PAllen said:
But their argument is that the collapse can't stop there, so what does that show?
Nothing. Remember, the trans-Planckian argument is that the derivation is not reliable, because it presumes that deep inside the domain where we need quantum gravity we have applied a semiclassical approximation. But we have nothing beyond the semiclassical consideration, so we cannot improve the derivation.
PAllen said:
Also, there are several derivations, by Unruh and others, that removing the trans-Planckian domain has essentially no effect on the prediction and properties of Hawking radiation:
https://journals.aps.org/prd/abstract/10.1103/PhysRevD.52.4559
not paywall version:
https://arxiv.org/abs/hep-th/9506121
In general, you cannot avoid the trans-Planckian problem without using a theory which is different from the actual theory in that trans-Planckian domain. "Removing" the trans-Planckian domain is simply a particular way to do this.
By the way, this particular way depends on killing a key assumption of GR, local Lorentz covariance. Cutting high frequencies cannot be done in a Lorentz-covariant way. So, locally you need a preferred frame. (General covariance may be preserved following, say, Jacobson's Einstein aether.) Brout et al admit this:
Any truncation scheme can be formulated in intrinsic geometric terms. However, it is convenient to work in a coordinate system that is privileged in the geometry of the incipient black hole. We make the assumption that the truncation takes a simple form in such a privileged system.
And this is the problem with many such derivations of Hawking radiation: They have to exclude those coordinates where the observer is stationary. Here is how Padmanabhan justifies this:
It is important to note that all questions about event horizon formation must be asked in a reference frame where this formation occurs in a finite time in the unperturbed collapse. It is not possible to theoretically settle this issue if one insists on working entirely in the coordinates used by static observers at large distances, even though these may be the most natural coordinates to use, simply because even in the classical scenario, event horizon formation takes an infinite amount of time in these coordinates.
The justification makes not much sense. If the consideration based on the region covered by the Schwarzschild time coordinate is sufficient to show that the collapse will not happen, but that the not-yet-BH radiates away before becoming a BH, then either the whole theory already depends on coordinates (which is what I suspect) or the other coordinates cannot show anything different anyway, thus, one can use Schwarzschild time as well.
In general, one should note that Hawking-like radiation will appear whenever there is a change of the gravitational field. To create the impression that it will appear almost certainly is therefore quite easy. All you have to do is to exclude, for whatever reason, the stationary case or to leave it to future research.