COVID COVID-19 Coronavirus Containment Efforts

[russ_watters]

The most recent on the current situation I could find was:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...ernment-spent-twice-Covid-19-stimulus-UK.html

Ok, thanks -- so at the very least your claim (as of more recently) was way wrong; per your source's source, Australia was middle of the pack in a group of 14 nations as of November. The original source is here (source's source's source?), updated through May 7:
http://web.boun.edu.tr/elgin/COVID.htm

It looks like there was an original April 2020 paper and then the author has continued to update the data. A few sample countries from the most recent dataset:

• Japan: 55% (highest of any country)
• USA: 27%
• Germany: 20%
• Italy: 19.3%
• Australia: 17.1%
• France: 16.8%
• UK: 11.8%

Also, I haven't read the paper yet and the dataset doesn't have descriptions, but this appears to include direct federal stimulus money only. There's also automatic financial support that happens on its own (normal unemployment compensation, welfare/food assistance, etc.) which I don't think is counted in that. And while I'm not sure about other countries, due to the multi-layers of US government, a lot if not most of our spending was at the state(s) level, not the federal level. Though much of that was pass-through so it shouldn't be double-counted.

[late edit] Also, you mentioned this in the context of "value of a human life", but most of this spending has nothing directly to do with saving lives. Most of the spending is economic stimulus.

 

[bhobba]

Ok, thanks -- so at the very least your claim (as of more recently) was way wrong;

Yes indeed. Things had moved on since a year ago when news media splashed this all over the Australian media. My bad for not checking the latest information.

What they did in Aus is combine unemployment benefits and similar payments into what was called Jobkeeper. That got paid to your employer to keep you employed while the business was struggling:
https://www.ato.gov.au/General/JobKeeper-Payment/Payment-rates/Paying-your-eligible-employees/

Interestingly, many employees got paid more than their normal wage. When asked to come to work, this created some 'interesting' discussions between employer and employee.

But payments stopped on March 28, which obviously changed the amount of money Australia was spending. We have a robust economic recovery, but unemployment issues remain:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04...b-spurt-we-are-still-above-capacity/100062098

Interesting, isn't it? There is fruit going to waste because nobody wants the job of picking it - yet there is significant youth unemployment:
https://www.abc.net.au/radio/newsradio/concerns-grow-as-qld-strawberry-farmers-struggle/13241396

Not a simple issue at all.

Things are getting pretty bad in Melbourne, and there is a push to keep it locked down and reinstate Jobkeeper. But I will do a separate post about that - the article is not behind a paywall as it is considered public interest. I often can't tell because I subscribe to my local paper, which gives me free access to many news stories from other sources.

Thanks
Bill

 

[bhobba]

Things are getting pretty bad in Melbourne:
https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/victoria/mystery-cluster-halts-hopes-of-early-easing-of-lockdown/news-story/f94d12157769d54bbadcff4f355d0ada?utm_source=CourierMail&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Editorial&utm_content=CM_LATESTNEWS_BREAKING-CUR_01&net_sub_id=285783538&type=curated&position=1&overallPos=1

Would you continue the lockdown? Would you reinstate Jobkeeper? I personally would, but as a democracy, it is not my decision to make. Keep in mind the media is publishing many stories of the economic hardship many businesses are suffering. Many say without Jobkeeper, they will go under.

Thanks
Bill

 

[AlexCaledin]

A new study has found that many patients with COVID-19 produce immune responses against their body's own tissues or organs.

"The antibodies we identified are similar to those that cause a number of skin, muscle and heart autoimmune diseases"

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/06/210603201045.htm

 

[Ygggdrasil]

Sure, the deep south is doing less well. And it has relatively low educational attainment. But you know what else it has a lot of? Black folks. African-Americans are getting vaccinated at 3/4 the rate of the population as a whole. The mainstream media seems completely OK with this, but I see it as a problem - especially as mortality rates are higher among the African-American population than the country as a whole.

I don't think it's true to claim that the "mainstream media" seems completely OK with this. For example, here are some articles in various news outlets on the issue:

NYTimes:
Pandemic’s Racial Disparities Persist in Vaccine Rollout
They Haven’t Gotten a Covid Vaccine Yet. But They Aren’t ‘Hesitant’ Either.

NPR:
Why Black And Latino People Still Lag On COVID Vaccines — And How To Fix It

Chicago Tribune:
Column: Separate and unequal: Lagging COVID-19 vaccine rates among Blacks and Latinos are a symptom of America’s chronic health problem

Washington Post:
Opinion: White Americans are being vaccinated at higher rates than Black Americans. Such inequity cannot stand.

This issue is also not being ignored by policy makers. For example, the Biden administration has put forward steps to help increase vaccine access, for example partnering with rideshare companies to provide free rides to vaccine sites. Similarly, local governments are also trying to address the issue. For example, in the City of Chicago has a page on vaccine equity which outlines the city's plans on how "to ensure that vaccine reaches the individuals and communities most impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, especially Black and Latinx residents" (exactly the issue you raise in your post). Local community groups are also making efforts to address the issue, for example, going door-to-door to promote vaccination in Black Chicago neighborhoods.

Whether these efforts has been successful is not something I've studied yet, but certainly many news organizations and policy makers do see lagging vaccination rates among Black, Latinx and poorer communities as a problem.

 

[Ygggdrasil]

A new study has found that many patients with COVID-19 produce immune responses against their body's own tissues or organs.

"The antibodies we identified are similar to those that cause a number of skin, muscle and heart autoimmune diseases"

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/06/210603201045.htm

Here's the article cited in the press release:

Establishing the prevalence of common tissue-specific autoantibodies following SARS CoV-2 infection
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/cei.13623

The results are similar to findings published earlier that also found autoantibodies in patients with COVID-19.

Diverse Functional Autoantibodies in Patients with COVID-19
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03631-y

Popular press summary: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00149-1

See also these earlier PF threads on the topic:
https://www.physicsforums.com/threads/flawed-interferon-response-spurs-severe-covid-19.994080/
https://www.physicsforums.com/threads/covid-19-and-auto-antibodies.996024/

 

[PeroK]

Re vaccination by ethnic groups, there is the same pattern in the UK:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55274833

The headline is that the white population vaccination rates are 89% (50-54 age group) to 97% (80+). Whereas, for the black population it's 62% (50-54) to 76% (80+). Which is pretty stark.

 

[Astronuc]

A new study has found that many patients with COVID-19 produce immune responses against their body's own tissues or organs.

"The antibodies we identified are similar to those that cause a number of skin, muscle and heart autoimmune diseases"

A family member, who is a pediatrician and family doctor, is seeing this in patients, even teenagers. Apparently there is a large scale study on this, but I don't know the details. There is a concern about young folks developing comorbidities.

 

[russ_watters]

A new study has found that many patients with COVID-19 produce immune responses against their body's own tissues or organs.

"The antibodies we identified are similar to those that cause a number of skin, muscle and heart autoimmune diseases"

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/06/210603201045.htm

Thanks for that - I have a dermatological issue that flared up after getting my 2nd Pfizer dose. I'll discuss with my dermatologist.

 

[.Scott]

Thanks for that - I have a dermatological issue that flared up after getting my 2nd Pfizer dose. I'll discuss with my dermatologist.

The issue is with people who have contracted COVID-19, not people who have become vaccinated.
Also, what the study is finding is auto-antibodies - which may presumably have a potential to lead to auto-immune disease.

But there are a couple of things that caught my attention:
1) They were contrasting the COVID group with "control groups of convenience". The control groups were not created through randomized selection. So it could be that a COVID infection is a brutal way of detecting auto-antibodies.
2) The portion of people in the "control groups" was very high. I had not realized that auto-antibodies were so common.

 

[bhobba]

which may presumably have a potential to lead to auto-immune disease.

Psoriatic Arthritis (PA) is more common than many think:
https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/psoriatic-arthritis/

Seeing a dermatologist if you have skin problems and possibly an increased risk of auto-immune disease may be a good idea. If you do have it, the earlier treatment starts with the new Biologics like Cosentyx, the better the likely outcome. I started too late, and it ravaged my body, especially my knees. My sister caught it early, and it is now in remission, but instead of PA, she now has Fibromyalgia. She can't say which is worse.

Thanks
Bill

 

[.Scott]

The State of New Hampshire just published its daily COVID numbers - for June 8. Pelham (my town) has a population of about 14,000 ... with zero active cases of COVID-19.

BTW: Since the start of the year, property prices have been soaring in NH. Apparently, this "Live Free or Die" state with minimal COVID restrictions (no restrictions now), mostly 1+ acre lots, and good success with COVID (hospital beds needed to be managed - but we never came close to running out) is attracting people from more congested or regulated regions.

 

[atyy]

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/india-elephants-tested-for-covid-19-after-lion-dies-14980006
Elephants in India tested for COVID-19 after rare lion's death

"In what is believed to be the first known death of an animal in India from the coronavirus, a nine-year-old lioness at a zoo in Chennai in Tamil Nadu state died in early June, local media reported.

The feline was among nine lions that had tested positive for the virus, including two who were in critical condition, Chennai's the New Indian Express newspaper reported last week.

...

The animals' handlers lifted their trunks to collect a sample from a nostril, according to video shared by the reserve. They also inserted swabs into the elephants' rectums.

...,.

"There was no difficulty in taking the sample swabs themselves as these are all trained elephants.""

 

[chemisttree]

"There was no difficulty in taking the sample swabs themselves as these are all trained elephants.""

I’ll file that trainer job under, “You couldn’t pay me enough”

 

[Jarvis323]

Study links Covid-19 to dementia.

https://alzres.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13195-021-00850-3

Seems like Covid-19 is turning out to be a whole lot worse than people have thought with all of non-immediately lethal effects it's causing for survirvors.

 

[morrobay]

Study links Covid-19 to dementia.

https://alzres.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13195-021-00850-3

Seems like Covid-19 is turning out to be a whole lot worse than people have thought with all of non-immediately lethal effects it's causing for survirvors.

Maybe I missed actual numbers in their 236000 cohort of " survivors who required hospitalization" And in the 73000 cohort with "various incidents" Also they state that those with pre existing Alzheimer's have increased risk. This is not only report where relevant factors seem to be passed over.

 

[Astronuc]

In China’s latest outbreak, doctors say the infected get sicker, faster.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/12/world/china-covid-delta-variant-guangzhou.html

As the Delta variant of the Coronavirus spreads in southeastern China, doctors say they are finding that the symptoms are different and more dangerous than those they saw when the initial version of the virus started spreading in late 2019 in the central city of Wuhan.

Patients are becoming sicker and their conditions are worsening much more quickly, doctors told state-run television on Thursday and Friday. Four-fifths of symptomatic cases developed fevers, they said, although it was not clear how that compared with earlier cases. The virus concentrations that are detected in their bodies climb to levels higher than previously seen, and then decline only slowly, the doctors said.

The city of Guangzhou is where the outbreak has been centered as opposed to the city of Wuhan in Hubei province, the location of the original outbreak.

The Chinese authorities have not indicated how many of the new infections have occurred in people who had been vaccinated. In some other countries where Chinese-made vaccines are in wide use, including the Seychelles and Mongolia, infections among vaccinated people are rising, although few patients have reportedly developed serious illness.

And apparently, Moscow has ordered a shutdown as a wave of new cases develops in Russia.

 

[bhobba]

Seems like Covid-19 is turning out to be a whole lot worse than people have thought with all of non-immediately lethal effects it's causing for survirvors.

Yes. Again the out is the vaccine - we must all be vaccinated.

Thanks
Bill

 

[chemisttree]

Any news regarding the infection rate among non-Chinese vaccine vaccinated? I wonder what the delta infection rate would be for the Moderna and Pfizer vaccinated?

 

[Ygggdrasil]

Any news regarding the infection rate among non-Chinese vaccine vaccinated? I wonder what the delta infection rate would be for the Moderna and Pfizer vaccinated?

Preliminary data from Public Health England suggests 88% effeciveness of the Pfizer vaccine against B.1.617.2 (delta) vs 93% effectiveness against B.1.1.7 (alpha).

Effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines against the B.1.617.2 variant
https://khub.net/documents/13593956...iant.pdf/204c11a4-e02e-11f2-db19-b3664107ac42

Abstract

Background The B.1.617.2 COVID-19 variant has contributed to the surge in cases in India and has now been detected across the globe, including a notable increase in cases in the UK. We estimate the effectiveness of the BNT162b2 and ChAdOx1 COVID-19 vaccines against this variant.

Methods A test negative case control design was used to estimate the effectiveness of vaccination against symptomatic disease with both variants over the period that B.1.617.2 began circulating with cases identified based on sequencing and S-gene target status. Data on all symptomatic sequenced cases of COVID-19 in England was used to estimate the proportion of cases with B.1.617.2 compared to the predominant strain (B.1.1.7) by vaccination status.

Results Effectiveness was notably lower after 1 dose of vaccine with B.1.617.2 cases 33.5% (95%CI: 20.6 to 44.3) compared to B.1.1.7 cases 51.1% (95%CI: 47.3 to 54.7) with similar results for both vaccines. With BNT162b2 2 dose effectiveness reduced from 93.4% (95%CI: 90.4 to 95.5) with B.1.1.7 to 87.9% (95%CI: 78.2 to 93.2) with B.1.617.2. With ChAdOx1 2 dose effectiveness reduced from 66.1% (95% CI: 54.0 to 75.0) with B.1.1.7 to 59.8% (95%CI: 28.9 to 77.3) with B.1.617.2. Sequenced cases detected after 1 or 2 doses of vaccination had higher odds of infection with B.1.617.2 compared to unvaccinated cases (OR 1.40; 95%CI: 1.13-1.75).

Conclusions After 2 doses of either vaccine there were only modest differences in vaccine effectiveness with the B.1.617.2 variant. Absolute differences in vaccine effectiveness were more marked with dose 1. This would support maximising vaccine uptake with 2 doses among vulnerable groups.

Popular press summary: https://www.bmj.com/content/373/bmj.n1346

 

[Dale]

Preliminary data from Public Health England suggests 88% effeciveness of the Pfizer vaccine against B.1.617.2 (delta) vs 93% effectiveness against B.1.1.7 (alpha).

Effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines against the B.1.617.2 variant
https://khub.net/documents/13593956...iant.pdf/204c11a4-e02e-11f2-db19-b3664107ac42

Abstract Popular press summary: https://www.bmj.com/content/373/bmj.n1346

Note that the statement includes confidence intervals: "BNT162b2 2 dose effectiveness reduced from 93.4% (95%CI: 90.4 to 95.5) with B.1.1.7 to 87.9% (95%CI: 78.2 to 93.2) with B.1.617.2." So there is considerable overlap in the confidence interval.

 

[Vanadium 50]

So there is considerable overlap in the confidence interval.

There is, but it is also possible to be more certain that there has been a shift than the exact value of the before or after numbers. Common systematics are one reason (maybe the most frequent) you can get this behavior.

I don't know enough to determine if this is the case here or not.

 

[Dale]

There is, but it is also possible to be more certain that there has been a shift than the exact value of the before or after numbers. Common systematics are one reason (maybe the most frequent) you can get this behavior.

I don't know enough to determine if this is the case here or not.

Yes, that would be a confidence interval on the difference instead of a confidence interval on each individual value. Indeed, as you say, the confidence interval of the difference can be much smaller than the difference of the confidence intervals.

 

[chemisttree]

Thanks, Ygg.

 

[nsaspook]

Popular press summary: https://www.bmj.com/content/373/bmj.n1346

The UK government has been urged to speed up giving two doses of the Covid-19 vaccine after data showed a single dose was only 33% effective against the B.1.617.2 variant first detected in India, which continues to see a rapid growth in cases in the UK.

https://www.statnews.com/2021/01/04...accines-upping-the-stakes-for-the-rest-of-us/

In an extraordinary time, British health authorities are taking extraordinary measures to beat back Covid-19. But some experts say that, in doing so, they are also taking a serious gamble.

In recent days, the British have said they will stretch out the interval between the administration of the two doses required for Covid-19 vaccines already in use — potentially to as long as three months, instead of the recommended three or four weeks. And they have said they will permit the first dose and second dose for anyone person to be from different vaccine manufacturers, if the matching vaccine is not available.

 

[chemisttree]

“We will not need a special vaccine for it. The current vaccine should cover it." - Albert Bourla (Pfizer CEO)

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/covid-vaccine-delta-variant-pfizer-ceo/

 

[AlexCaledin]

Interestingly, no significant difference in COVID-19 incidence was observed between previously infected and currently unvaccinated participants, previously infected and currently vaccinated participants, and previously uninfected and currently vaccinated participants.
The participants from these three groups exhibited a significantly lower incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection compared to previously uninfected and currently unvaccinated participants.

https://www.news-medical.net/news/2...ID-19-Findings-of-Cleveland-Clinic-study.aspx

 

[nsaspook]

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-57464097

Covid: Lockdown easing in England to be delayed by four weeks​

But many scientists have called for the reopening to be delayed to enable more people to be vaccinated and receive second doses, amid rising cases of the Delta variant, which was first identified in India.
A delay would also allow more work to be done on whether vaccines are breaking, or simply weakening, the link between infections and hospitalisations.
Health Minister Edward Argar told BBC Breakfast that he could not confirm the delay before the PM's announcement, but that there was a "concerning increase" in cases of the Delta variant and numbers in hospital were "beginning to creep up".
Most severe cases were among unvaccinated people or those who had only one dose, he said, adding that at current rates nearly 10 million second doses could be administered over four weeks to increase protection.

 

[PeroK]

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-57464097

Covid: Lockdown easing in England to be delayed by four weeks​

We nearly made it! The only thing that could go wrong was a new variant that was severe enough and more resistant to the vaccine - and that's what we now have, courtesy of people flying in from India. Not only that, but it seems to be more virulent in the young, who are still largely unvaccinated.

Now 77% of the adult population (18+) have had one dose of the vaccine, and 56% have had both doses. However, to be protected from the Delta variant, it seems, you need both doses. That's why we are effectively back at 56%, rather than 77%.

Moreover, once we take into account the 14 million children under 18, the vaccinated numbers are only 61% and 44%. A long way from the supposed herd immunity at 80%.

I did see a BBC News item weighing up the pros and cons of vaccinating secondary school children (12+). It seemed that, in summary:

Argument for: vaccinating children is necessary to end the pandemic - especially given the Delta variant.

Argument against: maybe we shouldn't do it.

In any case, we now need an extra 4 weeks of full-steam vaccinations to get about 80% of the adult population fully vaccinated.

Note: these are figures for the UK, not just England.

 

[pinball1970]

We nearly made it! The only thing that could go wrong was a new variant that was severe enough and more resistant to the vaccine - and that's what we now have, courtesy of people flying in from India. Not only that, but it seems to be more virulent in the young, who are still largely unvaccinated.

Now 77% of the adult population (18+) have had one dose of the vaccine, and 56% have had both doses. However, to be protected from the Delta variant, it seems, you need both doses. That's why we are effectively back at 56%, rather than 77%.

Moreover, once we take into account the 14 million children under 18, the vaccinated numbers are only 61% and 44%. A long way from the supposed herd immunity at 80%.

I did see a BBC News item weighing up the pros and cons of vaccinating secondary school children (12+). It seemed that, in summary:

Argument for: vaccinating children is necessary to end the pandemic - especially given the Delta variant.

Argument against: maybe we shouldn't do it.

In any case, we now need an extra 4 weeks of full-steam vaccinations to get about 80% of the adult population fully vaccinated.

Note: these are figures for the UK, not just England.

Something to do with this...