COVID COVID-19 Coronavirus Containment Efforts

AI Thread Summary
Containment efforts for the COVID-19 Coronavirus are facing significant challenges, with experts suggesting that it may no longer be feasible to prevent its global spread. The virus has a mortality rate of approximately 2-3%, which could lead to a substantial increase in deaths if it becomes as widespread as the flu. Current data indicates around 6,000 cases, with low mortality rates in areas with good healthcare. Vaccine development is underway, but it is unlikely to be ready in time for the current outbreak, highlighting the urgency of the situation. As the outbreak evolves, the healthcare system may face considerable strain, underscoring the need for continued monitoring and response efforts.
  • #1,901
TeethWhitener said:
Realized by whom?

Looking at the stats, and seeing interviews with doctors treating this, it seems having other diseases like Diabetes, or auto-immune diseases (I know recent research suggests Diabetes is an auto-immune disease) is a big risk factor in death rate. Is the the higher death rate in older people just because they are more likely to have other conditions as well? I noticed one set of statistics that showed if you are lucky enough to be over 60 without any conditions (eg about 50% over 65 have pre-diabetes) then the death rate is just .9%. So what is the cause of increased death rate - age or underlying conditions?

Thanks
Bill
 
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  • #1,902
Another unexpected consequence of this virus is the shutting down of labs. My son-in-law is a medical researcher at a major university. He was forced to shut his lab. He had to euthanize all his test animals some of which were specially bred for his research. This will cost him time and money If it hasn't scuttled the projects.
 
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  • #1,903
kyphysics said:
Given the that we have a vaccine and treatment for the common flu, why do so many still die each year in the U.S.? 35,000 this flu season.

Many people are so silly they do not get vaccinated. But even if they did its effectiveness relies on guessing the strains that will be going around during flu season.

Thanks
Bill
 
  • #1,904
bhobba said:
Many people are so silly they do not get vaccinated.
Right. It's over 40% on average (that don't) and in some communities it's much higher.

I think "silly" is an understatement.
 
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  • #1,905
I have a question, if our body builds up an immunity to a virus and then we get exposed to it again later would there still be some symptoms?
 
  • #1,906
CAL Alumni Association
UC Berkley

The Do's and Donts: Health Experts Answers Your COVID Questions
By Leah Washington


By Leah Worthington
On Wednesday, March 25, Michael Lu, Dean of the UC Berkeley School of Public Health, hosted a virtual Q&A, “Coronavirus: Facts and Fears,” open to the public. For 90 minutes, experts from the school and other campus health services responded to listeners’ day-to-day fears and practical concerns about navigating life during the pandemic.
Participants include: Dr. Anna Harte (Medical Director of University Health Services), Dr. Nicholas Jewell (Professor of Biostatistics at Berkeley Public Health), Dr. Arthur Reingold (Professor, Division Head of Epidemiology and Biostatistics at Berkeley Public Health), Dr. Lee Riley (Professor, Chair of Infectious Diseases and Vaccinology at Berkeley Public Health), and Dr. John Swartzberg (Clinical Professor, Emeritus at Berkeley Public Health and Chair of UC Berkeley Health & Wellness Publications).

California magazine tuned in for the session. This conversation has been edited for length and clarity.
What can the general public do right now to help?
Anna Harte:
Avoid getting infected! Take care of yourself. If you’re sick, call ahead before showing up at the clinic/hospital. Don’t hoard protective health supplies and other things. Donate masks, hand sanitizer, etc. Look up how to donate online or call your public health official.
Is there any truth to the following: People with certain blood types are more susceptible? The virus can’t survive in warm climates, under UV, in windy areas, or in refrigerators (like on contaminated milk cartons)?
Arthur Reingold:
There was a study from China that says blood group A is slightly more represented in Coronavirus patients. I personally, as blood group A, am not worried. Is there a biological reason for this? I’m not sure. It’s plausible, but I don’t think anyone from blood group A needs to do anything different.
To the climate question: We’re waiting to see. We have cases around the world and in the southern hemisphere where it’s a different season. Admittedly, we haven’t seen large outbreaks from tropical regions. I don’t know. I think we’re all waiting to see.
Lee Riley: I think Art is right, we are beginning to see increasing cases in the Southern Hemisphere. For example, Brazil is really coming up rapidly. They’ve instituted school closings and are closing bars and restaurants, and restricting work. They have over 2,000 cases and 77 deaths.* But the reason we are seeing this is because Brazil has the ability to do the testing, while other countries may not.
To the UV question: Yes UV will kill coronaviruses. The wind? I don’t know how, biologically, that would happen. To the refrigerators question: If it’s not exposed to any detergents or anti-infectives, it would probably survive.

How should one handle fresh produce/groceries?

LR:
A study recently looked at inanimate objects and surfaces. The virus was able to survive a few hours on cardboard, on plastic surfaces for up to 3 days, on steel surfaces less, and on copper surfaces even less. I would say there is some duration of survival on these surfaces. From these fruit markets and produce stands, they’re probably washed and that would kill the virus. But if people are eating the produce uncooked, they should probably wash it, preferably with something containing detergent. If the water in your house is chlorinated that would probably suffice.

How do I minimize my exposure while hiking outside, visiting a park, or passing someone on a narrow trail? How long are droplets suspended?

LR:
If you’re outdoors and it’s a sunny day, the virus will probably be killed immediately by the UV light. Outdoors it’s highly unlikely that the virus will be transmitted. I guess if someone is coughing and passes by really closely on a trail, it’s possible.

In still air, the virus can remain suspended for up to three hours. If you’re in a room and walk in after somebody has been coughing, it’s possible you could get infected.

John Swartzberg: You have to have substantial exposure to someone within a close proximity to really be infected.

Is it ok to bring in my newspaper from outside? Do I need to clean it?

JS:
That’s a difficult one. I’m of the belief that the most important way this virus spreads is through droplets when in close proximity to others. I don’t have enough science to support what I’m saying. So we have to be careful with everything conceivable at this point.

Is six feet of space enough if I’m walking side-by-side with friends, hiking at a distance, passing people on the street, etc?

AR:
My own view is that 6 feet is plenty.

[ . . . ]

###
https://alumni.berkeley.edu/california-magazine/just-in/2020-03-27/dos-and-donts-health-experts-answer-your-covid-questions

The article is very long. It's worth the read!
 
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  • #1,907
Astronuc said:
Back on March 4 - Just a day after a Westchester County man was confirmed as New York’s second case of the new coronavirus, the authorities revealed on Wednesday just how readily it was spreading, saying that nine people connected to the man had all tested positive.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/04/nyregion/coronavirus-nyc-yeshiva-university.html

Wednesday, March 11, 2020
https://abc7ny.com/5995537/
Wednesday, March 18, 2020
https://abc7ny.com/6025403/
NEW ROCHELLE, Westchester County (WABC) -- The wife of a critically ill 50-year-old New Rochelle lawyer connected to a cluster of Coronavirus cases gave a promising update on his health on Wednesday.

Adina Garbuz said in a Facebook post that her husband Lawrence Garbuz is "awake and alert and seems to be on the road to recovery" after being in critical condition with COVID-19 for a number of weeks.

Adina Garbuz was also infected with COVID-19, along with her two children and neighbor, as well as one of her husband's friends and members of that man's family.

Ms. Garbuz indicated that she and other family members did not have severe symptoms.

March 29, 2020 - Lawyer at Center of Earliest NY Coronavirus Cluster Goes Home From Hospital
https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/loc...irus-cluster-goes-home-from-hospital/2349575/
New York State has now seen 965 coronavirus-related deaths, Cuomo said — up from 728 on Saturday. As of 9:30 a.m. Sunday, 32,308 people in New York City had tested positive for the novel coronavirus, and 678 people had died — up by six from Saturday, according to city data.

That total includes 6,145 in the Bronx, 8,451 in Brooklyn, 5,438 in Manhattan, 10,373 in Queens, 1,866 on Staten Island and 35 from "unknown" locations, the data shows. Forty five percent of those who tested positive were under the age of 45.

New Jersey, meanwhile, saw 2,262 new cases from Saturday into Sunday, bringing the state's total to 13,386. A total of 161 people in the state had died as of 1:30 p.m. Sunday, up from 140 on Saturday.
Today, NY state confirms 59513 positive cases (965 deaths) with 33768 cases in NY City and 8519 in Westchester County. There are more than 2000 serious cases in NY State alone.March 3, 2020
https://www.infectiousdiseaseadviso...nyc-first-death-reported-in-washington-state/
In a separate case, "the first case of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) as a result of infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was confirmed in New York City by Governor Andrew M Cuomo, on Sunday March 1, 2020.

The patient, a woman aged 39 years, was a healthcare worker and is believed to have contracted the infection while traveling in Iran. She returned from Iran a week before diagnosis with COVID-19 and began experiencing respiratory symptoms. "

There were subsequently other cases showing up in early March of people returning from Italy and Egypt.

Back in January - New York City bracing for almost certain arrival of Wuhan coronavirus
https://www.politico.com/states/new...-certain-arrival-of-wuhan-coronavirus-1254916

In a bizarre juxtaposition, on January 31 - You can buy a flight from Hong Kong to New York for $201. The catch? You have to stop in Wuhan for 6 hours.
https://www.businessinsider.com/wuhan-coronavirus-hong-kong-new-york-flight-discount-stopover-2020-1
Bloomberg and Time reported tickets at $193
Bloomberg, January 30 - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ra-cheap-flights-to-u-s-with-layover-in-wuhan
Time, January 31 - https://time.com/5775158/hong-kong-to-new-york-flight-wuhan/
 
  • #1,908
Just an update about Australia. The latest is:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...l-distancing-parks-beaches-shut-latest-update

This got me a bit 'mad'. Australians already must stay home except for essential shopping, work or school that cannot be done remotely, seeking medical services or exercising outdoors with no more than one other person. But the new rules say people aged over 70, people aged over 60 with chronic illness and indigenous Australians over 50 with chronic illness must not leave home, however it is not mandatory. It's not fully detailed in the above, and simply says 'strongly advised to stay home' which is of course redundant considering what all Australians must do. That group, of which I am one, needs to go shopping, attend medical appointments etc just the same as anyone else. In my case I need to see a physio once a week, and see doctors and various specialists, about once every two weeks. So exactly what are they saying? The nearest I can figure is people in that group should pay particular attention to what everyone is supposed to do anyway. So why not just say that?

Thanks
Bill
 
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  • #1,909
I notice there is still a major discrepancy in the death rate for the USA and Germany, as compared with other western countries that are suffering from a large number of cases. Italy and Spain are already very bad and I can't see any hope for the UK not to suffer to the same extent. It's only a matter of time.

What's the prognosis for the USA and Germany? Is it expected that the death rate can be kept relatively low? How are the health services coping?
 
  • #1,911
kyphysics said:
The mortality rate can't be right. Looks like another case of confusing IFR with CFR.
 
  • #1,912
Bystander said:
Have the "Just in Time Business Models" come home to "roost?"

They were big where I used to work. I never believed in them then, nor did they work. I still do not believe in them now, nor do I think the outcome will be any different.

Thanks
Bill
 
  • #1,913
Bandersnatch said:
The mortality rate can't be right. Looks like another case of confusing IFR with CFR.
Apologies for not understanding the abbreviations. What did IFR and CFR stand for again?
 
  • #1,914
kyphysics said:
What did IFR and CFR stand for again?
Case Fatality Rate - the likelihood a person diagnosed with the viral infection will die
Infection Fatality Rate - the likelihood a person will die after contracting the virus (whether diagnosed or not)

Since most infections are mild and go unreported, the former is higher than the latter.
It looks like the table reports CFR for the novel coronavirus, and IFR for the influenza.
 
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  • #1,915
IFR - infection fatality rate
CFR - case fatality ratio
:smile:
 
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  • #1,916
US considers quarantine for New York, but doesn't implement it for now.
kolleamm said:
I have a question, if our body builds up an immunity to a virus and then we get exposed to it again later would there still be some symptoms?
Too early to tell.

----

Italy's case count is approaching 100,000. They keep finding 5000-6000 cases per day.

Italy.png
 
  • #1,917
mfb said:
That sounds very questionable. A cure for everything? Do they have a publication about that, or just the claims of the doctors who want to sell it?
I agree with you. We know that the whole world is hoping for prevention and cure. However, unless something has gone through the process of rigorous testing for safety and efficacy involving a huge sample size, claims like this must be taken with sobriety and much critical thinking.

I did some google research and found out these patent applications.

https://patents.google.com/patent/WO2016053121A1/en

Again.. applications. I understand that the process is long and requires test subjects.
 
  • #1,918
PeroK said:
I notice there is still a major discrepancy in the death rate for the USA and Germany, as compared with other western countries that are suffering from a large number of cases. Italy and Spain are already very bad and I can't see any hope for the UK not to suffer to the same extent. It's only a matter of time.

What's the prognosis for the USA and Germany? Is it expected that the death rate can be kept relatively low? How are the health services coping?
A news report broadcast briefly explained that they are more physically fit and so recover better from the infection. This also meant/means, fewer die.
 
  • #1,919
This might interest those who would like to study the available pharmacological data around covid-19.

https://www.ashp.org/-/media/assets/pharmacy-practice/resource-centers/Coronavirus/docs/ASHP-COVID-19-Evidence-Table.ashx?la=en&hash=B414CC64FD64E1AE8CA47AD753BA744EDF4FFB8C&fbclid=IwAR0ps08aU6CzahkGm8q6Iw60XmVuTWPLBnNF1MsUchtPvU_6p2xDpodWV_w
 
  • #1,922
COVID-19 and the Risk to Health Care Workers: A Case Report
Kangqi Ng, MBBS; Beng Hoong Poon, MBBS, MPH, MMed (Family Med); Troy Hai Kiat Puar, MBBS; Jessica Li Shan Quah, MBBS; Wann Jia Loh, MBBS; Yu Jun Wong, MD; Thean Yen Tan, MBBCh; Jagadesan Raghuram, MB BCh BAO
https://annals.org/aim/fullarticle/2763329/covid-19-risk-health-care-workers-case-report

"Objective: To describe the clinical outcome of health care workers who took care of a patient with severe pneumonia before the diagnosis of COVID-19 was known."

"In the situation we describe, 85% of health care workers were exposed during an aerosol-generating procedure exposed while wearing a surgical mask, and the remainder were wearing N95 masks. That none of the health care workers in this situation acquired infection suggests that surgical masks, hand hygiene, and other standard procedures protected them from being infected. Our observation is consistent with previous studies that have been unable to show that N95 masks were superior to surgical masks for preventing influenza infection in health care workers"
 
  • #1,923
kolleamm said:
I have a question, if our body builds up an immunity to a virus and then we get exposed to it again later would there still be some symptoms?

Generally, it is thought that you will not get symptoms the second time round when you have immunity (almost by definition). However, in many cases immunity does wear off after some time. Also, if you get exposed to a variant of the virus, the immunity you have may not apply to a different variant of the virus.

An interesting example is chicken pox, which is caused by a virus. Generally, after getting chicken pox once, you cannot get it again, as you have immunity. However, the virus can lie dormant in your nerves, and cause shingles later on in life. https://www.webmd.com/vaccines/features/shingles-chickenpox#1
 
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  • #1,924
atyy said:
Coronavirus Kent: Shopper spotted wearing Stormtrooper mask in Sittingbourne Asda during Covid-19 outbreak
https://www.kentonline.co.uk/sittin...ted-wearing-stormtrooper-mask-in-asda-224071/

It should work against droplets, which are thought to be the main mode of Covid-19 transmission. It's also washable and re-useable.
Imagine all people around the world going outside wearing Stormtrooper masks. :biggrin: Then the Empire will really be striking back!
 
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  • #1,925
Simulations of an epidemic
This video I found interesting on effects of what travel, social distancing, central market, isolation can do to the spread of a disease.
Courtesy of 3Blue1Brown
 
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  • #1,926
symbolipoint said:
A news report broadcast briefly explained that they are more physically fit and so recover better from the infection. This also meant/means, fewer die.
That seems to me a highly implausible answer.
 
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  • #1,927
PeroK said:
I notice there is still a major discrepancy in the death rate for the USA and Germany, as compared with other western countries that are suffering from a large number of cases. Italy and Spain are already very bad and I can't see any hope for the UK not to suffer to the same extent. It's only a matter of time.

What's the prognosis for the USA and Germany? Is it expected that the death rate can be kept relatively low? How are the health services coping?

A current hypothesis:
 
  • #1,928
peanut said:
I did some google research and found out these patent applications.
That means even less. Not even a granted patent means anything.
You can get a patent to cure all types of cancer with a mixture of 30% rice and 70% carrots. Seriously. Just apply in the US and it will fulfill all three required criteria:
- it is new
- it claims to do something
- it is not trivial
Note the absence of a point where you would have to show that it actually works. Some more discussion here
Be careful with sources here, please, especially with medical claims.

------

Not so good news from other places:

Coronavirus cluster emerges at another South Korean church, as others press ahead with Sunday services
Was the big outbreak caused by the other church not bad enough? Or the new cluster started by this church? Is there really a need to start yet another outbreak by yet another church?Tokyo's official numbers rise quickly after Olympics are officially postponed
[Prime Minister Abe] said a state of emergency is not needed just yet, but that Japan could at any time face a situation as bad as in the United States or Europe.
That's the same mistake that lead to the situation in Europe and the US. Do nothing and wait for a miracle to happen. There won't be a miracle. Waiting just spreads the disease more.
 
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  • #1,929
https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-03-29/coronavirus-choir-outbreak
LA Times, March 29, 2020 - In Skagit County, Washington, 60 people went to choir practice on March 10. Members were offered hand sanitizer at the door, and people refrained from handshakes and hugs (but not known if this was 100%). The practice lasted 2.5 hours.

First illnesses appear three days later on March 13. Three of four of two couples began to show symptoms of infection; the fourth first felt ill two days later. In the following days, more choir members became ill, as did some of their contacts.

Three weeks later, 45 choir members have tested positive for COVID-19 or are ill with symptoms (implies some not tested yet?), three are hospitalized and two are dead. According to the LA Times, eight people present at the choir practice maintain that no one was coughing or sneezing, which would imply 'respiratory droplets'. However, it appears that normal singing, or perhaps normal chorale singing with 'voice projection' is enough to release the virus.

This event indicates that the virus is highly transmissible through the air, and it does not require an infected person to be sneezing or coughing.

Edit - this story had me thinking about the attorney in New Rochelle, NY, who commuted from New Rochelle to New York City where he passed through Grand Central Station on the way to his office near GCS. I've done that many times myself for meetings in NY City, and people walk briskly from the train through the station and out to parts of the city, and some head to the subways for further parts. Breathing heavily would push out the virus to those one is passing, who are also rushing and breathing deeply. Many people who are infected apparently don't know they are. This also points to the importance of wearing a mask (preferably N95) in public to avoid expressing the virus and to mitigate inhaling the virus.

Edit/update - On March 26, Mike Baker (NY Times) reported about the Skagit Valley Chorale. Ruth Backlund, a co-president at the Skagit Valley Chorale, said “Nobody was sick. Nobody touched anybody. Nobody shook hands. Nobody hugged everybody like you might do in a group. There was none of that.”
The story would seem to confirm airborne transmission without coughing or sneezing, and whoever brought the infection along did not realize they were infected.
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/c...0-people-show-up-for-practice-now-45-are-sick
 
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  • #1,930
Bad and good news from Spain:

Spain has now passed China in number of cases, and is now third on the list of countries with most infections ( which is 1. USA, 2. Italy, 3. Spain, 4. China).

I checked the "daily increase" tab for Spain on the COVID-19 dashboard and it seems the number of daily increases are going down; the number has steadily gone down from 9'600 to 6'900 (ca) during the last five days.

But I should add that I am not aware of the testing policies in Spain. One big, or more correctly, giant difficulty with all numbers of cases is of course that they are so dependent on the level of testing that is done in each country (or each region etc). If let's say, the testing for some reason is decreased it would be natural to see a decrease in the number of confirmed cases, which may not reflect the number of actual cases.

Sources:
Good news from Europe, though most likely temporary:
 
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  • #1,931
Astronuc said:
https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-03-29/coronavirus-choir-outbreak
LA Times, March 29, 2020 - In Skagit County, Washington, 60 people went to choir practice on March 10. Members were offered hand sanitizer at the door, and people refrained from handshakes and hugs (but not known if this was 100%). The practice lasted 2.5 hours.

First illnesses appear three days later on March 13...

Three weeks later, 45 chioir members have tested positive for COVID-19 or are ill with symptoms (implies some not tested yet?), three are hospitalized and two are dead.
Wow. This has me nervous about even going to the grocery store!
 
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  • #1,932
russ_watters said:
Wow. This has me nervous about even going to the grocery store!

I try to avoid it, but there is only so much you can do eg I buy subway salads in lots of 3 or 4 so you only go every few days - not every day. It can be reduced, but I see no way it can be eliminated.

Thanks
Bill
 
  • #1,933
russ_watters said:
Wow. This has me nervous about even going to the grocery store!
Some stores have home delivery (in my area anyway) and some have "curbside pickup" where you don't have to go into the store. You should check in your area.
 
  • #1,934
russ_watters said:
Wow. This has me nervous about even going to the grocery store!

I suggest you can go to the store, but don't get involved in any supermarket singalongs! Seriously, going to the store must be a low risk activity with the measures in place and the few people you go anywhere near. Compared with say a typical day at work before lockdown, where you might be in close contact with hundreds of people per day.

The difference between lockdown and total isolation must be so small that it's a diminishing return to isolate yourself any further. Unless, of course, you think you've actually got the virus.

To extract ourselves from this we are all going to have to balance risk with rationality. We can't even stay in lockdown indefinitely, let alone total isolation.
 
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  • #1,935
What are the reasons why someone infected with Covid-19 produces a false-negative result?
 
  • #1,936
Antibody tests are arriving:
Germany could issue thousands of people Coronavirus 'immunity certificates' so they can leave the lockdown early
researchers at the Helmholtz Centre for Infection Research in Braunschweig want to send out hundreds of thousands of antibody tests over the coming weeks that could allow people to break free of the lockdowns, Der Spiegel reported on Friday.
If the project is approved, the researchers will test 100,000 people at a time starting in early April, Der Spiegel said.
Antibodies -> good to go
It will also give a better estimate how many people had contact with the virus so far.

Germany's new case count had an odd pattern in the past, that made it hard to interpret, but it might have stabilized, too.

germany.png
 
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  • #1,937
peanut said:
What are the reasons why someone infected with Covid-19 produces a false-negative result?
One reason, I'm lead to believe, is that the method of gathering the sample is a tad invasive and uncomfortable. You need to shove a swab pretty far up your nose, up into your sinus cavity. If you don't get it up there just right, it might produce a false negative.

Another possibility is testing too early, before incubation has taken effect.

There are probably some other reasons.

[Btw, this refers the antigen test, not the antibody test.]
 
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  • #1,939
PeroK said:
That seems to me a highly implausible answer.
Someone posted a New York Times article earlier that asked your original question.

Germany Has Relatively Few Deaths From Coronavirus. Why?
March 28, 2020​

I liked the answers I saw.
ie, they seemed very plausible.

Both early testing and incubation of the virus among the young go part of the way in explaining why the country’s fatality rate is so comparatively low. “It’s how much and whom we test,” Martin Stürmer, a virologist who is the director of a lab that is running Coronavirus testing in Frankfurt, told me. In general, countries that test less and reserve it for those already very ill, like Italy, have higher fatality rates.

In other words, Germany has a lower death rate because they've tested more people.

It’s quite possible that Germany is just behind the curve.

This is, in my opinion, based on the following graph I plotted yesterday, is 100% accurate:

DE vs US Covid19 deaths 2020-03-30 at 11.57.12 AM.png

[source numbers are from github]

I've been trying, unsuccessfully, to mathematically hand model an epidemic to try and reconcile why the "case fatality rates" are so nonsensical. After seeing the following statement in the article, I've decided to give up.

On average, a severely ill Covid-19 patient dies 30 days after being infected.

If the following graphs don't make sense, don't blame me, as I only plotted the numbers.

DE vs US CFRs 2020-03-30 at 12.25.57 PM.png
 
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  • #1,940
OmCheeto said:
Someone posted a New York Times article earlier that asked your original question.

Germany Has Relatively Few Deaths From Coronavirus. Why?
March 28, 2020​

I liked the answers I saw.
ie, they seemed very plausible.

Both early testing and incubation of the virus among the young go part of the way in explaining why the country’s fatality rate is so comparatively low. “It’s how much and whom we test,” Martin Stürmer, a virologist who is the director of a lab that is running Coronavirus testing in Frankfurt, told me. In general, countries that test less and reserve it for those already very ill, like Italy, have higher fatality rates.

In other words, Germany has a lower death rate because they've tested more people.

The numbers are quite stark now, if we believe them: 11,591 deaths in Italy against 560 in Germany. That said, Spain, France, the UK and Netherlands are all commensurate with Italy (if we believe the total case numbers by country).

The USA, which has relatively few deaths, may be behind the curve as their case numbers have exploded in the last week or so.
 
  • #1,941
phinds said:
Some stores have home delivery (in my area anyway) and some have "curbside pickup" where you don't have to go into the store. You should check in your area.

Although, you'd still have to trust the person packing your order, no? I.e., are they COVID-19 positive? Did they wash/sanitize their hands?
 
  • #1,942
kyphysics said:
Although, you'd still have to trust the person packing your order, no? I.e., are they COVID-19 positive? Did they wash/sanitize their hands?
So you wash the perishables and put the non-perishables in the garage for three days to sanitize.

Then remove clothing in a designated area, wash hands and/or take a shower after unpacking. My sister works in a bio lab and clued me to some things.
 
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More on the lack of containment and control - or how to spread a virus:
March 23 - https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/23/us/coronavirus-westport-connecticut-party-zero.html
About 50 guests gathered on March 5 (Thursday) at a home in the stately suburb of Westport, Conn., to toast the hostess on her 40th birthday and greet old friends, including one visiting from South Africa. They shared reminiscences, a lavish buffet and, unknown to anyone, the coronavirus.
Someone brought the virus to the party, maybe one of those who became ill, or maybe one who hasn't shown symptoms.

After the party, the partygoers scattered.
The partygoers — more than half of whom are now infected — left that evening for Johannesburg, New York City and other parts of Connecticut and the United States, all seeding infections on the way.

Westport, a town of 28,000 on the Long Island Sound, did not have a single known case of the Coronavirus on the day of the party [March 5]. It had 85 on Monday (March 23), up more than 40-fold in 11 days.

the Westport soirée “may be an example of the kind of thing we call a super-spreading event,” said William Hanage, an associate professor of epidemiology at Harvard, especially since some of the partygoers later attended large social events in the New York metropolitan area.
“Some of the early cases in Northern Italy were associated with small towns, and people thought, ‘Oh, it’s just in the small towns.’ But then you suddenly find cases emerging from Milan Fashion Week and spreading internationally,” Dr. Hanage said. “Everywhere you think the virus is, it’s ahead of you."

The visitor from Johannesburg — a 43-year-old businessman, according to a report from South Africa — fell ill on his flight home, . . . That fact didn't get back to Westport, CT until March 11.

Meanwhile, on March 8, another guest became ill. At noon on March 8, town and county health officials convened a Coronavirus forum at the Westport Library. “It is not out in our community that we’re aware of yet,” said Mark A.R. Cooper, the director of the Westport Weston Health District. “Give it some thought, but again, your risk is low.” But the virus was already circulating in the community.

By March 23, Westport, with less than 1 percent of the state’s population, now then more than one-fifth of its Covid-19 infections, with 85 cases. Fairfield County, where Westport is, had 270 cases, 65 percent of the state’s total.

As of March 29, a total of 908 of those cases are in Fairfield County (59.5 percent of the 1,524 positive cases of the novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) in Connecticut).
https://dailyvoice.com/connecticut/...-town-rundown-of-cases-other-key-info/785760/

https://dailyvoice.com/connecticut/danbury/news/covid-19-danbury-now-has-218-cases/785829/

https://www.wfsb.com/news/the-latest-more-than-covid--cases-deaths/article_54edec52-67ad-11ea-8482-877cb5d00dcd.html
As of March 30, Monday, The number of confirmed cases stood at 2,571 on Monday afternoon (an increase of 1047 cases in one day), according to Gov. Ned Lamont. Thirty-six deaths were also reported.
 
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I drove to the solid waste (garbage and recycle) disposal site today, but it was closed. Seems the county closed all such sites last week, even though the governor listed residential waste disposal as an "essential" function during the emergency. A little puzzling since at least recycle dropoff involves no human contact. One is apparently expected to arrange "curbside pickup" suddenly, but we live on a private road a ways off the county thoroughfare, (no curbs), and the one private pickup company for this rural area is overwhelmed with signup requests this week. Oops. How is this going in rural Georgia?
 
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PeroK said:
I suggest you can go to the store,

Yes it is low risk, but at least here in Aus they still ask you to try and minimise leaving the house, which I do.

Saw my doctor today for a Flu shot, and he was more worried about me seeing my physio since they are not wearing face masks (short supply - more needed by emergency doctors - even he is not wearing one). But then again my physio keeps his distance and just guides me through the exercises, but there are some moments he gets close, such as when he attaches weights. Still to be as safe as possible I am reducing my physio to once a fortnight instead of once a week. When the pandemic is under control/over will increase it again and can rebuild any muscle that atrophied. As my doctor said their are many things we can't or should not eliminate, but can reduce - in fact we are all required (and when I say require - I mean by law - they now have police enforcing it and handing out fines) to reduce leaving the house as much as possible. It's not total lockdown - yet - but may end up that way.

The bureaucracy is, how to put it nicely, still learning. Check this one out from a doctor who was with a croup of other doctors:
https://glenlo.wordpress.com/2020/03/29/we-were-allowed-to-leave/

Don't you love it how one doctor (she is what's called a PHO which simply means she works in a hospital), using the authority they have as a registered doctor, who has not seen or examined the other doctor, is satisfied, because of the way he behaves, he is a public health risk. I wonder if the doctor who the order was issued on, could return the favor, using his power as a registered doctor to do the same to the other doctor? To make matters worse, a number of other doctors this order was issued on were urgently needed respiratory specialists. The mind boggles.

BTW they were returning from the Antarctic - sure there is a lot of Covid down there. To be fair they did return via the Falklands, that while they have no cases yet, may have a possible case that could be confirmed in a week o0)o0)o0)

Of course the obvious answer was for someone with a few brains to recognise these are all registered doctors, and will do the right thing, such as isolate for at least two weeks etc etc, and let them go to where their expertise will undoubtedly be needed. Like I said a few bureaucratic kinks need to be ironed out.

Thanks
Bill
 
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Italy could approach the peak of active cases, making it the third country with a larger outbreak to do so (after China and South Korea):

Italy.png
 
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mfb said:
Antibody tests are arriving:
Germany could issue thousands of people Coronavirus 'immunity certificates' so they can leave the lockdown earlyAntibodies -> good to go
It will also give a better estimate how many people had contact with the virus so far.

Germany's new case count had an odd pattern in the past, that made it hard to interpret, but it might have stabilized, too.

View attachment 259650
Can Covid-19 antibody test be used as a standalone test to definitively diagnose Covid-19? Are they being used for mass testing in other countries?
 
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For those who are interested and know something about drones can help humanity during COVID outbreak. As I see FlytNow giving away it's Pro version of the product for free to fight Coronavrius thing.

User can learn more about and register for free here https://flytnow.com/drones-for-coronavirus/
 
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peanut said:
Can Covid-19 antibody test be used as a standalone test to definitively diagnose Covid-19? Are they being used for mass testing in other countries?

There is some report of that in Japan. But not confirmed.
 
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