rjbeery said:
PeterDonis...I feel you're being selectively nuanced.
I'm going on my best recollection of the various threads in which questions like this have come up. My best recollection is that the only claim that has been "unequivocally defended" is the one I quoted from Hawking: *classically*, event horizons are unavoidable. But we all know that reality is not classical.
rjbeery said:
You don't recall all the mentions of "clear evidence of black holes in astronomy" in previous threads?
The clear evidence is of compact objects that, classically, must be black holes, i.e., must have event horizons. Obviously whether or not they *actually* have event horizons depends on how significant quantum gravity effects are, and we don't have a theory of quantum gravity (yet) that can tell us that. We only have various educated speculations.
But there's also another point that probably should be clarified; Hawking, characteristically, only hints at it in his paper (the one on arxiv that is linked to in the Nature article) and leaves the reader to fill in. The point is this: in order to know for sure whether there is an event horizon present, and if so, where it is, you have to know the entire future of spacetime. We obviously don't. As far as our actual evidence is concerned, we can't distinguish the case where a compact object has an actual event horizon from the case where it only has an apparent horizon--a surface where outgoing light stays at the same radius--but not an actual event horizon, because the apparent horizon eventually disappears due to Hawking radiation.
Hawking is basically claiming that the compact objects we call "black holes" actually only have apparent horizons; if we knew the entire future of spacetime, we would see that these apparent horizons eventually disappear and all the quantum information that was hidden behind them gets back out again, so there is no actual event horizon. But there's no way to test this by observations at our current state of knowledge. We obviously can't directly observe the entire future of spacetime, and we don't have a quantum gravity theory that tells us what indirect observations might shed light on the question.
I can't say how carefully all the above points were observed in the various past threads on this topic, but I would point out that, given the state of our knowledge as I've described it above, asking whether black holes "really" exist, in the sense you appear to be using that term, is pointless: we just don't know. Various people have made various educated speculations, but we have no way of resolving the question at present. So if that's the question you really want an answer to, you're not going to get an answer, no matter how many times you ask it.