# Atmospheric Science

1. Mar 31, 2013

### salma17

Assume that Hurricane Don forms into a category 1 hurricane and is positioned in the Gulf of Mexico as shown in the figure below. The 24 hour forecast is for Don to make landfall at the Texas/Louisiana border in 24 hours as a category 2 storm. (The states of Texas and Louisiana are labeled with TX and LA on the map).
The hatched area on the coast marks the areas forecasted to get hurricane force winds. The area on land between the two W’s marks the coastal areas that are put under a hurricane warning by the National Hurricane Center. Why is the hurricane warning area much larger than the area forecasted to get hurricane force winds? Assuming that the hurricane does make landfall exactly where predicted, where along the coast would you expect that the most damage will be done? Based on the current state of hurricane forecasting, discuss the possibility of the storm surprising forecasters and rapidly strengthening to a category 4 storm before hitting the coast.

I have no idea why the hurricane warning area is larger than the area forecasted to get hurricane force winds. Please help me :(

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2. Mar 31, 2013

### SteamKing

Staff Emeritus
Is every weather forecast guaranteed to be 100% accurate?

3. Mar 31, 2013

nope

4. Apr 2, 2013

### salma17

help, anyone?

5. Apr 3, 2013

### Staff: Mentor

You were already given help and you already gave at least the partial answer to the problem. Just follow this line of thinking. Any conclusions you can draw from the fact predictions are not accurate?

6. Apr 3, 2013

### salma17

I think I figured it out. The hurricane warning area is larger than the area forecasted to get hurricane force winds because there's still considerable uncertainty as to the exact landfall location of the Hurricane.Assuming that the hurricane does make landfall exactly where predicted,the most damage will occur to the right of the storm's center.The possibility of the storm rapidly strengthening to a category 4 storm before hitting the coast is unlikely.