How about this paper - it seems to me to better match the current situation, although apologies in advance if I have missed something obvious. They suggest that based on a simulation similar to three mile island, cycling criticality events are quite possible in a damaged fuel debris bed, although they conclude that they should be self-regulating and not large enough to destroy the containment (average 5-7GJ):
"Recriticality Energetic of a Hypothetical Water Reflood Accident in a Damaged Light Water Reactor"
http://www.osti.gov/bridge/purl.cover.jsp?purl=/16911-VGVXER/webviewable/
As far as the boration is concerned, if the water is flowing through the primary containment like a sieve at many tons per hour, I can not see how sporadically injecting large amounts of boron would maintain any kind of stable boration - I think the media people have misread the boron injections.
During the last injection of boron, the TEPCO daily update hinted that their motivation was actually that by rapidly increasing the injection rate they might raise the level of the water in the reactor and reflood a damaged section of the core and inadvertently increase reactivity:
http://www.tepco.co.jp/en/press/corp-com/release/12020805-e.html
"In order to avoid the increasing
possibility of re-criticality to occur, which might be brought up by
sudden cold water injection, resulting in the rise of water density
inside the reactor, we injected boric acid into the reactor as a safety
countermeasures against the re-criticality from 0:19 am to 3:20 am on
February 7, which was before increasing the amount of injection water,
and changed the amount of the core spray system injection water from 3.7
m3/h to 6.7m3/h at 4:24 am (the amount of the continuing feed water
system injection is 6.8m3/h)."
So rather than temp going up -> better add boron, it seems like temp going up -> better increase water injection -> better borate reflood water in case more reactive fuel is flooded. Looking at it that way, the boron injections suddenly seem less knee-jerk.