sources that I imagine were keen on propagating it.

I don't think CAC1001 is in that group either. In fact I find most of the righties on PF to be clear thinking and principled, even if I hold different views on many issues.
 
  • #147
Astronuc said:
You forgot the one about the CRA (Community Reinvestment Act) being responsible for the sub-prime mortgage crisis, or that Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae (or the government) forced banks to issue bad mortgages, which I recently read from someone who fancies himself as a mainstream republican/conservative.
Forced or bribed? The fact that private banks issued the bad mortgages to sell to Fannie and Freddie voluntarily (persuaded by extra profit from Fannie and Freddie) instead of being forced does not mean that Fannie and Freddie aren't to blame.

It's not like the mortgage problem was caused by mortgages that met private mortgage underwriting standards. The problem was caused by mortgages that met politically motivated, government promulgated standards.

And if we hide our heads in the sand and pretend that government didn't cause the problem, it will happen again. Maybe worse next time.
Gokul43201 said:
Can of worms. Can we leave it shut?
Oops, too late. But it does belong in another thread.

And it has been discussed extensively in other threads already, but each thread seems to fizzle out when denial of the government's obvious responsibility for the mortgage fiasco is no longer tenable. Then it sprouts back up for another cycle. Amazing how that works.
 
  • #148
Al68 said:
It's not like the mortgage problem was caused by mortgages that met private mortgage underwriting standards. The problem was caused by mortgages that met politically motivated, government promulgated standards.
Um no - that's misinformation.

Subprime mortgages were generated by mortgage brokers (e.g., Countrywide), in some cases which were owned by the big commercial banks or investment banks, and were not covered by CRA.

Fannie and Freddie bought mortgage back securities, which were put together by investment banks - Bear Stearns, Lehman, Morgan Stanley, . . . . Fannie and Freddie were late comers to the sub-prime market and MBSs, and they were not required to do so by the government, they were just competing with Wall Street for a lucrative market.

The government did fail regulate the financial markets.

Interestingly, I heard a comment last night that the rating agencies cannot be sued for their false ratings, because they are expressing 'an opinion', which seems to imply there is no underlying collection of information or analysis.

But yes - the details of the collapse of the housing and mortgage markets are subjects for another thread.

However, the point I was making was the misinformation (fantasy fiction) being passed along to and among voters.
 
  • #149
mheslep said:
The point is that if one accepts the economy is to a large extent a deterministic system
It is an insanely complex system with several strongly interacting subsystems. For all practical purposes it isn't terribly deterministic.

then some levers will tend to encourage faster and sharper recoveries, others the opposite.
Yet, if you poll the academic community on which levers to pull, you get answers ranging from "none" to "over $2T in direct Govt spending" to "$1T in tax relief", through virtually every combination thereof.

Clearly this time around the federal government has tried some unprecedented policies.
And I don't think it's unreasonable that the government try unprecedented policies, when the nature and scope of the problem is similarly unprecedented. Moreover, I don't see the direct connection between that and the question here.

In short, the research community will likely tell you that it's really, really difficult to predict how long a recession can be expected to last in the absence/presence of different government interventions. Yet, you think it is reasonable that the average person making up the voting electorate be able to determine these numbers from his/her gut?

CAC1001 said:
The way I read it was mheslep was saying that historically, in terms of the lengths of recessions, this recession is past due for the time it was expected to recover.
You know, as well as (mheslep or) I do, that using a historical average to determine when a recession ought to turn around is essentially useless. Might as well vent your anger at the government for any long stretches of bad weather.
 
  • #150
Interesting perspective on how Democrats succeeded/failed during their two year control of government:

Pelosi's Triumph

William Saletan said:
The big picture isn't about winning or keeping power. It's about using it. I've made this argument before, but David Frum, the former speechwriter to President Bush, has made it better. In March, when Democrats secured enough votes to pass the bill, he castigated fellow conservatives who looked forward to punishing Pelosi and President Obama "with a big win in the November 2010 elections." Frum observed:

"Legislative majorities come and go. This healthcare bill is forever. A win in November is very poor compensation for this debacle now. … No illusions please: This bill will not be repealed. Even if Republicans scored a 1994 style landslide in November, how many votes could we muster to re-open the "doughnut hole" and charge seniors more for prescription drugs? How many votes to re-allow insurers to rescind policies when they discover a pre-existing condition? How many votes to banish 25 year olds from their parents' insurance coverage?"

Even during the victory celebration, Republican leaders are hedging on what they can accomplish. Will they toss out their chances in 2012 for a battle they can't win (a Dem Senate & President will make many efforts futile)

What Would Pelosi Do? What Tea Party activists are expecting from the Republican Congress

Now, all Hecker wants is for Republicans to live up to the contract. Doing so, he says, will require them to be like President Obama and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi—and make decisions that aren't popular. "Pelosi, especially, was very bold," Hecker says. "She knew health care reform wasn't popular after a certain point, but she kept pushing it because she believed in it. That's what we need from our guys—they have to de-fund health care. They have to take it on the chin and repeal the popular parts of it, too."
 
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