Yield (ROI = Return Of Investment) formula question

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Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around calculating the odds required to achieve a specific Return on Investment (ROI) of 15% in betting scenarios. Participants explore the mathematical relationships between odds, probability of success, and expected returns, focusing on how to derive the necessary odds for a desired yield.

Discussion Character

  • Mathematical reasoning
  • Technical explanation
  • Homework-related

Main Points Raised

  • One participant outlines the formula for ROI as (Winnings / Stakes) x 100 and provides an example with 1000 bets at odds of 2.00, resulting in a 0% yield.
  • Another participant introduces variables for probability (p = 1/odds) and winnings (R = 2), explaining that to achieve a specific ROI, one can manipulate the formula pR - 1 = desired ROI.
  • A follow-up request for a step-by-step calculation is made, indicating a lack of comfort with the mathematical explanation provided earlier.
  • Excel instructions are provided to facilitate the calculation of required odds based on the desired ROI, suggesting a practical approach to the problem.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants do not reach a consensus on the calculations, as one participant seeks clarification and step-by-step guidance, indicating some uncertainty in understanding the mathematical concepts presented.

Contextual Notes

The discussion assumes familiarity with basic probability and ROI calculations but does not resolve the complexities involved in deriving the necessary odds for a specific yield.

Who May Find This Useful

This discussion may be useful for individuals interested in betting strategies, probability calculations, and those looking to understand the relationship between odds and ROI in practical applications.

rivica
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[SOLVED] Yield (ROI = Return Of Investment) formula question

The Calculation of simple yield:

The Return*
(Winnings)
__________ X 100= ROI (%)

Investment*
(Stakes)


so for example: I have 1000 bets with odds 2,00
500 of them are winning and 500 losing. So i am on 0 and my ROI is zero

Would like to get right odds to have 15% yield,
How to calculate on what odds should i be to have ROI 15% ?
Because odds are not always 2,00 - they are different but i gave 2,00 as example...

So, i know what are odds to have 0% yield, but would like to get with some formula odds to have 15% yield (ROI)!?

Thanks very much for help!
Ivica
 
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Let p = 1/odds be the probability of success, and R = 2 be the amount you win on a success (as a multiple of the amount you put down). Suppose you play n games, where n is large (in your case n = 1000, but it doesn't really matter).

Expected winnings are npR, and expected cost is n. ROI is (npR - n)/n = pR - 1.

If you want ROI to be 0.15, just solve pR - 1 = 0.15. If R is fixed at 2.00, solve 2p - 1 = 0.15.
 
CRGreathouse said:
Let p = 1/odds be the probability of success, and R = 2 be the amount you win on a success (as a multiple of the amount you put down). Suppose you play n games, where n is large (in your case n = 1000, but it doesn't really matter).

Expected winnings are npR, and expected cost is n. ROI is (npR - n)/n = pR - 1.

If you want ROI to be 0.15, just solve pR - 1 = 0.15. If R is fixed at 2.00, solve 2p - 1 = 0.15.

Thanks for answering, but I'm not that good in maths, so could you please give me calculation on some example?
Let's say i have odds of 1,50 (so probability is 66,66%) so to receive odds which would provide us ROI of 15%
I'm trying to do it into excel formula, but don't understand all what you write...
so please if you could calculate it step by step... tnx
 
In Excel:
1. Enter R to cell A1
2. Enter ROI to cell B1
3. To cell C1, enter formula "= A1/(1 + B1)"
 

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