Calculating Probability of Correct Guesses in 3 Married Couples

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The discussion focuses on calculating the expected value E(X) and variance var(X) for the number of correct guesses in a scenario involving 3 married couples. The user initially calculated probabilities for 0, 1, 2, and 3 correct guesses but found that the total probability did not equal 1. The error identified was the assumption that the probability of each guess is independent, which is incorrect due to the dependency of guesses in this context. The correct approach requires considering the interdependence of the guesses.

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Dell
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in a room there are 3 married couples
somebody guesses which of the men are married to which of the women.
X=number of correct guesses.

find E(x), var(x)

i tried the following

X=0 (no correct guesses)
P(X)=2/3*2/3*2/3=8/27

X=1 (one correct guess)
P(X)=2/3*2/3*1/3=4/27

X=2 (two correct guesses)
P(X)=2/3*1/3*1/3=2/27

X=1 (three correct guesses)
P(X)=1/3*1/3*1/3=1/27


BUT the total
P(X=0) + P(X=1) + P(X=2) + P(X=3) does not come to 1
(8+4+2+1)/27=5/9

where am i going wrong? there are only 3 couples so he could not guess more that 3 correct couples.
the probability of guessing a correct couple is 1 in 3
 
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You are assuming the probability of a guess being correct is independent of previous guesses. That's not true. For example, there is no chance at all of getting two guesses correct and the third one wrong.
 

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