It was about 600 miles from Tokyo. Vladivostok, Russia, is about 900 miles. However, we are using data from the entire Japanese area. Some of the quakes listed were centered 300 or 400 miles out at sea. One was near the location of the present quake. Also, the fact that Japan proper is so active, to me further supports the use of this data for comparison.Originally posted by zoobyshoe
If you go to the little map in the story I linked to you can see that Hokkaido is a separate Island from Japan, and it is very far away from Tokyo, where he predicted the >7 quake. The epicenter is about as far from Tokyo as Vladivostok, Russia, and also as far away from Tokyo as parts of Korea. It is a totally different fault.
Think of it this way: if someone predicted a >7 quake for San Fransisco within a week, but it only got hit with a 5.5, and then a week later Portland got three, one of which was an 8, could we properly say the prediction was a hit? In my mind he was somewhere in a grey area between hit and miss which means, hopefully, that there is something to his methods that could be sharpened up to give more accurate results. He was quite certain Tokyo was in for it.
Knowing for certain that a specific city will be hit by a specific magnitude is the whole goal of trying to predict quakes.
Finally, considering the magnitude, this may have been a subduction zone quake. In this situation, local faults may be of little significance. I don't know if a subduction zone quake is possible in this location. I will look.
Edit. It seems that one internet map used was not very accurate. The distances indicated are adjusted.