COVID COVID-19 Coronavirus Containment Efforts

[atyy]

China has reported no new cases due to community spread for 2 days (new cases are arrivals from other countries). If this can be sustained for 14 days, they may gradually lift the lockdown in Wuhan, though many other measures will remain in place.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/world/wuhans-new-virus-cases-set-to-dry-up/news-story/2a9aa90cf0d8c22fe514f52b28d0dddb
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...s-could-cease-by-mid-late-march-idUSKBN21608U

Interestingly to me the article cites remarks by Li Lanjuan, director of China’s State Key Laboratory for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases. This seems to be in Zhejiang. https://www.zju.edu.cn/english/2018/0520/c19974a812273/page.htm

Is that a contributor to why Zhejiang has so far managed to keep their death rate low (currently 1 death in about 1200 cases, with 14 active cases)?

 

[phinds]

One millions dollars is really nothing compared to the money the federal government has

Yes, even $100 million, which is what it was, is far less than the government is likely to contribute, but it's still a lot of money.

 

[bhobba]

Flu is widespread only in cold places. Wuhan, UK? But I think Iran is always summer? So COVID-19 explosion in poplution indeed knows no climate?

In north Queensland its tropical and they get the flu just as bad as anywhere else in Australia - even in summer. I got flu in the summer down in Canberra, which can be cold, but at that time was getting 40 degree Celsius days. Flu is not a respecter of hot or cold. During cold weather you tend, in more temperate climates, to be more indoors and closer together, so tropical places do not have it as bad - but people visiting from where its cold imports it and you still get a spike during winter.

Thanks
Bill

 

[bhobba]

I haven't been in one of my offices for over two weeks. Today, my boss called me to say that there was a confirmed case in the building (one floor below ours) and that I might need to come into take care of a code problem. Really.

IT managers, don't you love em. I was told by a friend their place of employ had the view managing was the same regardless of what is managed and in put a non IT person to manage them. They left on stress leave after 3 months because they could not understand why the tech people kept on saying you can't do that.

Thanks
Bill

 

[Ygggdrasil]

Regarding the deployment of the National Guard:

Though the governor has activated the Illinois National Guard to help combat the virus, the service members will have no role in enforcing any potential order. Pritzker said irresponsible social media users, as well as Russian and Chinese meddlers, spread unfounded rumors about the Guard being deployed to enforce a quarantine.

In reality, 60 service members will be used to establish drive-up testing sites, help with food delivery to disadvantaged families impacted by school closures and possibly prepare closed hospitals to reopen. The vast majority of currently activated troops are health care professionals — doctors, nurses, medical technicians — who would not be tapped for a law-enforcement assignment.

https://www.chicagotribune.com/coro...0200320-teedakbfw5gvdgmnaxlel54hau-story.html

See also https://www.chicagotribune.com/coro...0200320-fs6neznkx5hindebnwmwsjlyc4-story.html

As trains transporting military tanks and Humvees traveled through the Chicago area the past few days, rumors took root on social media that the Illinois National Guard would play a role in imposing the directive.

The Guard quickly shot it down.

“Those (tanks and Humvees) are not ours,” said Lt. Col. Bradford Leighton of the Illinois National Guard. “The military moves equipment all the time by train. If we were to move, we wouldn’t be doing it by train. We would drive.”

 

[bhobba]

There's still hope. ITALY must radically reinforce confinement in all areas, they haven't done this everywhere! Incredible!

Yes. They bought Chinese experts in who told them exactly that - your containment measures are FAR too lax.

Thanks
Bill

 

[bhobba]

Not just youth, see the Washington Post article (March 19) quoted here.

Same in Australia.

Thanks
Bill

 

[bhobba]

Unfortunately, insufficient measures were taken in other parts of the world.

Exactly. Here in Aus we had our first case in January on the Gold Coast with a Chinese tourist. If we took action then we would be in much better shape now. But Australia was largely spared from SARS and didn't take it seriously enough. Singapore did.

Thanks
Bill

 

[bhobba]

One of the clubs here threw a quarantine themed party. Local businesses are struggling, but the strip club is still drawing customers. People have their priorities in order here.

I do not know if here in Brisbane we are taking it more or less seriously - the strip clubs are basically not attracting any patronage, but we are going to the beach and ignoring social distancing in droves. Beats me.

Thanks
Bill

 

[atyy]

I do not know if here in Brisbane we are taking it more or less seriously - the strip clubs are basically not attracting any patronage, but we are going to the beach and ignoring social distancing in droves. Beats me.

Standing and swimming 2m apart at the beach?

 

[bhobba]

Looking at it from their point of view,

I know what you mean. Here in Aus we had the Chinese ambassador on our Q&A program. He was treated terribly IMHO. He tried to explain what was going on in China, and for people to please understand China is in transition to become more like the west, but during that transition it will not be the same as the west, and gave reasonable examples. But people did not understand. They showed footage of Chinese being forcibly removed from their homes. Not good to see, not good at all. But as he correctly said not all Chinese understand the situation and force, regrettably, needed to be used sometimes. Again the audience did not seem convinced. Regarding calling it the Whuhan virus, yes I can understand China not being 'happy' with that, but it's common in the west with names like Spanish flu etc. It's the sort of cultural thing that's going to be hard to avoid. There are legitimate issues with some things China does, but they are best solved by diplomacy, not dismissing the reasonable answers to many, from our viewpoint, things that look 'bad'.

Thanks
Bill

 

[atyy]

Exactly. Here in Aus we had our first case in January on the Gold Coast with a Chinese tourist. If we took action then we would be in much better shape now. But Australia was largely spared from SARS and didn't take it seriously enough. Singapore did.

Australia's numbers look fairly proportional to Singapore's, maybe better in fact at the moment.
Singapore: 5.6 milliion population, 385 confirmed cases, 2 deaths
Australia: 24.6 million population, 1051 confirmed cases, 7 deaths

Some of Australia's measures are stricter than Singapore's, eg. Australia has banned events with more than 100 people and enforced at least 2m separation at events with less than 100 people, whereas in Singapore the corresponding limits are laxer with 250 people and 1m separation.

But you are right that things seem overall ok in Singapore at the moment. Cases still seem to be within the capability of contact tracing; there seem to be enough hospital and ICU beds; schools, restaurants and shopping centers are all still open (with social distancing precautions in place).

Anyway, no time to be off one's guard.

 

[OCR]

The Tribune may have a paywall.

Yeah, it did . . . but not anymore.

.

 

[bhobba]

Standing and swimming 2m apart at the beach?

Both. You are well advised here in Aus to only swim between the flags which are patrolled by Life Guards - the world famous Iron Men (or Women). It's considered an honour - an ex prime minister was one even when he was prime minister - he was also an active volunteer fire fighter. Simple solution - augment the life guards with some police to ensure social distancing. I notice some countries are introducing laws saying police now have the power to do all sort of things. Here in Aus you must obey police at all times. There is a famous example of a foreign documentary maker who was asked (nicely of course) by the police not to photograph a high profile mosque because they may take offence and threaten the peace of the area. She obeyed, but wondered about its legality. It was in fact illegal for police to order that, and they could have been reported, taken to court, all sorts of legal remedies were open to the person. But obey the policeman they had to, or be arrested. Of course they ask nicely first, explain why, and only use the 'big stick' if that does not work. So maybe the policeman could have evaded any legal implications because he simply asked - who knows with the law. Me - if a policeman asks I invariably say - of course - any other way I can help you officer?

Thanks
Bill

 

[bhobba]

Cases still seem to be within the capability of contact tracing; there seem to be enough hospital and ICU beds; schools, restaurants and shopping centers are all still open (with social distancing precautions in place). Anyway, no time to be off one's guard.

Yes - but they have introduced a new rule - anyone over 60 must self isolate as much as possible so now I do not go out to Sizzlers every day - I get a salad from Subway and something from a local take-away/eat-in cafe. That cafe does not have as good food as Sizzlers - it's hamburgers, fish an chips etc. But they look after older people well. You go in and order, then they bring it out to your car - nearly, but not quite drive through.

I forgot Singapores smaller population - you are right - at the moment they look about the same, but we have recently introduced some pretty tough measures. Testing is still showing the vast majority of cases is from contact with people from overseas - very little, at the moment, local transmission. I wouldn't like to be in the shoes of that twerp that let 2700 people off a ship before they got the results of Covid tests back - I still can't get my mind around that one.

Thanks
Bill

 

[OCR]

Bill. . .

They bought Chinese experts. . .

Did you forget to type an 'r' right after the 'b' ? .
.

 

[Borg]

IT managers, don't you love em. I was told by a friend their place of employ had the view managing was the same regardless of what is managed and in put a non IT person to manage them. They left on stress leave after 3 months because they could not understand why the tech people kept on saying you can't do that.

Thanks
Bill

The problem that my boss called about turned out to be caused by (and fixable by) another group. People who were already in the office were able to fix the problem. This is the third time this month where my manager has called me to tell me that I will need to come into fix a problem. Each time, I've been able to solve it with a few emails or phone calls.

 

[mfb]

Temporal dynamics in viral shedding and transmissibility of COVID-19
The usual caveat: Very fresh, not peer-reviewed yet.

We observed the highest viral load in throat swabs at the time of symptom onset, and inferred that infectiousness peaked on or before symptom onset. We estimated that 44% of transmission could occur before first symptoms of the index. Disease control measures should be adjusted to account for probable substantial pre-symptomatic transmission.

 

[gleem]

NYC and LA will no longer test for possible cases but only use tests for determining the appropriate course of treatment of symptomatic persons. This is due to lack of PPE and tests. According to CNN. Is this a good strategy?

 

[Astronuc]

A second person has died in Benton County from COVID-19, the Benton Franklin Health District said Friday.

It brings the number of confirmed cases in Benton County to three, including the two deaths. Franklin County has two cases.

The latest death reported was a man in his 80s who died last week, but did not have a positive test result.

I cannot tell if the health department simply assumed COVID-19, or if they tested posthumously.

Read more here: https://www.tri-cityherald.com/news/coronavirus/article241379711.html (may not be available to everyone)

A couple had traveled to the Redmond, Wash, area March 2-4 and she was not feeling well when they returned (implies rapid onset, < 4 days). As far as it is known, the woman was healthy before visiting Redmond WA, in King County, where there is a large number of positive cases. Woman went to hospital on March 12 and died March 14/15. Husband died of a heart attach on March 14.

The Tri-Cities are Richland, Kennewick and Pasco in SE Washington State, about 200 miles (320 km) from Seattle. The father of a colleague lives in Richland.

 

[Ygggdrasil]

NYC and LA will no longer test for possible cases but only use tests for determining the appropriate course of treatment of symptomatic persons. This is due to lack of PPE and tests. According to CNN. Is this a good strategy?

Given that NYC and LA are under stay at home orders, it is probably ok to not perform widespread testing in order to conserve both human and testing resources (though for those who are not staying at home, e.g. people working critical jobs, like grocery store clerks, testing should be made available). However, once the shelter in place ends, we better have widespread testing available, or all of the work of the lockdown will likely go down the drain.

 

[nsaspook]

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020...border-shutdowns-country-200318091505922.html

 

[Keith_McClary]

They showed footage of Chinese being forcibly removed from their homes.

A woman who tested positive for COVID-19 was arrested in Quebec City after she left isolation
Saturday, March 21, 2020

During the recently declared public health emergency, Quebec’s Public Health Act gives authorities greater powers if someone jeopardizes public health. Premier Francois Legault declared the 10-day emergency Mar. 14.

 

[zoki85]

https://www.digitaltrends.com/news/israel-seeks-to-track-phone-data-for-coronavirus/

LoL, Corona is killing privacy in Israel. Except getting permission from cell-phone providers, The Government must have special software to do such thing

 

[OmCheeto]

I suspect the wide "global" disparity in case fatality rates might be due to countries/locales being overwhelmed.

Possible

The following just came across my Facebook feed:

Margie Boulé; "I have a high school friend who has lived in Italy for decades. She’s been giving advance notice of what we can expect soon. Two hours ago she reported today’s statistics — and please be aware that, according to my friend, the death stats may be wrong because “some hospitals are so overwhelmed that they have stopped counting the dead.” Remember, this is just one month from when they had their first reported case:​

..."​

-----------------------------

Margie is a retired local news person

[of the highest quality, IMHO.
Her coverage of the local Pertussis outbreak in 2003 was second to none.]

[Edit]
I was worried about the legality of not asking Margie for permission to quote her, so I went back and discovered this:

Margie; "Pray for Italy. Pray for us all. AND STAY HOME.​

Please comment and share, so more people will see this."​

​

Bolding is obviously mine, as I haven't yet figured out how to bold on Facebook.

 

[Vanadium 50]

I'm not sure "heard it from a friend who heard it from a friend who heard it from another" meets PF standards, but...

This was quoted in the NY Post two days ago. (We can discuss whether the Post is a reputable source or not) However, the fact is that Italy is counting its dead. 3/17-3/21 is 345, 475, 427, 627, and 793. To compare, typical deaths in Italy are about 1800 per day. So while an individual hospital may certainly be overwhelmed (like the Seattle nursing home) I'd like to see more evidence before I believe the entire country is.

To be fair, there are some missed days in the counting from particular regions and the statistics show up in the following day. (e.g. 60-0-192-97-95)

 

[Astronuc]

Some US statistic as of this morning:

US statistics 3/21 17:14 ET (Coronadashboard has 25,239 positive, 297 deaths)
23,203 positive
156,017 negative
179,220 total test results
3,477 pending w/ tests
1,964 hospitalized
272 deaths

NY Statistics Last updated: 3/20 21:22 ET • Last checked: 3/21 16:10 ET
10,356 positive
35,081 negative
45,437 total test w/ results
1,603 pending
44 deaths

WA Statistics Last updated: 3/20 18:00 ET • Last checked: 3/21 15:24 ET
1,524 positive
21,719 negative
23,243 total test w/ results
85 deaths

CA Statistics Last updated: 3/21 00:00 ET • Last checked: 3/21 15:50 ET
1,279 positive
11,249 negative
12,528 total test w/ results
24 deaths

Numbers change rapidly as pending tests are confirmed positive/negative and new folks are tested.
The cases in WA slowed, as have those in CA, but NY area has taken off exponentially.
According to the Coronadashboard site, with 25,239, the US is poised to overtake Spain with total cases, but fewer deaths as of today. That can change as the virus spreads into areas where the populations do not adopt stay-at-home, which is the only practical defense to prevent infection until a vaccine is available. There is no approved treatment, such as an antiviral, but there are some drugs that may have potential, such as an anti-malarial drug (not yet verified) and remdesivir (Gilead). There are 8 vaccines under development, and several treatments.

 

[phinds]

... typical deaths in Italy are about 1800 per day.

From all the reports I've read, that's WAY more than their average. The biggest jump they've had was, as I recall, yesterday and it was about 700 so the average would be lower than that, not 1800.

 

[Vanadium 50]

Italy has a population of 60.5M and an annual death rate of 1.1%. That's 665K per year. 665K per year is 1800/day.

 

[phinds]

Italy has a population of 60.5M and an annual death rate of 1.1%. That's 665K per year. 665K per year is 1800/day.

Oh, I thought you meant from the virus.