COVID COVID-19 Coronavirus Containment Efforts

[jedishrfu]

Lastly, some comparisons of Spanish flu with Coronavirus:

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/were-not-facing-second-spanish-flu/607354/

and some photos of the 1918 era:

https://www.theatlantic.com/photo/2018/04/photos-the-1918-flu-pandemic/557663/

and some consequences of the Spanish flu namely WW1 leading to WW2:

https://mashable.com/article/-coronavirus-flu-1918/

and a Spanish flu mystery:

https://www.statnews.com/2018/12/05/1918-spanish-flu-unraveling-mystery/

 

[chemisttree]

If the H1N1 Swine flu of 2009 experience is repeated, about half of the population may not believe the eventual COVID-19 vaccine would be safe (40-45%). A similar fraction of the US has had a flu shot this year, which is about 45% effective against this year’s flu mélange.

 

[mfb]

Lastly, some comparisons of Spanish flu with Coronavirus:

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/were-not-facing-second-spanish-flu/607354/

I'm not sure what the article wants to tell readers. Yes, obviously we are not facing an exact copy of the Spanish flu. Medicine advanced massively in the last 100 years. We are not recovering from a world war either - fewer people are weakened from wars, more people have access to enough food and so on. But despite all these advances 1-2% of the patients die. Without modern medicine that fraction could be as high as 10%. So what is the take-away message here? Covid-19 as virus is worse than the Spanish flu?
We have seen H1N1 (closely related to the 1918 virus) again in 2009. It was a relatively mild disease with a low case fatality rate.

 

[jedishrfu]

One key difference was that the Spanish flu attacked the young and overstimulated their immune response whereas in the Coronavirus the mortality is based more on your age with 80+ at 15% mortality.

 

[DennisN]

I just saw a very interesting and informative interview on the topic (from today):

CEO of the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations Dr Richard Hatchett explains the long-term dangers of the Covid-19 Coronavirus - saying it's the scariest outbreak he's dealt with in his 20-year career.

Coronavirus expert: 'War¹ is an appropriate analogy' (Mar 6, 2020, Channel 4 News)


¹ If I remember correctly, the word "war" was used as an analogy to how the Chinese society was tackling the situation with the virus.

 

[kadiot]

What happens when the Mayor declares a COVID-19 state of emergency...

View attachment 258243

This is where the bleach would be. It will soon be restocked. Strangely, the chlorine pool “bleach” (10% sodium hypochlorite) hasn’t been touched. Sorry, no pictures of that section.

View attachment 258245
This is where the surface cleaners and sanitary wipes would go. It will soon be restocked. There is no shortage of this stuff.

People are also buying WATER! Why?

It's also in Singapore and Australia that fear factor has set in and panic buying has started in some places.

I wonder why are people buying bottled water too. I lived in Perth, Australia and I am now based in Singapore. Tap water is clean and safe. Water will still come out of the tap.

Lack of information, there are different types of disaster scenarios requiring different approaches to mitigate and respond. Preparing and responding to supertyphoon, earthquake and pandemics require different approaches and strategies.

 

[OCR]

Because that's what you do in an emergency that will completely wipe out civilization.

Not me. . . a long time ago, I stocked up on some really good stuff that works on almost

everything. . . . It's unavailable now, and I got the last of it. . . . The supplier is now defunct, but it was invented by. . . The Pink and Lilly Company®

no more jokes[/size]

Just a tiny, tiny one ?[/size]
.

 

[bhobba]

Because that's what you do in an emergency that will completely wipe out civilization.

Just look at the toilet paper buying in Australia. Seriously while some theories have been posted as to why, and I haven't read them yet, it looks simply like the madness of crowds. Personally I am doing what the experts such as Professor Nigel McMillan says, who is doing a great job of getting information out there:
https://www.skynews.com.au/details/_6138607264001

So try and stay healthy, wash hands and all that stuff, and if you have diabetes like me constantly take your readings and keep it under 8. I cracked last night and had a Pizza, was about 11 when I went to bed, but is under 8 now. So try not to crack - either irrationally buying toilet paper or eating the wrong foods with diabetes. To US readers - we use a different scale for measuring blood sugar than you do, in our scale most doctors do not worry if its 10 or under, would prefer 8 or under - 5 is normal non diabetic levels.

Thanks
Bill

 

[atyy]

SXSW CANCELED: 2020 festival will not be held amid COVID-19 concerns
https://www.kxan.com/news/coronavir...w-other-spring-events-amid-covid-19-concerns/

 

[Mary Conrads Sanburn]

'I'm scared to lose my job and I'm scared to die': Retail employees describe working conditions as Coronavirus panic heightens nationwide

Hayley Peterson and Shoshy Ciment

Mar 5, 2020, 6:37 AM

US retail workers are under intense pressure to keep shelves stocked amid a rash of panic buying over Coronavirus concerns, according to interviews with 20 employees of Walmart, Target, and CVS.
Employees also expressed fears about getting sick and missing work due to what they described as strict attendance policies and limited or no paid sick leave.
"At Target, we've been prioritizing our team, starting by ensuring that all of our China-based team members have been able to work from home," Target CEO Brian Cornell said during a call with investors earlier this week. "More broadly, we spent considerable time focused on the best way to support our team members all around the world to make sure they stay healthy and safe.
A Walmart spokesperson said the company is closely monitoring the situation and will adjust policies as needed.
"We are actively monitoring the environment for COVID-19 related risks as we develop workplace plans to help ensure our employees stay safe and healthy," a CVS spokesperson told Business Insider in a statement.

At a Target store in Michigan, an employee in the electronics department has stopped greeting his favorite customers with handshakes and hugs amid the growing threat of coronavirus, and he's started to worry about what would happen if he got sick.

"You don't get paid if you call out," the employee, Robert O'Banner, said in an interview with Business Insider. "I don't have the money to call off a day."

On the other side of the country, in Oregon, Robert Davis is growing concerned about the likelihood of exposure to the virus through his job stocking shelves at a Walmart store.

"We're in contact with hundreds of people every week," Davis said, noting that he also handles hundreds of products during his shifts. He said he's worried about what his family would do if he died.

"It weighs a lot on me," he said.

[ . . . ]

###

https://www.businessinsider.com/wal...-working-conditions-during-coronavirus-2020-3

WOW! Makes me cry~
Walmart, Target, and CVS are stores I go to!

 

[bhobba]

SXSW CANCELED: 2020 festival will not be held amid COVID-19 concerns

We are getting a LOT of event cancellations here in Aus. It seems our governments policy is relying heavily on this sort of thing ie social distancing. We are a country with a lot of open space and a sparse population after all. My emergency plan is a good friend has this little house on a property a couple of hours outside of Toowoomba and will move in there.

Thanks
Bill

 

[kadiot]

I was intrigued by this post. Most of the health organizations recommendation is clear: social distancing, travel limit and other contingency measures, and if people choose not to follow... (shrug)

Anyway I thought I'd post it here.

Here it is. Any comment would be appreciated

One of the things that I think is erroneous is the belief that the World by itself will be able to contain the virus spread by limiting travel and decreasing contact. Travel bans have never been proven to stop the spread of virus and the avoidance of any form of contact is immensely difficult.
Make no bones about it, it will spread.
Sars and Mers-Cov, both etiologic agents of deadly pneumonias have no known vaccine and no pharmaceutical magic bullet.
But.
The viruses just waned, decreasing in the amount of people infected and is now out of the World's immediate concern, just waiting in the sidelines.
The same thing will happen with Covid-19.
One of the things that was quietly noted in the recent week was the fact that the number of the reported new cases from the rest of the World, for the first time, outnumbered that which came from China. This is expected and is due to a number of things; among which are the better pick-up or diagnosis rate, faster and more reliable tests, popular awareness and others. It does not necessarily mean that the World is getting worse. or that armageddon is coming.
Whether the warmer months will decrease the rate of spread remains to be seen. But before the debacle truly ends, I would expect the number of cases in the world in total to increase. I would also expect the management of the critical cases to get better. This will initially jump the reported cases and the mortality up.
However, if the scientists are correct in assuming that the R-naught is around 2, the reported cases will decrease and...
This will translate to a lower mortality rate.
One of the unfortunate things however that is happening is its effect on the status of economies and the social impact the disease has on our way of life.
We shun how terror had been sown its disruption on our collective lives.
Unfortunately like a zombie apocalypse, this disease similarly has revealed how fragile our humanity is and how fear affects our resolve to maintain a world socio-politico-economic order.
As I have said in another thread, the Philippines, economically delicate as it is, is predicted to suffer a decrease in GDP of about 0.7+ percent and already the PSEi has decreased from 7900-8000+ for 6800+. People had made, erroneously, a mad dash for facemasks. Racist comments abound and this is not only limited to social media.
The next battle will not involve the virus itself.
Fomented by sharing of fabrications and an irresponsible media which has, at the very least, allowed the populace to doubt their medical vanguard, It is utterly shameless how the collective adult community has responded to this international predicament.
Like always, it is crucial that we screw our heads right. It is about time that this ragtag World we live in believe in the Science, not because it is right, but because is logical.
Word.

 

[DennisN]

Another interesting interview on the topic:

We speak to Dr Bruce Aylward, the current Assistant Director-General of the World Health Organization, and the leader of the WHO team that visited Wuhan in China - where the outbreak began, for two weeks in February.

Coronavirus: W.H.O. expert interviewed after trip to Wuhan (Mar 4, 2020, Channel 4 News)
(he also talks about various useful efforts that have been, and can be made)


Edit:

And here are two informative pages on the WHO site:

• WHO Coronavirus disease advice for the public
• WHO Coronavirus disease main page

 

[pinball1970]

We are getting a LOT of event cancellations here in Aus. It seems our governments policy is relying heavily on this sort of thing ie social distancing. We are a country with a lot of open space and a sparse population after all. My emergency plan is a good friend has this little house on a property a couple of hours outside of Toowoomba and will move in there.

Thanks
Bill

Yeah I was due at a conference in two weeks in London now cancelled. First time in 13 years bearing in mind the conference went ahead despite several terror attacks in city over the last few years . Brings it home a little bit.

 

[Dr. Courtney]

I wouldn't criticize folks who decide to stock up on certain items. Having lived both in hurricane alleys and places where winter storms can knock out power for days, I've always felt it prudent to keep enough food, water, and medical supplies on hand for a few weeks. There are lots of things that can knock out normal supply chains. Uninterrupted supply chains seem more like a historical anomaly for the late 20th century western world than a historical constant that can be expected to continue indefinitely. Is it better to plan for a period of self-sufficiency or dependency in the aftermath of some disaster?

Coronavirus just adds one more reason to stock up on some basic supplies. Most really big disasters occur when multiple factors combine - war and disease, hurricane and cholera, terrorist strike and natural disaster, flood and nuclear failure, viral pandemic and grid failure?

Human overreactions can exacerbate any disaster, and while that is possible with coronavirus, I don't think stocking up on basic supplies constitutes an overreaction. Though I don't expect it, it is not unreasonable to prepare for the possibility that fear and quarantines could lead to some supply chain interruptions, including utilities, especially if combined with a second disaster occurring at about the same time.

 

[anorlunda]

There is an interesting debate here in Florida. It relates to sick pay for workers. The story on TV said that 10% of public sector employees and 30% of private sector employees have no right to paid sick leave. This is seen as an impediment to people heeding advice to stay home if sick thus reducing the speed of spread of the virus. The debate in Florida centers on legal obstacles to providing such coverage. There may be additional obstacles.

To illustrate who might be impacted they showed a number of minimum wage workers on TV. But minimum wage work might also be vital.

But some employees are vital to the supply of critical infrastructure and critical services. For them, the advice to stay home must be reversed, if they are truly vital. We need to keep the power grid running, We need to keep grocery stores open. For those vital people to get to work, they must have transportation. If the schools are closed, they must have child care. Doctors and engineers might be vital, but retail cashiers, truck drivers, and baby sitting, might also be vital.

It exposes a priority issue that is easy to forget in our haste to make knee jerk decisions in this crisis.

Slowing the speed of spread of COVID19 is a public health issue. (See #502) But it is not priority 1. A higher priority than the virus is keeping people supplied with food, electricity, heat, health services, ... Employees vital to those things must be exceptions to the recommended behaviors for everyone else.

Vital status might be a fuzzy concept. How many employees are needed to open the store? How many to keep the power grid up and running? Some things can continue short-handed, but how short is too short is a fuzzy question.

I sympathize with information providers. In the massive rush to educate everyone in zero time, it can be exceedingly difficult to mention that there are exceptions to every rule.

How do we assess the risk of overreaction compared to the risk of the virus? That's not an easy question.

 

[kadiot]

Is this the one built in 6 days?

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...2IV29MorVf76shvVnoyCnTbk57JkBlL1VXF8BJXLoKulw

 

[Jarvis323]

I sympathize with information providers. In the massive rush to educate everyone in zero time, it can be exceedingly difficult to mention that there are exceptions to every rule.

How do we assess the risk of overreaction compared to the risk of the virus? That's not an easy question.

You're talking about strategic misinformation, opaquness, or generally treating the public like children? I'm not really representative of the average US citizen, but so far efforts to control the message and flow of information have only made me feel more uneasy. People can do their own research nowadays. Lack of openness can lead to an erosion of credibility (not just to the public, but generally). The whole world is watching.

That said, it does seem a lot of people are buying it, and you're right that public awareness right now will lead to a worsened short term societal/economic impact. I'm seeing a whole lot of misleading reassuring memes, that's for sure, and a lot of people are not taking it seriously at all. Many of these people don't even know how to calculate a percentage, they just are afraid of fear, and will buy whatever people are selling if it makes them feel better.

However, mitigating the spread (at least slowing it down) should be the main priority now seeing as we are currently experiencing extremely critical supply shortages, and are already basically out of traditional quarantined beds for critically ill patients. Health care workers are now scrounging for masks, and implementing emergency rationing protocols. It seems that officials have been bungling the response left and right. If we don't start taking it seriously as a society, then the spread will just be that much harder to contain, and in the long term, the hospitals, health care workers, and their patients (of all kinds) will suffer that much more, and the panic we're trying to avoid will naturally get that much worse in response.

It will be really sad to see health care workers forced to treat COVID-19 patients without masks, and under faulty quarantine environments. But it will also be troubling to see people lose their homes, go into debt, or just forgo care altogether due to economic pressure.

I've always felt it prudent to keep enough food, water, and medical supplies on hand for a few weeks.

Is 2 weeks really enough though? Besides supply chain issues, if you get a cough and fever, you're supposed to self isolate for at least 2 weeks alone (even though you can likely be contagious for a month or so); not to say that most people who are infected are actually doing this though.

 

[anorlunda]

However, mitigating the spread (at least slowing it down) should be the main priority

That contradicts what I said, that food/water/power/... are more important than the virus. Perhaps you mean those things are too obvious to mention or too unshakable to have their supply threatened, but I think they do need explicit mention.

 

[Jarvis323]

That contradicts what I said, that food/water/power/... are more important than the virus. Perhaps you mean those things are too obvious to mention or too unshakable to have their supply threatened, but I think they do need explicit mention.

You're right, but the two are correlated. If we let it get worse, to try to keep the power on, then we have a harder time keeping the power on later. I think better containment earlier is favorable, since it is easier to slow down while it is still small, we have the possibility to ramp up manufacturing to meet shortages, and it is possible that warm weather will help.

I don't know what the solution is. The biggest crisis right now (I believe) is medical shortages, lack of suitable beds, and our generally fragile health care system. That's already a current crisis, and the spread in the US has basically just started.

 

[kadiot]

“What if there is a treatment candidate against the Coronavirus that might already be available and whose safety is already established?” - Dayrit and Newport

https://news.mb.com.ph/2020/02/24/s...dsQNSWgyUgZmxcJU6duP7Pk2DvstEtPT-UdZrDvEg1Cr8

 

[Dr. Courtney]

Is 2 weeks really enough though? Besides supply chain issues, if you get a cough and fever, you're supposed to self isolate for at least 2 weeks alone (even though you can likely be contagious for a month or so); not to say that most people who are infected are actually doing this though.

I should have been more explicit than "a few weeks" when it comes to emergency stocks of food, water, and medical supplies. In most of North America, 2-3 weeks has usually been enough when it comes to hurricanes and winter storms interrupting supply chains. But my preference is more toward 4-6 weeks, since I don't relish the thought of fighting the crowds trying to be in the front of the line when supply chains are re-established. 4-6 weeks also makes more sense for self-isolation in cases of infectious disease.

But if the only hit to supply chains is a sick person's ability to get to the grocery store, these days one can order up your groceries in many places and have them left on the porch with no risk of others catching the disease from you as long as you pay electronically and have zero contact in the process. The bigger challenge occurs is there is another hit to the normal supply chains at the same time. That's the more compelling motive to stock up for 4-6 weeks. (This also assumes the financial ability to pay a premium for delivery. Fresh groceries delivered are a lot more expensive than bulk rice and beans and canned veggies stocked in advance.)

 

[atyy]

Slowing the speed of spread of COVID19 is a public health issue. (See #502) But it is not priority 1. A higher priority than the virus is keeping people supplied with food, electricity, heat, health services, ... Employees vital to those things must be exceptions to the recommended behaviors for everyone else.

They are not exceptions to the recommendation that one should stay home if one is ill with cold-like or flu-like symptoms. If a "vital" person has the virus, he is exposing his "vital" co-workers to the virus. Perhaps the "vital" co-worker might have only a mild illness, but he could pass it to his elderly parents who might succumb to the virus. Hopefully, his job will then be considered so vital that he should do his job instead of attending to their funereal arrangements.

 

[mfb]

There may be additional obstacles.

I'm again puzzled how the US sees challenges that are a non-issue everywhere else. All the people who keep the European electricity grid, water, and all the other infrastructure running have paid sick leave. And you know what? We have fewer/shorter electricity outages than the US (don't have statistics for water, but I have never seen that being interrupted), and I don't think we had any outage that was caused by a lack of staff due to the flu.

 

[anorlunda]

I'm again puzzled how the US sees challenges that are a non-issue everywhere else. All the people who keep the European ...

We value freedom. Sometimes to our own detriment. Some Americans look upon Europeans as too willing to conform (to say it in a non-inflammatory way.)

They are not exceptions to the recommendation that one should stay home if one is ill with cold-like or flu-like symptoms.

Sorry, you're correct. I didn't explain myself well.

My comment was triggered by a TV report about panic buying at a Costco store. They interviewed the employees. The employees expressed concern at being forced to be in the middle of large crowds, and that they might phone in sick. So the sick pay issue applies to people who call in sick, but who aren't really sick.

The more scared people become, the more likely they are to stay home to protect themselves, rather than protect the public. It is like the pictures of empty sports stadiums in Europe during a game. Those 100000 sport fans weren't all sick, they were frightened or they were ordered to stay away.

Vital employees should be an exception to the avoid crowds rule.

I stand by my main point, is that I fear overreaction more than I fear the virus.

 

[mathwonk]

I made a small amount of reasonable hand sanitizer today by mixing a capful of isopropyl alcohol with a few squirts of hand lotion. It was kind of fun. We also went out to dinner at a favorite restaurant last night to give support to a business we knew would be having a slow day. Very few guests and easy parking for once. I hope this emergency increases support for paid sick leave for more of the workers whose businesses I frequent.

 

[anorlunda]

I made a small amount of reasonable hand sanitizer today by mixing a capful of isopropyl alcohol with a few squirts of hand lotion.

In the store today, I saw that rubbing alcohol was sold out, but there was plenty of hydrogen peroxide. I see that peroxide is listed as an antibacterial sanitize. Can we use peroxide to sanitize hands exposed to a virus?

 

[chirhone]

The unthinkable has happened. For over a month. Many friends and people thought somehow we wouldn't be affected either because of our unique weather, our recent volcano eruption which some hoped sterilizes the air, or grace from God.

But it happened. We have now confirmed local transmission. And we are in a state of emergency. Our official called it "Red Alert Sublevel-1". How many sublevels are there before it gets to level 1? Is it related to the Biohazard Sublevels in Ebola?

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/03/07/20/code-red-philippines-coronavirus-cases-rise-to-6-doh-confirms-local-transmission

"In the event of a sustained community transmission or an increasing number of local cases whose links cannot be established, Duque said the strategy will be shifted from an intensive contact tracing to the implementation of community-level quarantine or lockdown and/or possibly, suspension of work or school."

Now is the time to be prepared. One must at least secure the doors because in days to come, the most important commodities would be bottles of water, toilet paper, sugar, alcohol, masks, etc. Our water supply system is so dirty we can't drink it.

Next week. I need to acquire license for military grade armors and weaponry. I don't even own a gun! Many of you own shotguns. The battle has begin. We don't have the discipline of a Wuhan style calm lockdown, but more of aggressive type due to our $7 a day income for millions (imagine Syrian uprising).

Our comforting thoughts is that whatever happens. Humanity will not perish. I heard Antartica is still uncontaminated by it. And it is a big place and perhaps a safe place to survive the contagion. (I just acquire the movie Contagion and will watch it today).

 

[Mary Conrads Sanburn]

Editors, USA TODAY

Published 4:22 a.m. ET March 7, 2020 | Updated 6:57 a.m. ET March 7, 2020

Coronavirus outbreak: Concerns mount after positive tests on cruise ship

The Princess Cruises' Grand Princess cruise ship off the coast of California will dock this weekend in a "non-commercial port" to combat the spread of coronavirus, according to Vice President Mike Pence. Speaking at the White House Friday evening, Pence said 21 people aboard the ship tested positive for the virus. In a video obtained by USA TODAY, the Grand Princess captain can be heard saying the people infected on board "will continue to stay quarantined in their staterooms," until they can be transferred to hospitals onshore. As it stands, the U.S. has confirmed 310 cases of COVID-19 while at least 14 people in the U.S. and more than 3,400 people globally have died from the virus. Indiana, Kentucky, Minnesota, Nebraska, South Carolina, Oklahoma and Hawaii reported their first cases of the Coronavirus Friday, bring the total number of states with cases to 27.

https://www.app.com/story/news/2020...rnational-womens-day-harry-meghan/4965270002/

I think Port Chicago - Marine Ocean Terminal might be where the "Princess Cruises' Grand Princess cruise ship off the coast of California." My husband and I take trips there with our dog Gracie but recently they have closed that area.

 

[atyy]

In the store today, I saw that rubbing alcohol was sold out, but there was plenty of hydrogen peroxide. I see that peroxide is listed as an antibacterial sanitize. Can we use peroxide to sanitize hands exposed to a virus?

Probably yes, at high enough concentration and if you leave it on long enough.
https://www.journalofhospitalinfection.com/article/S0195-6701(20)30046-3/pdf

However, washing with soap and water is simple and effective. Just make sure you lather and scrub well for at least 20 seconds before washing the soap off with water. The virus has a lipid envelope which is disrupted by soapy solution after several minutes (1000x reduction), although not quite as good as 70% alcohol which is more effective after 30 seconds (10000x reduction). One usually does not wash one's hands for minutes, but combined with the mechanical removal of dirt, handwashing is excellent.
https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/41/7/e67/310340

I recommend getting your personal moisturizer, since frequent hand-washing leads to dry and cracked skin.
https://academic.oup.com/occmed/article/68/5/340/4993549
http://www3.ohsonline.com/Articles/...-from-Occupational-Skin-Disorders.aspx?Page=3

Of course, wash the moisturizer bottle first (in case the bottle is dirty), then wash your hands, then apply the moisturizer.