Will Solar Power Outshine Oil in the Near Future?

AI Thread Summary
The discussion centers on the potential for solar power to surpass oil as a primary energy source. Participants agree that solar is renewable while oil is not, but the timeline for this transition remains uncertain. Skepticism is expressed regarding new technologies, such as spray-on solar coatings for glass, with questions about their efficiency and practicality in real-world applications like skyscrapers.Key points include the current limitations of solar technology, including the efficiency of solar panels, which produce about 8-10 watts per square foot under optimal conditions. The average U.S. home requires significant solar panel coverage—approximately 670 square feet—to meet daily energy needs. Storage solutions, particularly batteries, are highlighted as crucial for managing energy supply, especially during periods without sunlight. The discussion notes the high costs and logistical challenges associated with battery storage, including the need for extensive infrastructure to support solar energy generation and storage.
  • #551
Physics_Kid said:
oil will be consumed at crazy rates until it dies no matter how much you advocate conservation.
Oil consumption in Germany is falling
Oil consumption in France is falling
Oil consumption in Italy is falling rapidly
Oil consumption in Spain is falling
Oil consumption in Portugal is falling
Oil consumption in the UK is falling slightly
Oil consumption in Denmark is falling
Oil consumption in the Netherlands has leveled off
The overall European oil consumption starts to fall
North American consumption has stabilized
Many countries reduce their oil consumption now already. The worldwide consumption still goes up, sure, but the increase is slowing down as well.
Physics_Kid said:
from what i can see, no matter how you transition, there will be a decline in energy use, no way around that.
Unless we find suitable alternatives first. That's the point of solar, nuclear, wind and so on.
Physics_Kid said:
my bet is on harvesting hydrogen and it will be the staple source of energy to be consumed by humans when oil begins to dwindle.
There is no hydrogen to harvest, stop repeating this nonsense please.
You can produce it, but then you get a very inefficient resource that you cannot store in large quantities either. Storing hydrogen is expensive. For cars with a storage of a few days that might work, but if you try to propose "produce hydrogen now, use it in 30 years": that doesn't work.
Physics_Kid said:
batt cars will waiver in favor of H cars, its already happening
Where? The number of electric cars increases by ~70%/year, in 2016 (January probably) we had 1.3 million. Here is a graph.
Meanwhile, predictions estimate a total of ~350,000 hydrogen vehicles produced from now to 2027. Even today, every year more new electric cars enter the streets than hydrogen cars will be produced in the next 10 years. In 2018, Tesla alone estimates to produce more electric cars every year than the worldwide production of hydrogen cars in the next 10 years.

Seriously: Please stop make factually wrong claims. It is annoying, and it is against the forum rules.
 
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  • #552
perhaps i am confused.
solar is an energy source, H is not?? coal is a energy source, H is not?? makes no sense.
they are all just carriers of energy. coal does nothing by itself, solar does nothing by itself, nothing does anything by itself ? some process has to convert that energy into usable energy. or, one must build a process that does work of whatever the input is (electric from batts, H, goop, whatever).

how efficient solar vs H doesn't really matter, you need to find something that we can consume, and water is a source and it has H for us to extract (aka harvest), ...

whats so hard about the word "harvest", its the same as "organ harvesting", as in "to go in and extract". to harvest H means to go into the water and get H out.

...and there's lots of it. how you get it is the same problem like how to get electric from solar, or how to get gas from fracking, or how do you make a motor drive a wheel using electric w/o any cords. you still need a intermediate process to be able to use any energy. for electric cars its a battery, for say home heating and cars H can be used.

so now its Musk vs Toyota and others. if H is so dead then why does Toyota make a Mirai that can be recharged in 5min and go ~315mi on one tank? that's very comparable to Tesla Model3. the Mirai will go longer distance, but if you needed to say drive 400mi the Mirai will be there much much sooner than the Model3 ! Mirai and Model3 both carry relatively dangerous materials, Lithium vs H, but Lithium eventually becomes an environmental nightmare, H does not. Mirai base vs Model3 base is way more $$, but H types are just coming into maturity.

none of the Tesla/Musk hype seems to show A-Z for each process. follow every step, including mining lithium and making batts. the starting line is sun rays and water, the finish line is two cars crossing that 300mi stripe. all of the in-between needs energy just to make the vehicle go.

where is "get lithium" and "make battery" in this chart ?

Hydrogen-vs-EV-redlight.jpg


just because you may have access to a form of energy that is plentiful that doesn't mean its very useful if you have to wait 8hrs after every 10min of use (exaggeration to make a point).

so let me ask, Toyota and others are building H cars because why? for the fun of it? if batt based vehicles are the future then i simply don't understand why anyone would be building H cars.

and yes, i see a ton of article bashing H, here's one

“Producing the hydrogen to power FCVs can generate GHGs, depending on the production method, but much less than that emitted by conventional gasoline and diesel vehicles.”

yet nothing about the pollution a lithium harvesting and batt making process does ?

is lithium a viable source of material to carry charge??

here, do the math.

Telsa 85 kWh battery pack weighs 1,200 lb
3.6V nominal 2 Ah 18650 cell = 7.2 Wh =~ 0.6 gram of Lithium
~46g per 18650 package
According to USGS, Bolivia's Uyuni Desert has 5.4 million tonnes of lithium. In the United States, lithium is recovered from brine pools in Nevada. However, half the world's known reserves are located in Bolivia along the central eastern slope of the Andes.

The US publisher Ward's, estimates that as of 2010 there were 1.015 billion motor vehicles in use in the world.

is that enough lithium?.
1.015billion x ~16.744lbs = ?
you'll need way more than 16lbs(lithium):1200lb batt to power UPS and FredX trucks

take trip issue with lithium.

4k mi trip, H and Tesla can go 400mi per tank. H takes 5min to fill, lithium take 8hrs. same speed.
4k/400 = 10 tanks
10*8hrs = 3.333 days !
10*5min = less than 1hr

so to make the trip you must have ~3.5 days of downtime to use your lithium. to me, this is not so efficient, now is it.

so if UPS uses lithium and FredX uses H, UPS goes chap 11.so how wonderful solar can make electric, and even if it powers the grid, looks like other problems will make all electric things not very useful. nice to have 1x10^63636363 kVA waiting to be used, but if you can't use it, what's the point?

where you get energy and how efficient that harvest is, is only half the problem.
 
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  • #553
Physics_Kid said:
perhaps i am confused.

Yes, you are.

Physics_Kid said:
solar is an energy source, H is not?? coal is a energy source, H is not??

Correct.

Physics_Kid said:
they are all just carriers of energy

In one sense, yes. But that is not relevant to whether or not they are energy sources in the sense you're using the term. See below.

Physics_Kid said:
H is a source, and there's lots of it.

No, there isn't. There is no hydrogen sitting around on Earth the way natural gas or coal or oil is just sitting in the ground, or the way sunshine is just coming in for free. There are chemical compounds that contain hydrogen, but getting hydrogen from those compounds costs more energy than you get back when you use the hydrogen as fuel.

Physics_Kid said:
how you get it is the same problem like how to get electric from solar, or how to get gas from fracking

No, H is not the same as all these other things. When you get electric from solar, or gas from fracking, or coal from mining, or oil from a well,, the energy you get out (electric from solar or by burning the natural gas) is more than the energy it cost you to get it (to make the solar cell or frack the gas or mine the coal or pump the oil). When you get hydrogen on Earth from any process, whether it's splitting water into hydrogen and oxygen or getting it via some other chemical reaction from natural gas, the energy you get from the hydrogen is less than the energy it took to obtain the hydrogen. That is why hydrogen (on Earth, at least) is not an energy source the way solar or natural gas is.

Of course, if you don't care about that because you have a cheap, plentiful source of energy, then hydrogen can be used as an energy storage medium (similar to a battery, which is basically what it's shown as competing with in the chart you give). But energy storage is not the same as "energy source" in the sense of having energy just sitting there "free" for the taking. It still costs more energy to make the hydrogen than the energy you get by burning the hydrogen. Just as it costs more energy to make and charge a battery than the energy you get out when you discharge it.

Physics_Kid said:
Toyota and others are building H cars

Yes, because they don't care whether hydrogen is an energy source, what they care about is whether it might end up being a better energy storage medium than batteries, all things considered. The only way to find out is to try and build them both in a competitive environment and see which one wins.
 
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  • #554
PeterDonis, please keep answering/address all my points made in #552.
i like the rebuttal.
 
  • #555
Physics_Kid said:
perhaps i am confused.
solar is an energy source, H is not?? coal is a energy source, H is not?? ...

As @PeterDonis pointed out so well, yes, you are, and seem to continue to be confused, or are just not accepting what is being explained to you (or possibly not serious about any of this at all?). I'm a simple person, allow me to try to explain in a simple way:

Imagine you walk up to a 10 story building with two pulleys at the top, each with a long rope and bucket of water attached. One bucket of water was earlier raised to the top by someone and the rope tied off, the other bucket is on the ground. I think you understand that the bucket at the top has potential energy that could be calculated knowing the height, mass, and gravitational constant. If you simply apply a tiny bit of energy to cut or loosen the rope, you can 'harvest' that energy. But you can't do that with the bucket on the ground, there is no stored energy for you to use.

The bucket at the top is like oil, NG, or wood to burn. The potential energy was already put there before we got there, and is easy for us to release. To get energy out of the bucket on the ground, you have to put the energy in. And some of your energy is wasted by friction in the process. So just use your energy directly.

Solar? OK, you can set a reflector and a black pot out on a bright summer day, and obtain enough heat to cook a meal. But if I give you a pot of water (which contains Hydrogen in the H2O molecule), you can't cook a meal with it. It just sits there. You need to put energy into it. You can't just get energy out of the hydrogen that is in water, without putting more energy into it.

What isn't understood there (and I do think this should be in another thread about why Hydrogen isn't an energy source like other fuels)?emphasis mine:
Physics_Kid said:
... so how wonderful solar can make electric, and even if it powers the grid, looks like other problems will make all electric things not very useful. nice to have 1x10^63636363 kVA waiting to be used, but if you can't use it, what's the point? ...

If you understand this for electrical storage, why don't you understand it for Hydrogen storage?

Physics_Kid said:
...where you get energy and how efficient that harvest is, is only half the problem.

It's more than half the problem with Hydrogen, it's not even a starter - since there is no energy to 'harvest'.

There is an expression I heard recently, probably on this forum - "That's not even wrong.". Meaning, it is so far off base, that it is even hard to discuss the right/wrong about it. You need to go back and work on understanding the basics of energy - preferably in another thread, so this one can be about advances in solar power, not on and on about your misunderstandings of Hydrogen and energy. Sorry if that comes across as terse, but I am running out of patience with this subject diverting from the main subject.

I tried, that's all can do.
 
  • #556
Physics_Kid said:
yet nothing about the pollution a lithium harvesting and batt making process does ?

There's certainly plenty of bashing on all sides, but I have seen reasonable analyses that take into account the full life cycle costs of different energy sources--including harvesting, manufacturing, usage, and disposal. My sense from what I've seen is that batteries in general are not significantly different from other technologies as far as pollution is concerned.

Physics_Kid said:
4k mi trip, H and Tesla can go 400mi per tank. H takes 5min to fill, lithium take 8hrs. same speed.

Yes, recharge time is the key downside of battery technology as it currently stands. As I understand it, Tesla's solution to that problem, long term, is to swap the batteries instead of recharging them. In other words, you pull into a "filling station", an automated system slides the old battery pack out of your car and slides a new, freshly charged one in. Time required similar to the time to fill a gas or hydrogen tank.

Again, the only way to know for sure is to let companies try building all of these technologies in a competitive environment and see which one wins. I don't think crunching numbers based on estimates is going to tell us much at this point beyond "well, all of them are probably worth trying", which we already knew anyway.
 
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  • #557
PeterDonis said:
As I understand it, Tesla's solution to that problem, long term, is to swap the batteries instead of recharging them.
Apparently not. Tesla built exactly one swap station for owners, and sent a couple hundred invitations to use it. A half dozen accepted, and each used the station once. It has since been closed.

[Swap is ]clearly not very popular," Musk said.

Even though Tesla has since invited all Model S owners in California to try the battery swap program, Musk expects the entire customer base will behave similarly to the initial sample group.

"People don't care about pack swap," Musk said. "The superchargers are fast enough. Based on what we're seeing here, it's unlikely to be something that's worth expanding in the future unless something changes
http://fortune.com/2015/06/10/teslas-battery-swap-is-dead/

Since that 2015 statement there have been increasing complaints about crowded charging stations, especially when a small queue means a wait of 1 to 2 hours. Tesla has also said it does not expect to raise the the charging power of stations. This makes sense given the 10% power as heat rejection and battery life impact above 1.5C charge.

I agree with your initial assessment, that charging time is the most serious problem for BEVS, especially for mass adoption.
 
  • #558
Physics_Kid said:
oil is in the ground, it has potential energy. H is in water, it has potential energy. its nothing more than energy conversion. the efficiency of each end-to-end can be whatever you say, as in solar >>> H, or solar >>>>>>>> H. but so what, efficiency is a technical problem, not a source problem.
H in H2O does not have usable potential energy* - it is already bound in a low energy state configuration. All the chemical potential energy it had was was emitted when it reacted with oxygen (aka burned) to make water.

The proper comparison is not between oil (refined or otherwise) and H2O, but with what you get from burning oil and H2O. You wanting to use H from H2O for power is like wanting to use CO2 and H2O (from burning hydrocarbons) to make oil and O2 so that you can then burn them again.
The point everyone has been making here is that it takes more energy to make the fuel than you then recover. In the most perfect ideal conditions you can only get exactly as much from burning it as you put into making it. It's not a matter of technical efficiency, it's a matter of basic chemistry.

In fact, if it were possible to extract nett energy from splitting H2O, then it'd be possible to make perpetual motion machines. You'd use X energy to split H2O into H2 and O, then allow these products to burn and obtain X+Y in the process of making H2O again. You'd then feed X energy back into the reaction to split the H2O, for nett gain of Y energy per reaction.
In the real world you can only ever hope to approach obtaining X energy from burning as your efficiency approaches 100%. You'll never go over unity to extract the additional Y.*unless you burn it in fluorine, but I hope nobody thinks that's a good idea.
 
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  • #559
OmCheeto said:
...
I REALLY fell in love with the concept of CHP when I first heard about it. I was wondering, if like the Drakes Landing thermal system, solar pv could be used in the summer to split water, and convert that into methane (Sabatier reaction) , which could be stored until winter.

Haven't even started the maths on that yet. It probably also needs its own thread, if it doesn't already exist. Probably kind of expensive.
Oh my god. After 8 hours of research, and walls of maths, I've decided that this is a problem laden idea.
Based on my sister's use in San Diego, she would need a 7 kw solar array to generate enough methane to replace her natural gas line.
She would also need to store 175 kg of methane, which I think would need to be liquified.
And since the system is already at the break even point financially*, I decided it was time to give up.

*Definite maybe here. Prices for CO2 vary from $10 to $1000 per ton for "atmospheric" extraction, depending on who you listen to. And nowhere could I determine where any of these people came up with those prices.

ps. I'm so bad at chemistry, at one point, I resorted to determining the cost to generate H2 via electrolysis: $1.44E-26/H2 molecule.
pps. I did the maths, as I saw that Richard Branson was offering $25,000,000 to anyone who could do this. So, even though I failed, I thought it was worth the effort. (Actually, he just wanted a viable air capture CO2 extractor design. But CO2 cost was the bug my system, so I figured he'd divvy up, if I solved an extra problem.)
ppps. Fun problem!
 
  • #560
Not to poke this gorilla, but my apartment complex in Fort Worth Texas (yes, Texas, where some of the biggest oil producers are) is entirely run on renewable power via the company https://www.greenmountainenergy.com/, I am all for it, it might cost a tad bit more, but my weekend power is free... Renewable energy is being used in spits and spurts all over, problem is that it is in percentage points of the total...

My oldest kid who is a newly minted environmental engineer can't wait to come to visit and find out about this company.
 
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  • #561
Dr Transport said:
Not to poke this gorilla, but my apartment complex in Fort Worth Texas (yes, Texas, where some of the biggest oil producers are) is entirely run on renewable power via the company https://www.greenmountainenergy.com/, I am all for it, it might cost a tad bit more, but my weekend power is free... Renewable energy is being used in spits and spurts all over, problem is that it is in percentage points of the total...

My oldest kid who is a newly minted environmental engineer can't wait to come to visit and find out about this company.
Be wary: I went for a job interview with them and it is basically a multi-level marketing scheme and more or less a scam. They don't generate much of their own power, but rather over-pay for electricity that is already being generated.
 
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  • #562
russ_watters said:
Be wary: I applied for a job there and it is basically a multi-level marketing scheme and more or less a scam. They don't generate much of their own power, but rather over-pay for electricity that is already being generated.
I'll pass that along to my apartment management...good to know.
 
  • #563
As long as we burn coal and oil (stationary), there are places with 20% CO2 instead of 0.04% - the exhaust of these power plants. Capturing that to make hydrocarbons is rarely a good idea, of course.
 
  • #564
russ_watters said:
Dr Transport said:
Not to poke this gorilla, but my apartment complex in Fort Worth Texas (yes, Texas, where some of the biggest oil producers are) is entirely run on renewable power via the company https://www.greenmountainenergy.com/, I am all for it, it might cost a tad bit more, but my weekend power is free... Renewable energy is being used in spits and spurts all over, problem is that it is in percentage points of the total...

My oldest kid who is a newly minted environmental engineer can't wait to come to visit and find out about this company.
Be wary: I went for a job interview with them and it is basically a multi-level marketing scheme and more or less a scam. They don't generate much of their own power, but rather over-pay for electricity that is already being generated.

Yes, these plans where they say you are 100% renewable due to paying them for electricity never made sense to me.

Like, if you didn't sign up, they would shut down their wind turbines and solar panels? Or they never would have installed them without your commitment? I don't think so, they get a premium for that power. Seems to me they just scrape an extra penny per kWh by reselling to people who want to feel good about this.
 
  • #565
NTL2009 said:
Yes, these plans where they say you are 100% renewable due to paying them for electricity never made sense to me.

Like, if you didn't sign up, they would shut down their wind turbines and solar panels? Or they never would have installed them without your commitment? I don't think so, they get a premium for that power. Seems to me they just scrape an extra penny per kWh by reselling to people who want to feel good about this.

No they would not have, but I'd not have my apartment because they required that I get my power from greenmountain...
 
  • #566
Dr Transport said:
No they would not have, but I'd not have my apartment because they required that I get my power from greenmountain...
Sorry, you lost me.

From your previous post, what would your son learn by visiting to find out about this company (or visiting your apartment - that wasn't clear either?)? It's not like you can see where your electricity comes from.

I think you could learn about them here:

https://www.consumeraffairs.com/texas-electricity-companies/green-mountain-energy.html
 
  • #567
NTL2009 said:
Sorry, you lost me.

From your previous post, what would your son learn by visiting to find out about this company (or visiting your apartment - that wasn't clear either?)? It's not like you can see where your electricity comes from.

I think you could learn about them here:

https://www.consumeraffairs.com/texas-electricity-companies/green-mountain-energy.html

And down the rabbit hole we go...

Wiki re: ConsumerAffairs.com
Criticism
In October 21, 2014, Truth in Advertising published "Who is ConsumerAffairs.com Really Advocating For?" In the article, Unbeatablesale.com complained to the Electronic Retailing Self-Regulation Program, a division of the Better Business Bureaus and National Advertising Review Council, that ConsumerAffairs "creates biased and negative portrayals of companies that don't pay for its service called ConsumerAffairs for Brands."

Sounds like the mafia to me.

russ_watters said:
Be wary: I went for a job interview with them and it is basically a multi-level marketing scheme and more or less a scam. They don't generate much of their own power, but rather over-pay for electricity that is already being generated.

They told you they were scammers in your interview? hmmmm...

Anyways, wiki says this about the company, NRG, that owns Green Mountain:
Following the acquisition of Reliant, NRG extended its retail footprint with the acquisition of Green Mountain Energy in November 2010. In doing so, NRG also became the largest retailer of green power in the nation, providing all of its Green Mountain and many of its Reliant customers with energy derived from 100% renewable resources.

The most interesting fact about NRG was this number: "After the GenOn merger, NRG has 47,000 MW of total generation capacity, enough to power approximately 40 million homes."

That's 1/3 of the homes in America! All supplied by one company. I find that interesting. I'm not sure why, but I do.
 
  • #568
NTL2009 said:
Sorry, you lost me.

From your previous post, what would your son learn by visiting to find out about this company (or visiting your apartment - that wasn't clear either?)? It's not like you can see where your electricity comes from.

I think you could learn about them here:

https://www.consumeraffairs.com/texas-electricity-companies/green-mountain-energy.html
He was going to look into the company as a possible employer...
 
  • #569
Dr Transport said:
He was going to look into the company as a possible employer...

OK. But what about your other comment - "... I'd not have my apartment because they required that I get my power from greenmountain..."? That's the one that I got lost on. Why wouldn't you have your apartment?
OmCheeto said:
And down the rabbit hole we go...
...
Anyways, wiki says this about the company, NRG, that owns Green Mountain:
Following the acquisition of Reliant, NRG extended its retail footprint with the acquisition of Green Mountain Energy in November 2010. In doing so, NRG also became the largest retailer of green power in the nation, providing all of its Green Mountain and many of its Reliant customers with energy derived from 100% renewable resources.
...

The bolded part is what I'm really wondering about. I just can't see how signing a contract for 100% renewable energy does much of anything at all. It seems like a marketing ploy/semi-scam to me.

As I said earlier, does my signing on actually cause a single added kWh of renewable energy to be produced? How so?

They're not going to disconnect their wind turbines or solar panels if I don't sign up, a market already exists for that power. Maybe, just maybe, the extra penny (or whatever) they might make on these contracts provides a little more incentive to install more wind/solar? But I think demand already exists, not sure this would create any tipping-point decision for a new wind or solar farm. But if it does, I think the effect is very slight, certainly not 100% responsible. So it seems to me these certificates don't result in any significant amount of renewable energy production, they are just a 'badge' sold to well-meaning people who want to advertise (or just feel good personally about) their 'commitment' to green energy?

I also cringe a bit when I see these announcements that some facility, or entity is going to be 100% renewable energy by year 20XX. I'd be more impressed if they showed they could do that by disconnecting from the grid (but that would be rather stupid and bad economics). But as long as they are reliant on the grid, and the fossil/nuke back up, are they really 100% renewable? Oh, except for the part that isn't?

OK, maybe saying "We will install enough renewable energy to offset our energy usage", is too big a mouthful for a headline or public statement. I'd need to look at one of those though, I'm pretty sure they really just mean the electrical energy they consume, not the energy they use for their delivery trucks, or maybe heating the building, or producing the products they sell.
 
  • #570
Dr Transport said:
He was going to look into the company as a possible employer...
After some googling, I now understand what Russ was saying. It's not so much a scam on the customers, as much as it is a scam on the employees.

But wiki claims that there are plenty of such companies: List of multi-level marketing companies
So I don't know that it's fair to kick one horse, and not all the rest.

NTL2009 said:
The bolded part is what I'm really wondering about. I just can't see how signing a contract for 100% renewable energy does much of anything at all. It seems like a marketing ploy/semi-scam to me.

Perhaps someone needs to explain "retail" to me. I always though it was only Joe-blow customer that was sold "retail" stuff. Are business to business sales also considered "retail"?
All I know, is that Green Mountain supplies my electrical provider(PGE) with 100% green energy.
For about the last 20 years or so, I've been donating $2.50 a month to something called "Clean Wind".
So each month, I get 200 kwh of "wind energy". I think. The wind doesn't always blow, so like you, I don't fully understand their maths.

As I said earlier, does my signing on actually cause a single added kWh of renewable energy to be produced? How so?

I would think so.

Om's silly "wind" donations * 20 years * 120 million households = $72 billion

http://www.windustry.org/how_much_do_wind_turbines_cost
$3.50/watt wind

$72 billion / ($3.5/watt) = 20,600 MW

http://www.awea.org/wind-energy-facts-at-a-glance
Total U.S. installed wind capacity, through end of 2016: 82,143 MW

Om's relative contribution: ¼​

So, "my demand" for 200 kwh/month of wind power seems to have partially funded the current installed wind capacity.

I like to think that's how it works.

Of course, some people are really serious about "green energy".
I believe Artman paid 3 to 4 times more for his "PV system" than I did for my house!
 
  • #571
OmCheeto said:
After some googling, I now understand what Russ was saying. It's not so much a scam on the customers, as much as it is a scam on the employees.
Actually, I think it's both.

I consider multi-level marketing schemes to be abusive of employees. For those not familiar, they are a pyramid scheme from the sales side, where the salesmen make money both by doing sales and by recruiting more salesmen. The "interview" I went to wasn't really an interview insofar as there wasn't any specific job to fill, just more sales-people to sign up. If you're not competing for a job, and there is no base pay, that tells you your value to the company: zero. Ultimately it felt like they hoped you'd sell to your friends and family before giving-up and quitting. My understanding is Avon pioneered this strategy, and there are a lot of modern "Avon"s out there, which are abusive to women whom as housewives are not considered to have any value as workers, so you don't have to pay them. It should be illegal.

On the product side, [did a bit of research], things have gotten better since my "interview". At the time (2002), they didn't own any generating facilities and mostly just bought and re-sold hydro power. I think re-selling, at a mark-up, hydro power from decades-old hydro plants that are bought and paid for already and will generate electricity whether you buy it at a higher price or not is pointless. But they have since opened two wind farms in 2009 and 2010 and it looks like from their rates that at this point almost all of their electricity is from those wind farms or re-selling from other wind farms. Building your own wind farm is directly supporting wind energy. Re-selling power from someone else's wind farm is indirectly supporting wind energy, which isn't as good, but is still better than re-selling hydro power.
 
  • #572
NTL2009 said:
OK. But what about your other comment - "... I'd not have my apartment because they required that I get my power from greenmountain..."? That's the one that I got lost on. Why wouldn't you have your apartment?
They have a contract with Greenmountain to provide electricity, you have to sign on with them and show a valid account number to take possession of your apartment.
 
  • #573
russ_watters said:
Actually, I think it's both.

I consider multi-level marketing schemes to be abusive of employees. For those not familiar, they are a pyramid scheme from the sales side, where the salesmen make money both by doing sales and by recruiting more salesmen. The "interview" I went to wasn't really an interview insofar as there wasn't any specific job to fill, just more sales-people to sign up. If you're not competing for a job, and there is no base pay, that tells you your value to the company: zero. Ultimately it felt like they hoped you'd sell to your friends and family before giving-up and quitting. My understanding is Avon pioneered this strategy, and there are a lot of modern "Avon"s out there, which are abusive to women whom as housewives are not considered to have any value as workers, so you don't have to pay them. It should be illegal.

On the product side, [did a bit of research], things have gotten better since my "interview". At the time (2002), they didn't own any generating facilities and mostly just bought and re-sold hydro power. I think re-selling, at a mark-up, hydro power from decades-old hydro plants that are bought and paid for already and will generate electricity whether you buy it at a higher price or not is pointless. But they have since opened two wind farms in 2009 and 2010 and it looks like from their rates that at this point almost all of their electricity is from those wind farms or re-selling from other wind farms. Building your own wind farm is directly supporting wind energy. Re-selling power from someone else's wind farm is indirectly supporting wind energy, which isn't as good, but is still better than re-selling hydro power.

I disagree on the "customer" part.

Caveat Emptor.

Though, I'm guessing this is where the demand for "Marketing" majors came from. A lot of people aren't smart enough to know what's good (or bad) for them, so they need someone to "feed" them.

And, as always, in an interesting subject, we again seem to be straying off topic.

The future of solar power!

ps. Stupid sun will not come out again today. Argh! I have only 3 days left to do a solar science experiment!

gleem said:
So your battery wouldn't give you much for a freezer.
<10 minutes, just to power my new/old 100 watt refrigerator...

I am soooooo screwed...
 
  • #574
OmCheeto said:
I disagree on the "customer" part.

Caveat Emptor.
How so? Are you just saying the customers have to pay more attention to what they are buying? I kind of agree. Like I said, it isn't as bad as it used to be with these guys.
And, as always, in an interesting subject, we again seem to be straying off topic.

The future of solar power!
Actually, we're not. You may have noticed I didn't mention solar power at all in this discussion of Green Mountain Energy, but that's a problem hiding in plain sight: they buy very little solar power.

Looking at their plans:
https://www.greenmountainenergy.com/for-home/shop-for-electricity/

For my area, not sure if you can see this without filling-out the form:
https://www.greenmountainenergy.com/for-home/products/peco/

Their basic plan - their most popular - is $0.069 / kWh for 100% wind, whereas their new 100% solar plan is $0.099, more than 40% more expensive. That's still a problem for the long-term viability of solar power.
 
  • #575
Literature indicates solar becomes uneconomic with increasing share of generation, as more installation after a few percent canabalizes the value of existing capacity. More than a decade of data is available now on solar power usage in major countries, which seems to confirm predictions. Apparently solar hits a wall at ~7-8% share of total generation. The five largest countries by installed solar share:

c642254ac63158554e7a743ef38b86bbc9c33b979d9f2829990ca67593ad14dd.jpg


Most of the world is still below 1% solar, so the industry has considerable growth potential, though the data above suggests limits ahead, perhaps lower than these five countries when subsidies are not feasible.
 
  • #576
What is causing the "wall"? Political resistance? Lack of panel availability? Splitting up the sun between too many cells?
 
  • #577
Germany and Japan are not particularly sunny countries and population density is high. They don't have huge unpopulated areas, and no deserts.
 
  • #578
Algr said:
What is causing the "wall"? Political resistance? Lack of panel availability? Splitting up the sun between too many cells?
None of the above as far as I can tell. I believe the reason for topping out is simple math, and lack of practical/affordable storage now, or on the horizon.

The panels are only producing a portion of the day (and varies seasonally as well in most areas), with that 8% concentrated into mid-day. So the actual solar power near noon and in-season is a much higher number ( ~ 4 x the 8%? maybe/probably even higher?). Other base load power plants can't be cut back too much, and still be ready for morning and late afternoon peaks, so you can get to the point where the solar power simple cannot be used, and therefore not sold.

Every incremental panel you add at that point is adding to the 'problem', delivering more of its power when it can't be sold, so the economic return on each added panel becomes less and less. There may also be issues of not being able to regulate voltage/frequency of the grid when there is a high % of decentralized power that can't be controlled - but that is beyond my knowledge. There are others here steeped in grid technicalities that could address that.
 
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  • #579
Algr said:
What is causing the "wall"? Political resistance? Lack of panel availability? Splitting up the sun between too many cells?
My guess is "storage capacity".
You have to pay REALLY CLOSE ATTENTION to what mhesleps graph is saying.

My guess as to what it is saying; "We've installed solar to the point where it supplies 100% of our needs when it's sunny. We didn't think about storage, so, there is no need to add more, until we solve that problem."
 
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  • #580
mheslep said:
Literature indicates solar becomes uneconomic with increasing share of generation, as more installation after a few percent canabalizes the value of existing capacity. More than a decade of data is available now on solar power usage in major countries, which seems to confirm predictions. Apparently solar hits a wall at ~7-8% share of total generation. The five largest countries by installed solar share:

View attachment 211050

Most of the world is still below 1% solar, so the industry has considerable growth potential, though the data above suggests limits ahead, perhaps lower than these five countries when subsidies are not feasible.
I suspect the wall is because of the policies in place for grid attachment.
Net metering and other plans that pay more than the wholesale rate, are accounting dead ends, and will generate push back from the utilities.
The pushback is because they like to stay in business, the response to the utility pushback is often to lower the amount paid for surplus power.
this in turn makes solar less attractive, to the homeowner.
I think solar is strong enough to stand on it's own merit, but they need to sell it correctly.
 
  • #581
johnbbahm said:
...
I think solar is strong enough to stand on it's own merit, but they need to sell it correctly.

And how do you sell solar power at noon, if everyone already has all they can use?

It's like the old joke (not to make a joke of the issue though), of selling refrigerators to the Eskimos.
 
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  • #582
OmCheeto said:
My guess is "storage capacity".
You have to pay REALLY CLOSE ATTENTION to what mhesleps graph is saying.

My guess as to what it is saying; "We've installed solar to the point where it supplies 100% of our needs when it's sunny. We didn't think about storage, so, there is no need to add more, until we solve that problem."
If one thinks about it a bit, the biggest surpluses will be in Spring and Fall when it is still sunny, but not
hot enough or cold enough for AC or Heating.
I think the surpluses could be stored as man made hydrocarbon fuels made at existing refineries.
The efficiency is only about 70%, but the power was going to be wasted anyway.
 
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  • #583
Algr said:
What is causing the "wall"? Political resistance? Lack of panel availability? Splitting up the sun between too many cells?
It is mostly availability of the sun and matching the grid demand with the solar supply. In a country like Germany, you get an availability factor of at best 20%, which means 8% of annual consumption corresponds to a peak capacity of 40% of peak load. If the solar production peals at a time when the load is low, there can be a surplus, which has to be wasted or given away for free, providing no economic benefit. This has already happened: enviro-leaning news reports days of 100% renewable supply as glorious harbingers of an all renewable future but In reality they are economic disasters signaling the end of dollar's expansion.

In addition, solar still has to be fully backed up by conventional sources, which means the more solar you put in, the more expensive the backup gets (because it is used less).
 
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  • #584
NTL2009 said:
And how do you sell solar power at noon, if everyone already has all they can use?

It's like the old joke (not to make a joke of the issue though), of selling refrigerators to the Eskimos.
You change the market, it would take about 50 Kwh to make a gallon of gasoline from scratch (Water and atmospheric CO2).
When something is over supplied, it is a buyers market.
There would be almost no limit into how much fuel that could be produced during surplus cycles.
Once the energy is stored as a hydrocarbon, it's shelve life is greatly extended.
 
  • #585
johnbbahm said:
If one thinks about it a bit, the biggest surpluses will be in Spring and Fall when it is still sunny, but not
hot enough or cold enough for AC or Heating.
I think the surpluses could be stored as man made hydrocarbon fuels made at existing refineries.
The efficiency is only about 70%, but the power was going to be wasted anyway.
...making solar even more expensive. The 8% limit isn't a technical hurdle per se, it is a threshold above which you can no longer ignore some of solar's major grid impact downsides and have to start paying even more to alleviate them.
 
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  • #586
russ_watters said:
It is mostly availability of the sun and matching the grid demand with the solar supply. In a country like Germany, you get an availability factor of at best 20%, which means 8% of annual consumption corresponds to a peak capacity of 40% of peak load. If the solar production peals at a time when the load is low, there can be a surplus, which has to be wasted or given away for free, providing no economic benefit. This has already happened: enviro-leaning news reports days of 100% renewable supply as glorious harbingers of an all renewable future but In reality they are economic disasters signaling the end of dollar's expansion.

In addition, solar still has to be fully backed up by conventional sources, which means the more solar you put in, the more expensive the backup gets (because it is used less).
Germany has been aware of this problem for quite a while, and has considered energy storage as a solution.
https://www.fraunhofer.de/en/press/research-news/2010/04/green-electricity-storage-gas.html
I think natural gas is too cheap to be viable right now, but the technology has advanced and they can now make liquid fuels.
 
  • #587
johnbbahm said:
When something is over supplied, it is a buyers market.
...and producers no longer have any incentive to produce more. That's what has happened!
 
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  • #588
russ_watters said:
...making solar even more expensive. The 8% limit isn't a technical hurdle per se, it is a threshold above which you can no longer ignore some of solar's major grid impact downsides and have to start paying even more to alleviate them.
By finding a new market for the surplus, the wall may disappear.
 
  • #589
johnbbahm said:
Germany has been aware of this problem for quite a while, and has considered energy storage as a solution.
Yes, as I said there are technical solutions; this is primarily an economic problem. Germany already pays dearly for their solar and above that threshold it gets a lot worse.
 
  • #590
johnbbahm said:
By finding a new market for the surplus, the wall may disappear.
That doesn't make the wall disappear, it adds a second nonviable product on top of solar. Sure, you can do it but the pain threshold only goes so high.
 
  • #591
russ_watters said:
Yes, as I said there are technical solutions; this is primarily an economic problem. Germany already pays dearly for their solar and above that threshold it gets a lot worse.
The ability to store energy for later use and other applications could be a game changer,
we will have to see if this is how it plays out.
Perhaps the oil companies could pay solar homeowners in fuel credits for their surplus, or something like that.
 
  • #592
johnbbahm said:
By finding a new market for the surplus, the wall may disappear.
johnbbahm said:
Germany has been aware of this problem for quite a while, and has considered energy storage as a solution.
https://www.fraunhofer.de/en/press/research-news/2010/04/green-electricity-storage-gas.html
I think natural gas is too cheap to be viable right now, but the technology has advanced and they can now make liquid fuels.

Sure - but where is this new market?

The link you provided is from 2010. Have they come close to commercializing this in the past 7 years? Are there updates?

You need to take into account the efficiency, any losses make the electricity that much more expensive. Then add in amortizing the capital costs (and ongoing costs) of the storage system. The electricity is getting expensive, maybe so expensive that no one wants it?

And those capital costs for the storage system - remember, storing a few hours of say a 10% excess on a grid is a very large storage system ( a single typical coal plant is ~ 800 MW). So that system will be very expensive. And then, it only gets used during peaks, which will not be everyday, and will be seasonal. That is a very difficult economic case to make.

The ability to store energy for later use and other applications could be a game changer,
we will have to see if this is how it plays out.

Except there really is no "solution" that I know of on the horizon. Only ideas, none of them with a path towards practicality that we can see at this time. And large systems take a very long time to get deployed.

I wish it weren't so, but wishes an't change reality.
 
  • #593
russ_watters said:
That doesn't make the wall disappear, it adds a second nonviable product on top of solar. Sure, you can do it but the pain threshold only goes so high.
I do not think the pain threshold is that high.
If Sunfire is to be believed, they can create fuel at 70% efficiency (The Naval Research labs say 60%).
This means it would take 50 Kwh to make a gallon of gasoline counting breaking down the water and cracking the CO2.
At a wholesale price of 3 cents per Kwh, the cost to make a gallon of gasoline would be about $1.50,
or roughly equal to about $60 a barrel oil.
Gasoline, Diesel, and jet fuels are all viable products, if the price is right.
 
  • #594
johnbbahm said:
The ability to store energy for later use and other applications could be a game changer...
It's pretty unlikely. There are plenty of technically doable storage solutions out there, but by nature they are really difficult to make economically viable.
Perhaps the oil companies could pay solar homeowners in fuel credits for their surplus, or something like that.
I can't imagine why an oil company would ever want to do such a thing.
 
  • #595
NTL2009 said:
Sure - but where is this new market?

The link you provided is from 2010. Have they come close to commercializing this in the past 7 years? Are there updates?

You need to take into account the efficiency, any losses make the electricity that much more expensive. Then add in amortizing the capital costs (and ongoing costs) of the storage system. The electricity is getting expensive, maybe so expensive that no one wants it?

And those capital costs for the storage system - remember, storing a few hours of say a 10% excess on a grid is a very large storage system ( a single typical coal plant is ~ 800 MW). So that system will be very expensive. And then, it only gets used during peaks, which will not be everyday, and will be seasonal. That is a very difficult economic case to make.
Sorry, I posted the 2010 link to show they have been working on the problem for a while.
http://www.sunfire.de/en/applications/fuel
https://www.nrl.navy.mil/media/news-releases/2014/scale-model-wwii-craft-takes-flight-with-fuel-from-the-sea-concept
Both Audi/Sunfire and the Naval Research labs have ongoing research efforts.
The Navy researchers seem to think they can have a detached carrier group by 2021.
 
  • #596
russ_watters said:
It's pretty unlikely. There are plenty of technically doable storage solutions out there, but by nature they are really difficult to make economically viable.

I can't imagine why an oil company would ever want to do such a thing.
The oil companies sell finished fuel products, if there are greater profits from making their own feedstock,
well they are in business to make profits.
 
  • #597
johnbbahm said:
I do not think the pain threshold is that high.
If Sunfire is to be believed, they can create fuel at 70% efficiency (The Naval Research labs say 60%).
This means it would take 50 Kwh to make a gallon of gasoline counting breaking down the water and cracking the CO2.
At a wholesale price of 3 cents per Kwh, the cost to make a gallon of gasoline would be about $1.50,
or roughly equal to about $60 a barrel oil.
Gasoline, Diesel, and jet fuels are all viable products, if the price is right.
You're making the same conservation of money and energy mistake another member made earlier. It can't possibly ever be more economical to store energy as fuel than you can use it outright because by storing it you lose some, which means you have to make/buy more than if you didn't store it.

...even if we go with that unreasonably low price per kwh...

...aso, That's just the energy; it doesn't include the cost of the technology or facilities; It's the "solar is free" fallacy.
 
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  • #598
johnbbahm said:
Sorry, I posted the 2010 link to show they have been working on the problem for a while.
http://www.sunfire.de/en/applications/fuel
https://www.nrl.navy.mil/media/news-releases/2014/scale-model-wwii-craft-takes-flight-with-fuel-from-the-sea-concept
Both Audi/Sunfire and the Naval Research labs have ongoing research efforts.
The Navy researchers seem to think they can have a detached carrier group by 2021.
johnbbahm said:
I do not think the pain threshold is that high.
If Sunfire is to be believed, they can create fuel at 70% efficiency (The Naval Research labs say 60%).
This means it would take 50 Kwh to make a gallon of gasoline counting breaking down the water and cracking the CO2.
At a wholesale price of 3 cents per Kwh, the cost to make a gallon of gasoline would be about $1.50,
or roughly equal to about $60 a barrel oil.
Gasoline, Diesel, and jet fuels are all viable products, if the price is right.

OK, but that cost is just the electricity cost. This process, while likely achievable technically, appears fairly complex, and likely relatively expensive equipment. So again, amortize the capital costs across a part-time application of excess solar, and I still think it will be very tough.

Military applications are often "we need to do this, cost is not a primary concern". There is a benefit from making fuel while at sea, even if the cost is very high.
 
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  • #599
NTL2009 said:
And how do you sell solar power at noon, if everyone already has all they can use?

If this lid is real then the short term solutions would be:

- Concentrate on bringing solar power to markets that are not yet near the usage limit.
- Install other forms of clean power. For example, the windiest days tend not to be the sunniest.
- Encourage industry to schedule its most energy intensive activities for when power is most available. This is a basic free market response.
- Restore and improve long distance power distribution. Wind and sunlight very locally, but less so from region to region.
- Continue to improve storage techniques of all kinds.

Note that the first three options here cost nothing beyond what we are already spending, the 4th is needed regardless of whether or not we add renewables, and the fifth is largely driven by cell phones and consumer electronics.
 
  • #600
And when comparing costs of fossil fuels to renewables, remember that the war in Iraq is basically a six trillion dollar oil subsidy. The hidden costs of renewables pale in comparison.
 
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