COVID COVID-19 Coronavirus Containment Efforts

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Containment efforts for the COVID-19 Coronavirus are facing significant challenges, with experts suggesting that it may no longer be feasible to prevent its global spread. The virus has a mortality rate of approximately 2-3%, which could lead to a substantial increase in deaths if it becomes as widespread as the flu. Current data indicates around 6,000 cases, with low mortality rates in areas with good healthcare. Vaccine development is underway, but it is unlikely to be ready in time for the current outbreak, highlighting the urgency of the situation. As the outbreak evolves, the healthcare system may face considerable strain, underscoring the need for continued monitoring and response efforts.
  • #571
kadiot said:
Next set of query from the chart, they should remove the query Yes or No for history since either go for PUI and PUM.. Confusing.

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/03/06/20/philippines-2-new-coronavirus-cases

We just have confirmed 4th and 5th cases. We are not immuned after all. Now we have a problem and it is just starting.

Where can anyone buy an NCOVID-19 test kit? I have a cough and tired recently. I want to be able to test myself and other relatives/friends without going to the hospital and risk getting real infections.
 
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  • #572
chirhone said:
https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/03/06/20/philippines-2-new-coronavirus-cases

We just have confirmed 4th and 5th cases. We are not immuned after all. Now we have a problem and it is just starting.

Where can anyone buy an NCOVID-19 test kit? I have a cough and tired recently. I want to be able to test myself and other relatives/friends without going to the hospital and risk getting real infections.
This quote from the story, “The absence of travel is a clear indication that this is a local case. But it is still premature to say that there is local transmission, we need to be evidence-based.

I wonder what evidence they’re waiting for? Astonishing!
 
  • #573
chirhone said:
Where can anyone buy an NCOVID-19 test kit? I have a cough and tired recently. I want to be able to test myself and other relatives/friends without going to the hospital and risk getting real infections.
No such thing exists or likely ever will.
 
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  • #574
chemisttree said:
This quote from the story, “The absence of travel is a clear indication that this is a local case. But it is still premature to say that there is local transmission, we need to be evidence-based.

I wonder what evidence they’re waiting for? Astonishing!
That's a very convenient EXCUSE by DOH. They don't even have test kits and monitoring, so where do they base their statements?

Edit to add: Maybe the news writer is just fond of using the term evidence based without really understanding the seriousness of the situation. I heard the multi-agency task force led by DOH in a congressional hearing weeks ago and I thought they were funny.
 
  • #575
Local case (no travel) is not the equivalent of local transmission?

How do they explain how this man got the virus? By opening an email attachment perhaps?
 
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  • #576
Is there a cure for the new coronavirus?

By Stephanie Pappas - Live Science Contributor 2 days ago

When would you know you have the virus?

COVID-19, the respiratory disease caused by the new coronavirus, has spread to every continent except Antarctica. Not too long after the virus was first discovered at the end of December, labs turned their sights toward treatment.

Currently, however, there is no cure for this coronavirus, and treatments are based on the kind of care given for influenza (seasonal flu) and other severe respiratory illnesses, known as "supportive care," according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). These treatments essentially treat the symptoms, which often in the case of COVID-19 involve fever, cough and shortness of breath. In mild cases, this might simply mean rest and fever-reducing medications such as acetaminophen (Tylenol) for comfort.

In hospitals, doctors and nurses are sometimes treating COVID-19 patients with the antiviral drug oseltamivir, or Tamiflu, which seems to suppress the virus' reproduction in at least some cases. This is somewhat surprising, Michigan Tech virologist Ebenezer Tumban told Live Science, as Tamiflu was designed to target an enzyme on the influenza virus, not on coronaviruses. The National Institutes of Health has begun a clinical trial at the University of Nebraska Medical Center to test the antiviral remdesivir for COVID-19, the agency announced Feb. 25. In China, doctors are also testing an array of other antivirals originally designed to treat Ebola and HIV, Nature Biotechnology reported.

In cases in which pneumonia inhibits breathing, treatment involves ventilation with oxygen. Ventilators blow air into the lungs through a mask or a tube inserted directly into the windpipe. A New England Journal of Medicine study of 1,099 hospitalized patients with the Coronavirus in China found that 41.3% needed supplemental oxygen and 2.3% needed invasive mechanical ventilation. Glucocorticoids were given to 18.6% of patients, a treatment often used to reduce inflammation and help open airways during respiratory disease.

There is no vaccine for the Coronavirus that causes COVID-19. Scientists are working to develop one, Hilary Marston, a medical officer and policy advisor at the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), said in a Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health webcast on Monday (March 2). However, there will not be a vaccine for the virus in the near term.

"If everything moves as quickly as possible, the soonest that it could possibly be is about one-and-a-half to two years. That still might be very optimistic," Marston said.

[ . . . ]

https://www.livescience.com/can-coronavirus-be-cured.html
 
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  • #577
"There was extensive environmental contamination by 1 SARS-CoV-2 patient with mild upper respiratory tract involvement. Toilet bowl and sink samples were positive, suggesting that viral shedding in stool5 could be a potential route of transmission. Postcleaning samples were negative, suggesting that current decontamination measures are sufficient."

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/ja...a9SlRnMb2TaWCyJJ3CImYi-JdNUlzRz5P8-fOkL8CDpjQ
 
  • #578
chirhone said:
https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/03/06/20/philippines-2-new-coronavirus-cases

We just have confirmed 4th and 5th cases. We are not immuned after all. Now we have a problem and it is just starting.

Where can anyone buy an NCOVID-19 test kit? I have a cough and tired recently. I want to be able to test myself and other relatives/friends without going to the hospital and risk getting real infections.
russ_watters said:
No such thing exists or likely ever will.
I was told that the testing for Covid-19 in Philippines is being done in Research Institute for Tropical Medicine (RITM). There are currently several formats for testing. A validated RT-PCR (a process that amplifies DNA if it is present using primers) is the most common method but there are others. The RT-PCR machine can use either a commercial KIT (includes primers and reagents in a package) or an in-house method that uses primers and reagents that are bought separately. That is what I meant by PH-DOH doesn't have kits, because they use the in-house method which is cheaper but is good enough as long as it is done properly. RITM uses an in-house method with primers supplied from Japan. One primer set is good for 1,500 tests. They currently have enough primers to run 3,000 in house tests. The kit that Philippine Genome Center and UP NIH is developing still needs to be validated but runs on the same principle. TMI? Bottomline is RITM can do the Covid19 test confirmation without kits and they have enough materials to do 3,000 tests.
 
  • #580
bhobba said:
There are only 50 people in the the whole of Australia that have it, but boy has it had an impact psychologically:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-51731422
article said:
Police were even called to a dispute on Wednesday, with reports saying a knife was pulled out in an argument over toilet roll between panic buying shoppers.
Ah, the Land Down Under. When I first saw the Mad Max films, I thought them neat apocalyptic fiction. Over the years it's been dawning on me they are actually allegorical documentaries about Aussie psyche, and y'all but one toilet roll away from the Thunderdome. :wink:
 
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  • #581
Are these also the terms used in other countries, the difference between "local transmission" vs "community transmission"?

http://inqm.news/iuug

"Local transmission is defined as the transfer of the virus that causes the disease in a local geographical setting.

Dr. Rabindra Abeyasinghe, WHO's representative in the Philippines, however, clarified that the case will not be a widespread contamination for now, as long as contact tracing is still being conducted.

"Even the fifth case is a local transmission, but getting another case in a local contact does not mean widespread contamination. We already know that this disease is transmitted upon close contacts," he told reporters when asked if the fifth patient's relatives also tested positive for COVID-19 later on.

When there is already a "widespread transmission beyond the geographical area," Abeyasinghe said this is already considered a community transmission."

So we don't have community transmission although we have local transmission? Maybe we are still hoping against hope we are more immune than others like the South Koreans?
 
  • #582
You can have local transmission without community transmission. For example, consider the case where someone who has traveled from an infected area (e. g. China, Italy, Iran, or South Korea), shows symptoms and tests positive. This travel related case counts as neither local nor community transmission because the disease was not acquired locally.

Now consider the case that this individual infects a family member who did not travel. This counts as local transmission because the virus was acquired locally, but not community transmission because we can trace the source of the infection. This situation is not bad because public health officials can still use contact tracing to isolate individuals to stop the spread of the disease.

Community transmission occurs when people start being diagnosed with the disease who have no history of travel or contact with known cases. This situation suggests that there are undiagnosed individuals in the community spreading the disease, so contact tracing will not likely be sufficient to contain the disease.
 
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  • #583
One may have come in contact with a foreigner with disease. Sustained local transmission in the community is defined as transmission from one local to another. If its from a foreigner to a local, you can prevent subsequent sustained transmission by meticulous quarantine.
 
  • #584
kadiot said:
One may have come in contact with a foreigner with disease. Sustained local transmission in the community is defined as transmission from one local to another.
If we are to trust @Ygggdrasil, sustained local transmission in the community amounts to transmission from an unidentified local. The ability to usefully trace individual contacts has been lost and the entire community is considered suspect.

If its from a foreigner to a local, you can prevent subsequent sustained transmission by meticulous quarantine.
If it is from a local to a local you can still prevent subsequent sustained transmission by meticulous quarantine. As long as you can trace the local's prior contacts, you can increase the scope of the quarantine to include those. In principle, this is no different from a foreigner. It's just that with a recently arrived foreigner it is easier to trace prior contacts.
 
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  • #585
jbriggs444 said:
If we are to trust @Ygggdrasil, sustained local transmission in the community amounts to transmission from an unidentified local. The ability to usefully trace individual contacts has been lost and the entire community is considered suspect.If it is from a local to a local you can still prevent subsequent sustained transmission by meticulous quarantine. As long as you can trace the local's prior contacts, you can increase the scope of the quarantine to include those. In principle, this is no different from a foreigner. It's just that with a recently arrived foreigner it is easier to trace prior contacts.
I agree. Yes once it has spread from local to (unidentified) local, its much harder to trace.
 
Last edited:
  • #586
"The virus is not believed to be transmissable by people who do not have symptoms. Dr Bloomfield said people who were in that area were casual contacts - and not close contacts"

Taken from
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national...-s-fourth-covid-19-case-attended-tool-concert

Do you agree with that statement? It was rockin' roll. Headbang until he is so sweaty and breathless. Boom!

It is the duty of every government to ban large gatherings. Do not sacrifice people's health and possibly lives for the sake of money.

To a Covid19 carrier. Don't pass the virus to others. It's no different from murder. Be responsible with your action.
 
  • #587
Shaking hands - bad

elbow bumps and head banging - good
 
  • #588
Yes, tell the Beatles: "I _don't_ want to hold your hand" ( because I don't want to get Wuhan(ed))
 
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  • #589
kadiot said:
Don't pass the virus to others. It's no different from murder.

Of course it's different.
 
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  • #590
What happens when the Mayor declares a COVID-19 state of emergency...

CA75AC59-95DA-47D7-87A8-A2FA665673A5.jpeg


This is where the bleach would be. It will soon be restocked. Strangely, the chlorine pool “bleach” (10% sodium hypochlorite) hasn’t been touched. Sorry, no pictures of that section.

ABB6F124-A86D-4E3B-81C5-A7B5341170B8.jpeg

This is where the surface cleaners and sanitary wipes would go. It will soon be restocked. There is no shortage of this stuff.

People are also buying WATER! Why?
 

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  • #591
chemisttree said:
People are also buying WATER! Why?

Because that's what you do in an emergency that will completely wipe out civilization.
 
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  • #592
Vanadium 50 said:
Because that's what you do in an emergency that will completely wipe out civilization.
Well, they’re doing it wrong! At the P3*meeting they tell us to buy above ground pools and fill ‘em up. They come with recirculating pumps and filters. C’mon Uh-murica! Panic Properly!

*People Panicking Properly (P3)
 
  • #593
Vanadium 50 said:
Because that's what you do in an emergency that will completely wipe out civilization.
...such as the first 2" snowstorm of the year. You buy a month's worth of milk that will go bad in a week, and a years' supply of toilet paper.

The downside of not paying attention to the apocalypse is if you accidentally go to the grocery store the day before a snowstorm you may get beaten to death over a roll of toilet paper, and if you go the day after, there isn't any left!
 
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  • #594
chemisttree said:
eople are also buying WATER! Why?
Because the authorities made public statements telling the public to have 2 weeks food and water on supply at home. I think they should have left the word water out of that.

I fear being unable to buy food in the stores more than I fear catching the virus.
 
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  • #595
Vanadium 50 said:
Because that's what you do in an emergency that will completely wipe out civilization.
Open your tap and fill up plastic bottles?
 
  • #596
anorlunda said:
Because the authorities made public statements telling the public to have 2 weeks food and water on supply at home. I think they should have left the word water out of that.

I fear being unable to buy food in the stores more than I fear catching the virus.
Wait, did anyone actually suggest that for this apocalypse or is that just the general apocalypse preparedness advice?
 
  • #597
russ_watters said:
The downside of not paying attention to the apocalypse is if you accidentally go to the grocery store the day before a snowstorm you may get beaten to death over a roll of toilet paper, and if you go the day after, there isn't any left!
That’s why I’m heavily invested in smooth rocks!😉
 
  • #598
russ_watters said:
Wait, did anyone actually suggest that for this apocalypse or is that just the general apocalypse preparedness advice?
Yes, I heard it on TV from the local head of public health department. It may be stupid, but she is the authorized spokesperson.

The rationale is related to people being ordered to work from home and to avoid crowds. Not all people are white collar workers. Some are retail store cashiers and some are truck drivers. If those people don't come to work, the stores must close.
 
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  • #599
@chirhone : we are told here (Seattle area) that if we think we may have the virus and want to be tested we should call our doctor and discuss the situation. The doctor will make a determination as to whether the test is warranted and make an appointment with you to come in under appropriate conditions for a test. You should not go to an emergency room , nor come unannounced to the doctor's office, for exactly the reasons you gave.
 
  • #600
Fellow posters let's keep in mind that this is a serious issue facing the world today and people are dying because of this illness. There is much fear going around and in an era of intolerance for others, this can lead to people taking what we know here to be humorous as factual with dire consequences.

Personally, I know a few friends who have been questioned by strangers as to where they came from and if they've traveled to China recently. I can see this escalating further if we don't stop and consider that our words can sow so much more fear.

VOX has presented some excellent videos on the why and how of the Coronavirus and I have posted one such video below:



Bottom line, no more jokes (that includes you @jedishrfu ).

Jedi
 
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