Probability paradox: P(X=x)=1/n >1

In summary, the conversation discusses the concept of probability density and how it differs from probability. It is explained that the probability density function can be arbitrarily large, but the integral of the function must be no greater than 1. This leads to a paradox in the given scenario, but it is resolved by understanding the difference between probability density and probability.
  • #1
Trollfaz
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I have a random variable X in range(0,n) where n<1, with a uniform distribution
Then the probability of sample space S=n x P(X=x) x<=n which must be 1
Manipulating the equation P(X=x)=1/n >1
Then this violates the fundamental law of probability which says that any probability must be at most 1.
How do we resolve this paradox here
 
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  • #2
Are you assuming that the maximum value a probability density function may take is ##1##?

That's certainly not the case.
 
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  • #3
Trollfaz said:
Then this violates the fundamental law of probability which says that any probability must be at most 1.
You are confusing a probability density with a probability. The function you are describing is the probability density function and it can be arbitrarily large. The integral of a probability density is a probability. So only its integral must be no greater than 1, which is the case.
 
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  • #4
Just to say it explicitly, P(X=x) is always zero. ##P(|X-x|<\epsilon)\approx 2\epsilon f(x)## is the right interpretation of the density function
 
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  • #5
Trollfaz said:
I have a random variable X in range(0,n) where n<1, with a uniform distribution

If you had a uniform rod of mass 1 kg and length 1/2 meter, the density of the rod would be 2 kg per meter, even though the rod only has mass 1 kg. As the others pointed out, probability density is not the the same concept as probability.
 
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  • #6
An off-topic discussion has been deleted, and since the OP's question has been answered, this thread is now closed. Thanks folks.
 
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1. What does the statement "Probability paradox: P(X=x)=1/n >1" imply?

The statement suggests a paradox where the probability of a random variable X being equal to a specific value x is greater than 1, expressed as P(X=x) = 1/n > 1. This is paradoxical because, by definition, probabilities must be between 0 and 1. A probability greater than 1 is not possible under the standard axioms of probability theory.

2. How can the probability P(X=x) exceed 1?

Under normal circumstances, the probability P(X=x) cannot exceed 1. If such a situation is proposed, it typically indicates a misunderstanding or misuse of probability concepts. Probabilities greater than 1 are not valid, and any mathematical model suggesting this would be considered flawed or based on incorrect assumptions.

3. What might cause someone to mistakenly believe that P(X=x) could be greater than 1?

Mistakes leading to the belief that P(X=x) could be greater than 1 might include calculation errors, misinterpretation of probability laws, or confusion between different statistical measures such as odds versus probabilities. Another common error could be the incorrect application of probability formulas, such as misunderstanding the conditions or definitions used in a particular probability distribution or scenario.

4. What are the correct conditions under which P(X=x) = 1/n is formulated?

The condition P(X=x) = 1/n is correctly formulated when dealing with a discrete uniform distribution where there are n equally likely outcomes, and X can take one of these n values. In such scenarios, each outcome has an equal probability of occurring, and since the probabilities must sum to 1, each outcome has a probability of 1/n. The statement holds true and is valid only if n is a finite positive integer greater than or equal to 1.

5. How can we rectify or avoid errors leading to the belief that P(X=x) > 1?

To avoid or rectify errors leading to the belief that P(X=x) > 1, it is crucial to ensure a thorough understanding and correct application of probability principles. This includes double-checking calculations, revisiting the definitions and assumptions underlying the probability models being used, and seeking peer review or additional educational resources if concepts are unclear. Using rigorous mathematical reasoning and adhering to the foundational axioms of probability will prevent such errors.

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