Borg said:
...I think that Amazon would follow though with drone delivery within a few years if the FAA wasn't in the way. Bezos says he's going to follow through and maybe he really intends to...Maybe the regulation hurtles will eventually be too great and Bezos will have to cut his losses. If he doesn't deliver on his promise, will anyone go back to see why he didn't (i.e. regulation difficulties vs. no itention to follow through)?...
My team uses a small drone for documentary film production -- they are very effective and safe if used properly. They are very quiet and non-obtrusive, especially relative to a big diesel delivery van.
Bezos said any delivery by drones is years in the future. However he's smart enough to recognize the potential and start working on it now.
The technical issues are definitely solvable for some usage profiles. They would use redundant differential (e.g ground-augmented) GPS which is accurate to a few inches. They'd also have fall-back inertial guidance. They'd also need proximity sensing based on image recognition or other sensor methods to check for obstructions. All that is doable with current technology, and in five years time it will be cheaper and more available.
They would likely only be used in specific areas which are surveyed and safe from a flight path standpoint. Trucks would not suddenly be replaced by swarms of drones -- it would be a very gradual "learn as you go" phased implementation, starting in highly controlled conditions.
Some of the doubts I've seen are far more ill-conceived than the Amazon drone concept itself. E.g,:
"What if somebody watched the drone delivery, then stole the package?" What if they watched the truck then stole the package?
"What if they get shot down?" These would be used in fairly high density residential areas. If people start shooting guns in their back yards at drones (or anything else), they'll quickly be educated that's not a good idea.
"What if they fall on someone?" That's not outlandish since Bezos himself voiced it. One answer is redundancy, but of course accidents will happen -- just like they do with delivery trucks. These are small, lightweight drones and the ratio of package mass to surface area implies it might not be that damaging.
"How will the FAA air traffic control system cope?" They would likely not be under FAA control, but fly below controlled airspace.
"What if U.S. regulations don't allow it?" Amazon is a global retailer and would likely use drones in regions with less burdensome regulations. This already happens with film production. Currently there is no legal way to fly a commercial filming drone within the U.S. -- nobody can do it, not even Steven Spielberg. They simply take their business overseas and film it there.
"What if the drone spies on me?" Every phone call you make, nearly every email you send and every website you visit is already intercepted, analyzed and data mined by government agencies. People in general are not revolting over that, they somehow just accept it. The surveillance capability of a little battery-powered drone is miniscule relative to what is already happening.
