Recent content by hodor

ok, thanks. I had assumed that since P(B=murderer,M=murderer) had changed, P(K|B=murderer,M=murderer) would change since P(K|B=murderer,M=murderer) = P(K,B=murderer,M=Murderer)/P(B=murderer,M=murderer), and similarly for the other conditionals.

Ok, I had thought since those probabilities had changed, the P(k|B,M) probabilities would also have to change, and without ndependence I wouldn't be able to recalculate. It seems I can set P(K|B=murderer,M=murderer)=0 and reuse the others unchanged, but that still makes me a bit uncomfortable?

Hi, I've run into a snag trying to read a textbook problem. Here is the original example, it's pretty straightforward. The problem I have is when I get to the exercise and it asks me to place a restriction on this example. This restriction seems to break the independence of two variables...

Just an attempt to shorthand what was in the image since I'm on my phone. That post should just be ignored at this point.

Ok, I found what I was looking for. It's an application of the law of total probability for conditional probabilities:

Well I understand the bolded statement. I don't know why it doesn't have anything to do with the fact that I'm dealing with a conditional probability, since it's P( T = tr | A = tr ). In my mind I'm looking for an algebraic substitution or something that I know that allows me to manipulate...

I'm just going to post a screenshot of the Example (free online textbook). I'm having a tough time making the leap to the first sum - what allows me to rewrite P(T|A) as the sum of the product of those two conditional probabilities? Thanks