What Are My Chances for Acceptance to SUNY-SB's Applied Math PhD Program?

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The discussion centers on an individual's inquiry about their chances of acceptance into the applied math PhD program at Stony Brook University. The applicant has a strong academic background, including a 3.96 GPA at their current institution and a 3.93 GPA in their major, despite facing challenges such as financial issues and working nearly full-time. They have relevant experience in a lab using machine learning and are working on an honors thesis related to pseudo-Anosovs. Their GRE scores are competitive, with a 710 in verbal and a 760 in quantitative. However, they have not taken the Math Subject GRE and have a couple of lower grades due to their work commitments. The applicant also mentions a recently accepted conference paper, though it cannot be included in their application. The main concern is whether their application is significantly weak or if they still have a chance for acceptance.
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Hey all,

I know these threads are annoying, especially since hey, once you've sent in your application materials, there is nothing left to do but wait, and whatever anyone tells you about your chances of acceptance after that means nothing.

That said, I wondered if anyone would opine on my chances of being accepted to Stony Brook's (SUNY SB's) applied math PhD.

Here's me:
-Started as national merit scholar at a top music conservatory
-Switched to math, took semester off to take care of financial issues, transferred to a state school
-Have been working for 1 year at a lab doing computer work, using machine learning
-Working on honors thesis related to pseudo-Anosovs

Math subject GRE - not taken.
General GRE - Verbal 710 (99 percentile), Quant 760 (84 percentile)

GPA at current institution: 3.96
GPA in major at current institution: 3.93
Cumulative GPA: 3.68
Cumulative GPA in all math classes: 3.79

My major is mathematics, and I have a physics minor.
A couple of semesters after I switched to math, I started working almost 40 hours a week to support myself, and that semester I received two C+ grades in math classes--hence the lower cumulative GPA.
A conference paper I coauthored was recently accepted, but this is too late to include in my application.
I haven't taken any graduate-level courses, but I got an A in the most difficult undergraduate course offered at my school.

I guess I'm asking: is my application really, horribly weak? Or do I have a chance?
 
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