Chance of predicting the out come of a race like the Grand National?

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The discussion centers on the predictability of race outcomes, specifically the Grand National, a prominent horse racing event. The odds of predicting the winner among 20 horses are calculated at 20:1, assuming no prior knowledge of the horses' abilities. For predicting the top two finishers, the odds increase significantly to 380:1. The conversation hints at an interest in gambling, with one participant expressing a desire to place a bet on a horse. Additionally, there's a brief mention of jockeys being lighter, which may relate to their performance in races.
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What is the chance of predicting the out come of a race like the Grand National?
 
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What IS the Grand National?
 
Depends on how specific you want the results. If there are 20 horses and you want to predict who won, and there are 20 horses, your odds are 20:1 (assuming no knowledge of the horses skills, your choice is essentially random). If you want 1 and 2, your odds are 20*19= 380:1
 
Uh oh, is Wolram planning to do some gambling?
 
yes, i want to put a pony on a horse :smile:
 
wolram said:
yes, i want to put a pony on a horse :smile:

Jocks are lighter.
 

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