Nereid said:
To be sure Zapper, new stuff is always a struggle, and something as radical as QM certainly had its challenges! My rule of thumb is it takes at least a decade for something new to get sufficient experimental and theoretical oomph (a point I keep emphasising re dark energy (and other areas in astrophysics and cosmology); to my taste far too many people are rushing off to their PR departments with marketing fluff that glosses over the decade or more of work that has to be done yet before anything halfway decent can be established).
My rule of thumb has been that theory needs a longer "gestation" period than experimental observation. It takes a theory at LEAST 10 years (on par with your decade) of continuous testing and prodding for it to be widely accepted to be valid. This of course, assumes that the theory makes testable predictions, which totally disqualifies String, Superstring, M-Theory. Experimental observations, on the other hand, only require that another independent group reporting a consistent observation. Thus, monumentous discovery such as the high-Tc superconductor, only required a 1-year period between discovery and complete chaos! :)
And I totally agree with you about people rushing to publicize their work, even way before those things appear in a peer-review journal. One would think we would all have learned a lesson from the Fleishmann-Pons debacle.
QM had lots of experimental validation, fairly quickly (measured on timescales of decades), and from many different directions; to be sure many aspects had to wait many decades for experiments to shed light on the theory (so to speak) - e.g. Aspect.
Can we agree that in real science Patrick's summary is perhaps just a tad too high level?
I think both situations are valid, and there are enough examples in each. I can also bring in other types of situations where there are only qualitative, not quantitative, agreements in the beginning. So the path towards acceptance can be many (much like all the possible paths in a Feyman path integral). In the end, a large collection of experimental results are the only means to filter out what theoretical description is valid.
This last point is what I think a lot of people outside of physics do not fully appreciate. A single theory does not make a single, or even a small number of predictions. The BCS theory of superconductivity, for example, make a whole slew of predictions/consequences, ranging from the energy gap in the density of states (tested via tunneling experiments), superfluid density (from optical conductivity experiments), Meissner effect (via magnetic susceptibility measurement), etc, etc... A good theory must be consistent with A LOT of results from various kinds of experiments. This is because physics is inter-related - it isn't just a set of disjointed, unconnected collection of information. You can't pull something out in one corner and not expect something else in a totally different area to be affected. So when people claim to have some wild "theory" of something, they seem to forget about a slew of experimental observations that they need to be consistent with.
With this in mind, there is one impressive fact that can never be overemphasized. Considering the unbelievably huge area of application and testability of QM, ranging from particle physics to atomic/nuclear physics, to the very material we all use everyday, there hasn't been even ONE experimental evidence that is inconsistent with QM! ZILCH! I mean, think about it! If this isn't astounding to you, then you haven't learned enough physics. It is not without any weight that during the centenial celebration of QM in 1999, physicists almost unanimously declared that QM is the most successful physical theory so far in the history of human civilization.
Zz.