US Presidential Primaries, 2008

[BobG]

Maybe the reason people are less keen on predicting election outcomes than outcomes of football or soccer games is the lack of adequate marketing. First, I think we need some kind of catchy name. It seems that in competitions of this sort, the tested formula is to use the phrase 'Fantasy League'. I hereby dub this the PF 2008 Fantasy League for forecasting the number of delegates bound to various Presidential candidates in a state by state basis.

There! Now I can sit back and watch the masses throng the thread.

Ivan, if you wish to be included in the Fantasy League, you need to make 3 guesses for each party and number them as in post #22.

The PF 2008 FLFFTNODBTVPRIASBSB?

At least it's fun to say it five times quickly.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Okay

1). Obama
2). Clinton
3). Edwards

1). Chuckybee
2). Romney
3). Thompson

The weather is looking pretty good
http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin...?query=50301&hourly=1&yday=2&weekday=Thursday

which is good for Obama.

 

[Gokul43201]

The PF 2008 FLFFTNODBTVPRIASBSB?

Heavens, no! It's the PF 2008 FLFFTNODBTVPCIASBSB.

So, we're up to 6 League members now! Three are degenerate (or should I say "degenerates"?).

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Wow! Edwards takes an early lead, but only 2% of the polls are reporting.

 

[Coin]

I didn't see this linked, so: http://www.iowacaucusresults.com/

 

[Coin]

And I'm going to go ahead and predict:

1. Edwards
2. Obama
3. Clinton

1. Huckabee
2. Romney
3. McCain

 

[Ivan Seeking]

And I'm going to go ahead and predict:

1. Edwards
2. Obama
3. Clinton

1. Huckabee
2. Romney
3. McCain

19% of the precincts are already reporting. That is cutting it pretty close.

 

[Coin]

Also talkingpointsmemo has a live results counter for both parties... I don't know what their sources are but they now say with 2% reporting the Republican results are:

33% Huckabee
24% Romney
18% Thompson
12% McCain
11% Paul

 

[Ivan Seeking]

CNN is tracking a little closer. They have the dems at 31%, and the reps at 15%.
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#IA

Yay! NBC is giving Obama the lead based on exit polls. It also appears that there is a large turn-out for Obama's base. It also appears that he is pulling the female vote - likely bad bad news for Hillary.

I would love to see Obama win this.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

CNN is projecting Chuckybee the R winner.

 

[Coin]

Obama is pulling ahead! He's like a point and a half ahead. The other two are within 0.3% of each other.

If Obama can get ahead this early then he probably is going to win. Supposedly we should expect Obama to do better in the late-reporting districts than the early-reporting districts, because urban districts take longer to report results and Obama's support is stronger in those areas. Oh well, looks like I lose the predictions game :)

 

[Gokul43201]

45% reporting, Dems: O 33%, C 32%, E 32%

Huck (35%) has IA with a big lead over Romney (24%). Thompson will likely edge out McCain and Paul.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Obama takes a 2 point lead at 50% reporting.

This is better than a horse race!

 

[Coin]

A very slow horserace :)

 

[Ivan Seeking]

A very slow horserace :)

A very long track.

Edwards is tied with Hillary at 31%

Obama 35%

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Yahooooo! CNN predicts Obama wins!

 

[Astronuc]

Mike Huckabee, a Baptist preacher turned politician, rode a wave of support from evangelical Christians to victory Thursday night in the Iowa caucuses, first test in the race for the Republican presidential nomination. Hillary Rodham Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards struggled for supremacy in a close Democratic contest.

Apprently Huckabee has won the Republican contest.

 

[Astronuc]

Just to be different

Democrats
1. Clinton
2. Obama
3. Edwards

Republicans
1. Huckabee
2. Romney
3. Thompson

Well, I wish I had gone with Obama, Edwards, Clinton. That would be great.

Apparently -

Clinton, Obama and Edwards had all urged voters to consider them if their own candidate fell short. Rep. Dennis Kucinich of Ohio publicly urged his backers to line up with Obama on a second round, and two Democrats said aides to New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson did likewise as the caucuses unfolded. Those two spoke on condition of anonymity, citing private discussions.

I hope Obama keeps going strong.

Looks like I got the Reps right.

On the Republican undercard, former Sen. Fred Thompson was running third, while McCain, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani and Texas Rep. Ron Paul were bunched in a contest for fourth place.

Of the top 3 R's I prefer Thompson.

Are the any Iowans at PF?

 

[Astronuc]

McCain has pulled ahead of Thompson, but about 22% of precincts are left to report.

Edwards is still a few votes/delegates ahead of Clinton with 95% of precincts reporting for the Dems.

Somehow the Democratic caucuses are done differently than Republican caucuses, based on the way the numbers are reported.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

It seems that the other big story may be the turn-out for the democrats. The pundits thus far have been indicating that the numbers bode well for the Democrats, next November.

 

[Astronuc]

I really like to see things going a way that completely contradicts the pundits and prognosticators.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

I really like to see things going a way that completely contradicts the pundits and prognosticators.

I like that there appears to be a huge turn-out for change. This is great news! Exit polls cited earlier indicated that nearly half of the democrats caucusing had never voted before. Also, Edwards is pretty much dead, and I would expect a large percentage of his votes to go to Obama instead of Hillary or a Republican. Also, Ron Paul did pretty well, and I would bet that Obama will pull much of his base as well.

It looks like Hillary is officially third, with Edwards taking second place. Obama wins 38% to 30% to 29%.

 

[Gokul43201]

Zippity doo dah! Nice going Obama! Still waiting for more reporting out of the Republican caucus...third place looks close. Both the winners wound up with much larger leads than the polls were indicating. This should really help Obama in NH and Huckabee in FL. And if Huck takes FL, that might spell the end of Giuliani.

 

[mheslep]

The only Republican that will have any chance against Obama might be Giulani

Hah. Try instead: any of them.

 

[denverdoc]

Maybe the pundits are right about something--Obama at least offers the appearance of something other than politics as usual, and may galvanize support from the disenfranchized, the youth vote and folks like myself, who suffer from terminal cynicism and boredom with the repubocrats offered up time after time.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

According to David Gergen, the turn-out for the reps was about 120,000, with the dems getting about double that, and double what we saw for the dems four years ago - a very good sign!

Gergen, who is no lightweight by any measure, is calling Obama's victory speech "historic".

 

[BobG]

A huge turnout for Democrats with about 75% of Independents voting in the Democratic Caucus instead of the Republican.

That gives the impression that the Democratic nomination race is a lot more important than the Republican nomination, which spells bad news for McCain in New Hampshire where, once again, Independents can vote in either primary.

In fact, the combination of Independents going to the Democratic side and Ron Paul sunk McCain below Thompson.

Huge turnout for the under 30 crowd in the Democratic Caucus. Usually, if you depend on the young vote, they never come through.

New Hampshire:

Dem:
1. Obama
2. Clinton
3. Edwards

Rep:
1. Romney
2. McCain
3. Huckabee

 

[BobG]

Oops! I almost forgot about Wyoming's primary. Their Republican primary is tomorrow (Democratic primary is in March sometime):

Wyoming
Rep:

1. Romney
2. Thompson
3. Huckabee

This could be Ron Paul's best chance for a top 3 finish, or even a victory. Who knows? Reporters and pollsters forgot to visit the state (so much for benefits of moving up state primary dates).

I should get a bonus point for even knowing Wyoming had a primary in January.

 

[Astronuc]

Wyoming
REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL:
Caucuses
January 5

DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL:
Caucuses
March 8

First Primaries/Caucuses
January 3: Iowa caucuses
January 5: Wyoming caucuses - R
January 8: New Hampshire primary
January 15: Michigan primary
January 19: Nevada caucuses - R
South Carolina primary - D
January 26: South Carolina primary
January 29: Florida primary
February 1: Maine caucuses - R


Super Tuesday: February 5 - D or R indicates only party on that date
Alabama primary
Alaska caucuses - D
Am. Samoa caucuses - D
Arizona primary
Arkansas primary
California primary
Colorado caucuses
Connecticut primary
Delaware primary
Georgia primary
Idaho caucuses - D
Illinois primary
Kansas caucuses - D
Massachussetts primary
Minnesota caucuses
Missouri primary
Montana caucuses - R
New Jersey primary
New Mexico primary - D
New York primary
North Dakota caucuses
Oklahoma primary
Tennessee primary
Utah primary
W. Virginia convention - R

 

[EnumaElish]

The displayed poll percentages are slightly biased because Cyrus inadvertently voted for everyone (which apparently has not been undone).

 

[BobG]

The displayed poll percentages are slightly biased because Cyrus inadvertently voted for everyone (which apparently has not been undone).

That's okay. He'll vote again January 29. And probably vote exactly opposite what he voted the first time. It'll all even out.

 

[Gokul43201]

Oops! I almost forgot about Wyoming's primary.

Not I! I've using this for the schedule: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_primaries

The current dates up to and including Super Tuesday are now:[2]

* January 3—Iowa Caucus
* January 5—Republican Wyoming caucus
* January 8—New Hampshire Primary
* January 15—Michigan Primary (allowed on appeal[3])
* January 19—Nevada Caucus / Republican South Carolina Primary
* January 26—Democratic South Carolina Primary
* January 29—Florida Primary
* February 2―Maine caucus
* February 5―Super Duper Tuesday: Primaries/caucuses for both parties in 19 states, plus three Democratic-only caucuses and one Republican-only primary

We now accept predictions for Wyoming (Rep, only)

Wyoming (Republican Primary)
1.
2.
3.

If you didn't make predictions for Iowa, it's not too late to join (not until Super Tuesday...it won't be).

Results and scores coming up...

 

[Gokul43201]

Iowa Results:

Dem:
1. Obama
2. Edwards
3. Clinton

Rep:
1. Huckabee
2. Romney
3. Thompson

Points Table:

Astronuc       9       
BobG           8
Coin           7
Evo            9   
Gokul          8
Ivan           10
Maxwell        8

I've got half a mind to dock Ivan a couple points for being a whiner!

Did I get everyone's scores right? If I screwed up somewhere, feel free to post a revision.

 

[Gokul43201]

Wyoming is a black box. I don't think there's been any statewide opinion polls.

Wyoming:
1. Romney
2. Huckabee
3. Thompson

I wouldn't be overly surprised if Hunter ends up with over 5% or if Paul squeaks into second or third spot.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

I've got half a mind to dock Ivan a couple points for being a whiner!

What?! I thought I would get extra credit for predicting that Obama would beat the poll numbers.