Expected Value of a Maximum

In summary, the expected value of a maximum is a statistical concept used to estimate the average value of the highest possible outcome in a set of data. It is calculated by multiplying the probability of each outcome by its corresponding value and summing these products. This concept is important in decision-making and has various real-world applications in fields such as finance and economics. It differs from the mean by taking into account the highest possible outcome rather than just the average.
  • #1
Euge
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If X and Y are independent standard Gaussian variables, find the expected value of the maximum of X and Y.

Note: This problem is due to @Office_Shredder.
 
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  • #2
Euge said:
If X and Y are independent standard Gaussian variables, find the expected value of the maximum of X and Y.

Note: This problem is due to @Office_Shredder.
What does the word standard mean here? Mean 0 and standard deviation of 1?
 
  • #3
jbergman said:
What does the word standard mean here? Mean 0 and standard deviation of 1?
Yes.
 
  • #4
jbergman said:
What does the word standard mean here? Mean 0 and standard deviation of 1?
What do you mean by the maximum of X and Y? The sum, the product, independent of each other?
 
  • #5
bob012345 said:
What do you mean by the maximum of X and Y? The sum, the product, independent of each other?
##\mathbf{E}(\max(X,Y))##
 
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  • #6
Will take a stab

The definite integral for the expectation of a Gaussian is
##-exp(-x^2/2)/sqrt(2 π)##

For 2 draws of a standard normal, 50% of the outcomes will have a positive and negative number, the expectation in this case is
##1/sqrt(2 π)## = 0.40
The integral from 0 to inf

The next case has (x,y) both positive
Using above, the expectation for the minimum of the two positive draws
is
##1/sqrt(2 π)##, then the expectation of the max is the integral from
##1/sqrt(2 π)## to inf, which is
##exp(-0.4^2)/sqrt(2π)## = 2.13

For x,y both negative, the max is the integral from
##-1/sqrt(2 π)## to zero, which is
##-1/sqrt(2 π) +exp(-1/4π)/sqrt(2π)## =-0.22

So .5(0.40)+.25(2.13) + .25*(-0.22) = 0.68
 
  • #7
That's not the right number. When they have opposite signs I think you have the right answer, but when they're the same sign I think you're doing something wrong. I don't know how you get the expected value of the smaller one, and I'm skeptical you can compute the expected value of the larger one by just integrating from e.v. of smaller one to infinity (maybe that works but it's not obvious to me)
 
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  • #8
I put Z = max(X,Y) then considered P(Z < z) = P(X < z)P(Y < z), which is\begin{align*}
P(Z<z) = \frac{1}{2\pi} \left( \int_{-\infty}^{z} e^{-\frac{1}{2} x^2} dx \right)^2
\end{align*}differentiating this gives the distribution of Z\begin{align*}
f(z) = \frac{1}{\pi} e^{-\frac{1}{2}z^2} \int_{-\infty}^z e^{-\frac{1}{2}x^2} dx
\end{align*}then the expectation of Z would be\begin{align*}
E(Z) = \int_{-\infty}^{\infty} zf(z) dz &= \frac{1}{\pi} \int_{-\infty}^{\infty} ze^{-\frac{1}{2}z^2} \left( \int_{-\infty}^z e^{-\frac{1}{2}x^2} dx \right) dz \\
&= \frac{1}{\pi} \left[ -e^{-\frac{1}{2} z^2} \int_{-\infty}^z e^{-\frac{1}{2}x^2} dx \right]_{-\infty}^{\infty} + \frac{1}{\pi} \int_{-\infty}^{\infty} e^{-z^2} dz \\
&= 0 + \frac{1}{\sqrt{\pi}}
\end{align*}
 
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  • #9
ergospherical said:
I put Z = max(X,Y) then considered P(Z < z) = P(X < z)P(Y < z), which is\begin{align*}
P(Z<z) = \frac{1}{2\pi} \left( \int_{-\infty}^{z} e^{-\frac{1}{2} x^2} dx \right)^2
\end{align*}differentiating this gives the distribution of Z\begin{align*}
f(z) = \frac{1}{\pi} e^{-\frac{1}{2}z^2} \int_{-\infty}^z e^{-\frac{1}{2}x^2} dx
\end{align*}then the expectation of Z would be\begin{align*}
E(Z) = \int_{-\infty}^{\infty} zf(z) dz &= \frac{1}{\pi} \int_{-\infty}^{\infty} ze^{-\frac{1}{2}z^2} \left( \int_{-\infty}^z e^{-\frac{1}{2}x^2} dx \right) dz \\
&= \frac{1}{\pi} \left[ -e^{-\frac{1}{2} z^2} \int_{-\infty}^z e^{-\frac{1}{2}x^2} dx \right]_{-\infty}^{\infty} + \frac{1}{\pi} \int_{-\infty}^{\infty} e^{-z^2} dz \\
&= 0 + \frac{1}{\sqrt{\pi}}
\end{align*}
I think that's excellent, but you'll get zero marks from @Office_Shredder for leaving that ##0## in the answer. It shows you are just regurgitating symbols back at him!
 
  • #11
Office_Shredder said:
Nice work @ergospherical. I actually computed this via a pretty different looking starting integral if anyone else is still poking around at other solutions.
I wonder what? This:
ergospherical said:
I put Z = max(X,Y) then considered P(Z < z) = P(X < z)P(Y < z), which is \begin{align*}
P(Z<z) = \frac{1}{2\pi} \left( \int_{-\infty}^{z} e^{-\frac{1}{2} x^2} dx \right)^2
\end{align*}
is the only way I can see?
 
  • #12
pbuk said:
I wonder what? This:

is the only way I can see?

You can write the expected value as a two dimensional integral by definition, and then solve from there.
 
  • #13
Office_Shredder said:
You can write the expected value as a two dimensional integral by definition, and then solve from there.
Isn't that what @ergospherical has done?
 
  • #14
pbuk said:
Isn't that what @ergospherical has done?
I don't see any integrals over 2 dimensional space there.
 
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  • #15
pbuk said:
Isn't that what @ergospherical has done?
An alternative is to note that it's equally likely that the first variable, ##x##, is the maximum, so we have:
$$E(max(X, Y)) = E(X: X = max(X,Y)) = \frac 1 {2\pi}\int_{-\infty}^{\infty} xe^{-\frac 1 2 x^2} \int_{-\infty}^{x} e^{-\frac 1 2 y^2}\ dy \ dx$$$$= \frac 1 {2\pi} \int_0^{\infty}\int_{-\frac 3 4 \pi}^{\frac \pi 4} r^2e^{-\frac 1 2 r^2} \cos \theta \ d\theta \ dr = \frac 1 {\sqrt 2 \pi}\int_0^{\infty} r^2e^{-\frac 1 2 r^2} \ dr$$$$=\frac 1 {\sqrt 2 \pi}\sqrt{2\pi} = \frac 1 {\sqrt \pi}$$
 

What is the "Expected Value of a Maximum"?

The Expected Value of a Maximum is a statistical concept that calculates the average value of the highest outcome from a set of possible outcomes.

How is the Expected Value of a Maximum calculated?

The Expected Value of a Maximum is calculated by multiplying each possible outcome by its respective probability, and then summing all of these values together.

What is the significance of the Expected Value of a Maximum?

The Expected Value of a Maximum is used to make decisions in situations where there are multiple possible outcomes with varying probabilities. It helps to determine the most likely or favorable outcome.

Can the Expected Value of a Maximum be negative?

Yes, the Expected Value of a Maximum can be negative. This occurs when the possible outcomes have negative values and/or the probabilities are low for the higher outcomes.

What are some real-world applications of the Expected Value of a Maximum?

The Expected Value of a Maximum is commonly used in insurance and finance to assess risk and make decisions based on potential outcomes. It is also used in game theory and decision-making processes in business and economics.

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