Calculate Odds of Team in Tiebreaker 2 Years in a Row

[wxrocks]

So, I am discussing with a friend of mine the odds of having a team be involved in a season end tiebreaker 2 years in a row. Although I did have statistics in college, I am a not a great statistician, so I am wondering if someone can help me with how to calculate the odds.

Thanks!

 

[CompuChip]

In such situations it is always difficult to get a reliable result. In stasticial models you usually make all kinds of assumptions (in the simplest case: the probability of any team winning a match is always equal to p and the number of matches played every season is the same). However, obviously apart from the complicated statistical factors (varying strengths of the opponents and qualities of the players in the team, ...) there is always some uncertainty which is hard to capture in the model (players can have a bad day, rain can spoil the game for the team which would have won if it had been sunny, a team can lose by one player hitting the ball in an unlucky way, ...)

Your best bet would probably to collect as many data from past years as possible, and apply some numerical analysis on that, rather than trying to make a mathematical model.