US Presidential Primaries, 2008

[G01]

I'm in favor of making landline usage in vehicles illegal too.

It is dangerous! How can someone drive with their car having a long telephone line hanging off of it?!

 

[Art]

It is dangerous! How can someone drive with their car having a long telephone line hanging off of it?!

That's silly you don't use a long phone line you use a pantograph

 

[Gokul43201]

To revive the sporting spirit in this thread, who wants to call the margin in PA?

Get your prediction in by 7PM ET.

I'm calling Clinton by 5%.

 

[turbo]

I'm calling Clinton by 9% of the popular vote, but an even split of delegates or a slight Obama win in delegates. He's got some strong support in delegate-rich districts of the southeast (Philly and the 'burbs).

 

[Jimmy Snyder]

To revive the sporting spirit in this thread, who wants to call the margin in PA?

Get your prediction in by 7PM ET.

I'm calling Clinton by 5%.

Clinton by 6%. Superdelegates will go over to Obama in a big way and Clinton will drop out before the Indiana primary, May 6.

 

[lisab]

Hmmmm...Clinton by just 2%, and she'll be up one delegate.

Since (as numerous pundits have said) she's running not against Obama but against "Expected," it will be seen as a huge loss. Superdelegates will swarm to Obama; she'll be out in two weeks.

Her bitterness about the race will drive her to guns and religion.

 

[Jimmy Snyder]

Her bitterness about the race will drive her to guns and religion.

Good one.

 

[turbo]

Her bitterness about the race will drive her to guns and religion.

Oh, no! lisab played the "race" card!

 

[lisab]

Oh, no! lisab played the "race" card!

HA! I didn't even notice that...

 

[Astronuc]

I'll go with Obama by at least 1% in Pa - because I just have to be contrarian.

 

[turbo]

According to exit polls, Clinton leads Obama by 4% in PA, though some other sources claim that black voters tend to vote late in the day and could close the gap a bit.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/04/22/pennsylvania-exit-polls-p_n_98069.html

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Hillary by 5% and a slight edge in delegates.

 

[G01]

Obama by 3% (I have to beat Astronuc! This is like the Price is Right, closest without going over!)

Either way it turns out, I think Obama, if nothing else, will keep it really close, and bring in the superdelegates.

EDIT:

According to MSNBC, PA is too close to call. The two candidates have a striking tie of 0 votes to 0 votes!

I have lost some faith in the media after that report! As long as they don't cut away from primary reporting for a Britney Spear's story...

 

[Gokul43201]

Final^* score: Clinton by 9.43%

Turbo wins the PA game.

^* 98% of precincts reporting.

PS: Obama lost Pittsburgh!

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Pittsburgh has a large population of bowlers.

 

[Art]

Fox news mentioned about 10% of the voters were 'switchers', Republicans who crossed over to vote for Clinton in the Democratic primary. It would seem, as happened in Ohio, it is their votes which is keeping the vampire alive. Looks like Rush Limbaugh's plan to use election fraud to extend the Democrats' nomination race to the point of mutual destruction is working.

 

[TVP45]

Fox news mentioned about 10% of the voters were 'switchers', Republicans who crossed over to vote for Clinton in the Democratic primary. It would seem, as happened in Ohio, it is their votes which is keeping the vampire alive. Looks like Rush Limbaugh's plan to use election fraud to extend the Democrats' nomination race to the point of mutual destruction is working.

On local talk radio here is Pittsburgh, there have been many callers who have said they would vote for Clinton in the primary and McCain in the general. They were not at all shy in admitting what they were doing.

 

[russ_watters]

Fox news mentioned about 10% of the voters were 'switchers', Republicans who crossed over to vote for Clinton in the Democratic primary. It would seem, as happened in Ohio, it is their votes which is keeping the vampire alive. Looks like Rush Limbaugh's plan to use election fraud to extend the Democrats' nomination race to the point of mutual destruction is working.

Fraud? Explain.

 

[Art]

Fraud? Explain.

fraud (frôd)
n.
1. A deception deliberately practiced in order to secure unfair or unlawful gain.
2. A piece of trickery; a trick.
3.
a. One that defrauds; a cheat.
b. One who assumes a false pose; an impostor.

 

[Astronuc]

Fox news mentioned about 10% of the voters were 'switchers', Republicans who crossed over to vote for Clinton in the Democratic primary.

I thought the Democratic primary was closed in PA, no?

In any event, Hillary should switch to the Republican party where she belongs.

 

[Art]

I thought the Democratic primary was closed in PA, no?

In any event, Hillary should switch to the Republican party where she belongs.

Thousands of Pennsylvania voters are switching parties before the April primary, state and county election records show.

Most of the switchers are going to the Democrats, 51 percent statewide, compared to 29 percent for the Republicans, based on nearly 15,000 voters who changed in January.

http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2008/02/15000_voters_in_state_switch_p.html

PARTY-SWITCHERS

One in 10 voters changed their party registration since the start of the year so they could vote in the hotly contested primary, which was open only to registered Democrats. About half of the party-switchers had been registered Republicans and the rest had been unaffiliated with either party. Another roughly 3 percent were voting for the first time in Pennsylvania.

http://electioninspection.wordpress.com/2008/04/22/pennsylvania-exit-poll/

I think Clinton has switched to the Republican side, she just hasn't told anybody yet

 

[Jimmy Snyder]

I thought the Democratic primary was closed in PA, no?

You had to be registered as a Democrat to vote in the Democratic primary. However, many Republicans switched the party affiliation on their registrations for this. The deadline for doing so was 30 days before the primary. Although there surely are many sandbaggers, I think most of these people intend to vote Democrat in the general election.

 

[Gokul43201]

Fraud? Explain.

In Ohio, specifically, it does amount to legal fraud, but is virtually impossible to prove.

http://www.dispatch.com/live/content/local_news/stories/2008/03/28/JAIL_RUSH.ART_ART_03-28-08_A8_HV9P3PM.html?type=rss&cat=&sid=101

Some critics have complained that Limbaugh is improperly encouraging voters to break the law.

In Ohio, party-switchers are supposed to sign a form attesting, under penalty of election falsification -- a felony -- that they support the principles of the party whose ballot they are obtaining.

But Jennings said it would be difficult to prosecute anyone because they also have constitutionally protected freedom of speech and it's hard to prove voter intent.

 

[Astronuc]

You had to be registered as a Democrat to vote in the Democratic primary. However, many Republicans switched the party affiliation on their registrations for this. The deadline for doing so was 30 days before the primary. Although there surely are many sandbaggers, I think most of these people intend to vote Democrat in the general election.

Ah, of course.


Meanwhile - Campaign politics and the food crisis
http://marketplace.publicradio.org/display/web/2008/04/23/wilkinson_food_crisis/

Do Iowa's first-in-the-nation caucuses cause food riots in Mozambique?

In recent months, demonstrations and riots have broken out all over the less-developed world in protest of the rising cost of the grains that make up the daily bread of so many. The recent run-up in prices is hitting the world's poor especially hard. But this mess is largely the aftermath of a perfect storm of American special-interest politics.

The supply of corn is at an all-time high, but those gains in production aren't going into peoples' bellies; they're going into American gas tanks. According to a new World Bank report, almost the entire increase in the global production in corn over the last three years went into biofuel production here in the U.S. Meanwhile, many farmers worldwide have switched their crops to corn to profit from surging biofuel-driven demand. This has pushed up the price of other grains, like wheat.

Back in 2003, John McCain noted that ethanol is a creation of government subsidies and "does nothing to reduce fuel consumption, nothing to increase our energy independence, nothing to improve air quality." And he was right. But in a speech in Iowa last August, a not-so-maverick McCain fell into line and touted the virtues of ethanol. Hillary Clinton flip-flopped, too.

The real problem is the nature of electoral politics, which encourages politicians to meddle in markets and pick winners as they cruise the campaign trail. This makes worries over global warming or energy independence more likely to result in a bonanza of special interest subsidies than in any real improvement.

Will Wilkinson is a research fellow at the Cato Institute.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

In Ohio, specifically, it does amount to legal fraud, but is virtually impossible to prove.

And many people don't even see anything unethical about it! No wonder we get people like Bush. We can't expect to get politicians who are any more ethical than the people who elect them.

 

[chemisttree]

It's also not unethical to campaign for someone you have no intention of voting for, right Ivan?

 

[chemisttree]

fraud (frôd)
n.
1. A deception deliberately practiced in order to secure unfair or unlawful gain.
2. A piece of trickery; a trick.
3.
a. One that defrauds; a cheat.
b. One who assumes a false pose; an impostor.

I think that eliminates all three of our candidates...

 

[Jimmy Snyder]

And many people don't even see anything unethical about it! No wonder we get people like Bush. We can't expect to get politicians who are any more ethical than the people who elect them.

That's an interesting viewpoint. Elected leaders can't be any better than the electorate. And the electorate can't be any better than its worst members. Well, at least it's not elitist, is it? Don't you think it is alienating though? I guess not. After all, the image of liars and hypocrites giving their money and their votes to candidates who are no better than they are is apt.

 

[Jimmy Snyder]

Only half of each Democrat's supporters said they would be satisfied if the other Democrat won the nomination, according to interviews with voters as they left polling stations.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24271377"

I expect that Obama will go into the convention with a plurality of delegates. If he does, and if he gets the nomination, then he will have a tough job of uniting the party. But he has time and McCain on his side in the project. But if he has the plurality, and the superdelegates give the nomination to Clinton, then Clinton will have no chance. McCain won the primary last night.

 

[turbo]

I expect that Obama will go into the convention with a plurality of delegates. If he does, and if he gets the nomination, then he will have a tough job of uniting the party. But he has time and McCain on his side in the project. But if he has the plurality, and the superdelegates give the nomination to Clinton, then Clinton will have no chance. McCain won the primary last night.

Very true. Clinton and her surrogates are trying to change the party's election rules by claiming that she is winning the popular vote. There is a lot of tortured "logic" being tossed around to support the contention that she "deserves" the nomination. Apparently the votes of rank-and-file primary voters and caucus goers are worthless if they voted for the "wrong" candidate and should be set aside by party hacks.