vacuum tubes to semiconductors to ... ?

wukunlin

This is something that has popped into my head recently.

afaik, vacuum tubes were once the most common device used for switching, and amplifying.
Then transistors and other semiconductor devices come along and almost wiped out vacuum tubes (not totally i think)

what I want to ask is:

is there any signs of replacements for semiconductors in the near future? I mean the size of transistors in cpu's seems to be approaching theoretical limit (tunnelling start to be significant for example), and I don't see quantum computing to be widespread (I think i also read somewhere on this forum that quantum computer's have very specific uses

where would be a good place (preferably free :P ) to find reliable information on topics like this?

es1

You might want to start here. Especially Table B on page 4.

INTERNATIONAL TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP FOR SEMICONDUCTORS: Exec Summary
http://www.itrs.net/Links/2009ITRS/2...09_ExecSum.pdf

Also, how would you define near term (10 years?) and replacement (capturing X% of the market? which market?).