What are the odds?

[Ivan Seeking]

How improbable does an event have to be before we can say it didn't happen by chance?​

https://philosophy.stackexchange.co...to-be-before-we-can-say-it-didnt-happen-by-ch

 

[Averagesupernova]

I had a tough time convincing my (scientist) brother than you are as likely to win the lottery on the numbers 1 2 3,4,5 6,7 as any other set of seven numbers.

I've found this to be the case also. It seems that people are accepting of 7 digits worth of odds but if you pick a patterned series of numbers they think it decreases the chances farther.
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The question at this point becomes: Many many different patterns are significant to someone somewhere even though though they might not mean anything to they person picking numbers. So then what happens to the odds? Different from one person to the next? The intelligent ones will see the light.
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I had a computer teacher in high school that I didn't think was very bright. I wrote code for a random number generator that generated numbers within a range that would fill the 2000 squares on the monitor. The screen started to fill in and I asked other students if they had a pick for the last one to fill in. The teacher picked the very bottom right square. As if to say that was the fastest square. Wasn't going to get caught very easily by the random number generator. In hindsight I should have taken bets. Not pick a square. Just bet they all won't.

 

[DaveC426913]

The question at this point becomes: Many many different patterns are significant to someone somewhere even though though they might not mean anything to they person picking numbers. So then what happens to the odds? Different from one person to the next? The intelligent ones will see the light.

Me playing Devil's

: I suspect my brother would see right through the "special numbers" fallacy. He would (rightly) recognize that other people having special numbers would have no effect on the probabilities. Yet he would still trip over the non-specialness of 1234567. It's an easy fallacy to make if you're not overly familiar with probabilities.

(OK, in his defense, he is a microbiology tech - perhaps as far from math as you can get in science.)

 

[Averagesupernova]

Yet he would still trip over the non-specialness of 1234567. It's an easy fallacy to make if you're not overly familiar with probabilities.

It is more unlikely to draw those numbers out in that particular order than it is to draw 7 numbers out where to order does not matter. I think that's where people get caught up. If I draw 7 numbers out of a bucket of 100 and claim I will pull 1 through 7 out in that order that is way less likely to pull off than saying I will pull them or any other out in any order. I can hope to pull out 1-7 in order or 35-41 in order and the chances are the same. I can claim to do it 41, 36, 39, 40, 37, 38, 35 and those chances are no different either. The mixed up order is not recognizable. It's perceived as less special.

 

[DaveC426913]

It is more unlikely to draw those numbers out in that particular order than it is to draw 7 numbers out where to order does not matter. I think that's where people get caught up.

True. Although lotteries generally do not work that way - as least any I'm aware of.
Order of draw and order of pick is is irrelevant. Both are arranged in ascending order after-the-fact.

 

[Averagesupernova]

True. Although lotteries generally do not work that way - as least any I'm aware of.
Order of draw and order of pick is is irrelevant. Both are arranged in ascending order after-the-fact.

I don't play so I don't know. What I assume in how they work is likely at least partially incorrect.

 

[gmax137]

In the PowerBall lottery, you Select five numbers between 1 and 69 for the white balls, then select one number between 1 and 26 for the red Powerball. The order of the five white numbers does not matter.