US Presidential Primaries, 2008

[Ivan Seeking]

I didn't major in math. I majored in miracles!

I would love to see Huck take the nomination.

 

[Gokul43201]

Gokul, since I missed a primary, are we going to average by the number of primaries we predict in?

The original plan was a "ya snooze, you lose" policy (but I think I'll leave this unresolved until later...in case I feel like snoozing). The drawback of averaging over only the races one participates in permits the system to be gamed by participating only in the easy-to-call races.

Is the prize still 1 million Italian Lire?

A million Italian lire is still like $800! I was thinking maybe a million Turkish lire, which I thought would be less than a buck. Turns out last year the Turks redefined their lira so that 1 new lira = 1 million old lire. Spoilsports!

 

[Astronuc]

Obama wins Neb., Wash. state; Huckabee wins Kansas

WASHINGTON (AP/Yahoo) - Sen. Barack Obama won caucuses in Nebraska and Washington state and battled Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton in the Louisiana primary Saturday night in a bid to chip away at her slender delegate lead in their historic race for the Democratic presidential nomination.

Obama was winning nearly 70 percent support in Nebraska, compared with 31 percent for Clinton, in caucuses with 24 delegates at stake.

He also had 67 percent support in Washington state caucuses, compared with 32 percent for Clinton with returns tallied from about one-half of the state's precincts. There were 78 delegates at stake, the largest single prize of the night.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080210/ap_on_el_pr/campaign_rdp

 

[lisab]

Today I caucused for Obama. We had 29 people show up to our precinct table. The room, a middle school cafeteria, was packed. My precinct's final vote: Obama, 16; Clinton, 13. Only one person at the table had ever been to a caucus before!

About half the people there were independents or former Republicans. They all went for Obama.

CNN just projected Obama to win Louisiana!

 

[Astronuc]

In Louisiana with exit poll results from CNN at midnight.

Obama    217,291  57%  23
Clinton  134,765  36%  15

Pretty decisive wins by Obama today - so it seems. And he pulls closer to Clinton in number of delegates.

Huckabee   67,685 44% 
McCain    65,066  42% 
Romney     9,844  6% 
Paul       8,237  5%

According AP/Yahoo - http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080210/ap_on_el_pr/campaign_rdp
Obama sweeps 3 states, Huckabee takes 2

WASHINGTON - Sen. Barack Obama swept the Louisiana primary and caucuses in Nebraska and Washington state Saturday night, slicing into Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's slender delegate lead in their historic race for the Democratic presidential nomination.

The Illinois senator also won caucuses in the Virgin Islands, completing his best night of the campaign.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Maine = Obama

 

[Gokul43201]

Maine = Obama

ME too!

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Boy, and I thought I was cutting it close!

 

[Gokul43201]

At least I stuck in a pun!

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Which brings up a good point: What is the official cut-off?

I voted before any returns had come in. Were they already getting some I would have assumed it was too late.

 

[turbo]

Don't know what we've got yet, Ivan. There has been some slippery weather today (snow) that may have suppressed the participation of older folks, which would favor Obama. Unfortunately, our access to coverage is through local TV stations that are broadcasting basketball and golf - not caucus results. The Dems have only got 24 delegates, but Clinton has been predicting a win here, and a loss (especially a convincing one like in Washington state) would give Obama some more momentum. Some national papers have been saying that women in Maine will hand the delegates to Clinton, but my wife talks politics at work with her co-workers, and her (admittedly rough) poll tells her that working Maine women think that Clinton is too cold, calculating, and unable to change Washington, and that they'll favor Obama. We'll see. Local news is on in 15 minutes and if the stations have done any exit polling, I'll drop in and let you know their projections.

 

[turbo]

Snow didn't hinder the turnout. It's heavy, and as of now, Obama has Maine 57%-42%. More news later as it firms up.

Also, Clinton's campaign manager has just resigned.

 

[Astronuc]

Which brings up a good point: What is the official cut-off?

I voted before any returns had come in. Were they already getting some I would have assumed it was too late.

I think cutoff would be just before polls/caucuses close.

At the time you posted, Ivan, I had not seen any results.


As of 1800 (6:00 pm), only 2261 votes had been counted, but Obama 1,305 vs Clinton 956 with 59% precincts reporting.

 

[Astronuc]

Snow didn't hinder the turnout. It's heavy, and as of now, Obama has Maine 57%-42%. More news later as it firms up.

Also, Clinton's campaign manager has just resigned.

Or was replaced after the poor showing on Saturday.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Obama beats Clinton...

...for a Grammy.
http://weblogs.baltimoresun.com/news/politics/blog/2008/02/obama_beats_a_clinton_for_a_gr.html

 

[turbo]

Or was replaced after the poor showing on Saturday.

Well, yes, her resignation was probably not voluntary, but face-saving.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

CNN just projected Obama the winner in Maine.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

$100 of this was my contribution!

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23050238/

The article says that "the Clinton campaign asked Obama to debate once a week, but he demurred."

Front-runners rarely ask for debates...they've got too much to lose.

Our second donation.

I love the internet.

Thank you for your generous donation of $100.00.

You've taken ownership of this campaign. But there are still hundreds of thousands of supporters who haven't yet taken that important step.

It's going to take more than just you and the others who have generously donated so far to build this national campaign and transform our political process.

It's going to take a movement.

...

http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/semr?source=SEM-register-google-obama-search-national

Thank you again for your donation.

Obama for America

 

[lisab]

CNN just projected Obama the winner in Maine.

Wow, and not by a little bit - Obama got 57%, Clinton got 42%, with 70% of precincts reporting.

A weekend of big wins...! Go, go, Obama!

I'm stoked!

 

[turbo]

Wow, and not by a little bit - Obama got 57%, Clinton got 42%, with 70% of precincts reporting.

A weekend of big wins...! Go, go, Obama!

I'm stoked!

What is particularly nice about this win is that Clinton predicted a win in Maine, and she was backed up by some large regional newspapers. Unfortunately for her (and despite the bad weather) voter turnout broke all records, and when people have to discuss the candidates in caucus and decide how to assign their delegates (as opposed to stepping into a primary voting booth and privately marking a ballot) Obama wins.

As I noted before, her campaign strategy involved bothering everybody with auto-dialed "Vote for Hillary" recordings out of a phone bank in Arlington county, VA, and we got at least 2-3 of those a day in the days leading up to the caucus. If anybody was on the fence about which candidate to support, those repeated intrusions probably pushed them into the Obama camp. Keep making the stupid mistakes, Clinton! At least you'll still be the senator from NY.

 

[BobG]

For Feb 12:

Virginia:
Dem = Obama
Rep = McCain

Maryland:
Dem = Obama
Rep = McCain

DC:
Dem = Obama
Rep = McCain

 

[Gokul43201]

Virginia
Dem=Obama
Rep=McCain

Maryland
Dem=Obama
Rep=McCain

DC
Dem=Obama
Rep=McCain

 

[Cyrus]

Obama came to my school today. I waited in the cold in line for an hour, but we all got in. I clapped. It was O.K.

Hes not a very good orator, but he did give it the old college try.

Obama +1, tomorrow.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Obama came to my school today. I waited in the cold in line for an hour, but we all got in. I clapped. It was O.K.

Hes not a very good orator, but he did give it the old college try.

Obama +1, tomorrow.

Heh, a number of his speeches are nearly legendary! He is probably very tired.

 

[Cyrus]

I really don't think he talks well. There are a lot of people from the 60s that would clean his clock in public speaking.

For example:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ENHP89mLWOY&feature=related

is muchhh better than obama on his best day.

Obama says too many, uhhhhhhhhs, and starts acting like a preacher.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

I thought you only saw him once. On his best days he brings down the house. Of course much of that results from what he says and not just how he says it.

 

[Cyrus]

Id like to see a youtube of him 'bringing down the house'. Hes just not that good a speaker.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Id like to see a youtube of him 'bringing down the house'. Hes just not that good a speaker.

You must live in a cave. This has been the talk of Washington since he blew away everyone at the 2004 Democratic Convention. And for the last six months his ability enthrall crowds has been a nearly daily event on the news.

So you weren't impressed. Point made.

Of course he tends to attract intellectuals...

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Virginia
Dem=Obama
Rep=McCain

Maryland
Dem=Obama
Rep=McCain

D.C.
Dem=Obama
Rep=McCain

 

[Astronuc]

Obama is on a roll, Clinton will be second place.

Virginia
Dem=Obama
Rep=McCain

Maryland
Dem=Obama
Rep=McCain

D.C.
Dem=Obama
Rep=McCain

With Romney out, McCain would seem to the front runner. It will be interesting to see where Huckabee comes in.

 

[Astronuc]

Obama came to my school today. I waited in the cold in line for an hour, but we all got in. I clapped. It was O.K.

Hes not a very good orator, but he did give it the old college try.

Obama +1, tomorrow.

Could be that he is tired as Ivan mentioned, or perhaps he doesn't extemporize very well.

 

[turbo]

I wonder if Huckabee is staying in just to establish himself as the presumptive VP? He has no real chance against McCain outside of districts that are heavily evangelical-conservative. McCain has infuriated the extreme right-wing of the GOP with his stance on many issues, so a lot of Huckabee's support to this point may have come from the "anybody but McCain" ranks of the GOP. If this is true, McCain should choose a different running-mate because choosing Huckabee would scare lots of independents and add little Republican support. Despite what Limbaugh and Coulter say, they will hold their noses and vote for McCain to keep the White House in Republican control. We have a Congress so fearful and weak that it cannot bring itself to challenge this Imperial Presidency, and if McCain is elected, he may well elect to continue the secrecy, deception, and disregard of the Constitution practiced by the current administration.

Pelosi and Reid are gutless and are seemingly incapable of challenging Bush/Cheney. We might be better-served by a Parlimentary form of government with short terms for all "ministers" and the real possibility of no-confidence votes to remove the prime minister. [/rant]

 

[Gokul43201]

Obama is definitely showing signs of tiredness. I watched some video of a speech he gave a couple days ago (on CNN), and the difference is clearly noticeable.

 

[BobG]

I wonder if Huckabee is staying in just to establish himself as the presumptive VP? He has no real chance against McCain outside of districts that are heavily evangelical-conservative. McCain has infuriated the extreme right-wing of the GOP with his stance on many issues, so a lot of Huckabee's support to this point may have come from the "anybody but McCain" ranks of the GOP. If this is true, McCain should choose a different running-mate because choosing Huckabee would scare lots of independents and add little Republican support. Despite what Limbaugh and Coulter say, they will hold their noses and vote for McCain to keep the White House in Republican control.

Huckabee is running against Romney. The idea is to pick up enough wins, headlines, and delegates that Huckabee becomes the true runner-up and Romney becomes just another body. It makes a difference for 2012 or 2016.

Both Romney and Huckabee have exaggerated their 'far right social credentials' at least a little bit in this campaign (Romney a lot more than Huckabee). When it comes to performance, Romney was a good governor, but Huckabee was better. You can point to some compromises both had to make in order to govern effectively if you want trash their principles as fiscal conservatives, but both were good governors over all. Both could have had a lot more general appeal if they'd emphasized that part of themselves instead of pandering to the social right. Of course, with McCain and Giuliani running, the social right was the only group they had a chance to appeal to. They ran on McCain's and Giuliani's weaknesses instead of their own strength. If they go against each other in 2012 or 2016, I'd expect a completely different campaign from both of them.

 

[Cyrus]

Could be that he is tired as Ivan mentioned, or perhaps he doesn't extemporize very well.

Even on his best days, I don't like the style in which he speaks. I perfer someone who uses precise words and is very clear and eloquent. I don't think does any of that.

In fact, I think all the candidates suck at public speaking.