Antiquated Switchgear: Arc Flash Hazards

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The discussion focuses on the need to evaluate aging low and medium voltage switchgear in a plant, particularly regarding their potential for arc flash hazards. Users are seeking reliable sources to determine if older switchgear is more prone to arc flashes, as existing standards like NFPA 70E primarily address compliance rather than root causes. The IEEE standards, particularly IEEE 1584-2002, are referenced for calculation guidance, although many engineers rely on software for these assessments rather than manual calculations. The conversation highlights the importance of recalculating system configurations when significant changes occur, such as adding motors or transformers. Overall, the need for updated information on arc flash risks associated with older equipment is emphasized.
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I am reviewing the LV and MV switchgear and their protection path within our plant. A significant number of critical breakers and enclosures are 20-30 years old and are in need of replacement. In addition to considering the operational advantages of upgrading the gear, I am trying to find information related to Arc Flash hazards and whether older gear has a higher chance of producing an arc flash.

I have searched the NFPA 70E for information and cannot find anything related to my question; most of the standards are related to compliance, not analyzing root causes for the flashes themselves. Does anyone know of a reliable source that discusses whether older gear is more susceptible to arc flashes, or if there is no significant risk at all?
 
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The actual guide for calculations are taken from the IEEE standards: https://standards.ieee.org/findstds/standard/1584-2002.html is one source. The NEC 70E document is a safety document that helps or pertains to electricians or trained personal to work with the proper safety wear or simply power down the equipment if the Arc Flash values are too high.

Sadly most Electrical Engineers do not reference or learn how to apply this document to actually calculate these values by hand (many contracts or specifications don't allow this either, but insist on a software model and calculation), but use software and model these calculations based upon current plant conditions and configurations. Adding a large motor or changing out a service transformer necessitates a complete recalculation of the whole system.
 
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