COVID COVID-19 Coronavirus Containment Efforts

[collinsmark]

If Lockdown for the common flu is initiated in the US. Would it kill the common flu virus? If not. Why would it kill the COVID-19 and not the common flu?

Right now. There are only 2 things that make me think very optimistic. One is my blood type is Type O+ (who else is type O+ here). Second is Trump (perhaps the world's only hope).

The goal of the social distancing, and in more extreme cases, "lockdowns," is not not necessarily to eliminate the virus altogether in the near term. Sure, that would be nice. But without installing incredibly draconian measures, it's probably not going to happen in this case before a vaccine is produced, which is over a year away. (probably closer to a year and a half)

No, instead the idea of the social distancing and lockdowns is reduce the spread of the virus so that it doesn't overwhelm our healthcare systems. Hundreds of thousands, if not millions of lives can be saved so long as everybody doesn't contract the virus at once.

When the healthcare systems are overwhelmed, doctors will have to decide who lives and who dies, simply because there's not enough ventilators and/or other equipment to go around for everybody at once.

That's the main goal -- to spread it out a little over time so our healthcare system is not overwhelmed at any given time. A secondary benefit of spreading it out over time, is that as time goes on, more and more enter the population who have recovered from the infection. People who have fully recovered have become immune (once you've recovered from a particular strain of virus, it's very unlikely that you would be infected for a second time, at least not for several years). This increases the "herd immunity" for the rest of the population who haven't been infected yet (more on that later). Because of this secondary result, there will be fewer people infected overall. And for both reasons there will be far fewer deaths.

For further research, google "flattening the curve."

You may be asking, "Well, why isn't the flu like that?" Strains of the flu that are in circulation today have been in circulation for a long time. For any given strain of the flu, it is likely that several people in your circle of friends and family have been infected with that particular strain of flu before; be it last year or maybe 5 or 10 years ago, or that they have been vaccinated. That means that you won't catch that particular strain of the flu from those particular people because those people still have some immunity to that particular strain. And since those are the people you interact with it means that it is less likely that you will catch that particular strain of the flu (i.e., less people that you could catch it from). That's what's called "herd immunity." (I should also mention that if you've been vaccinated with a flu shot for a particular strain of flu, then that's another way you can become immune without being infected yourself).

And that's one of the things that makes this Coronavirus different. While there are other coronaviruses in circulation, they are not like this strain. This strain is new, or "novel." Almost nobody is immune to it yet. Pretty much anybody can catch it from (or spread it to) anybody else. There's almost no immune people blocking the transmissions. At least not yet. We need more people in the population who have recovered from COVID-19 before that has an effect. (And eventually, of course, we'll have a vaccine within a year - year and a half from now.)

The other things that makes novel Coronavirus different is it is more deadly than the flu. Conservative estimates put it at about 10 times more deadly for those that contract it, compared to the flu.

 

[chirhone]

The goal of the social distancing, and in more extreme cases, "lockdowns," is not not necessarily to eliminate the virus altogether in the near term. Sure, that would be nice. But without installing incredibly draconian measures, it's probably not going to happen in this case before a vaccine is produced, which is over a year away. (probably closer to a year and a half)

No, instead the idea of the social distancing and lockdowns is reduce the spread of the virus so that it doesn't overwhelm our healthcare systems. Hundreds of thousands, if not millions of lives can be saved so long as everybody doesn't contract the virus at once.

When the healthcare systems are overwhelmed, doctors will have to decide who lives and who dies, simply because there's not enough ventilators and/or other equipment to go around for everybody at once.

That's the main goal -- to spread it out a little over time so our healthcare system is not overwhelmed at any given time. A secondary benefit of spreading it out over time, is that as time goes on, more and more enter the population who have recovered from the infection. People who have fully recovered have become immune (once you've recovered from a particular strain of virus, it's very unlikely that you would be infected for a second time, at least not for several years). This increases the "herd immunity" for the rest of the population who haven't been infected yet (more on that later). Because of this secondary result, there will be fewer people infected overall. And for both reasons there will be far fewer deaths.

For further research, google "flattening the curve."

View attachment 258969

You may be asking, "Well, why isn't the flu like that?" Strains of the flu that are in circulation today have been in circulation for a long time. For any given strain of the flu, it is likely that several people in your circle of friends and family have been infected with that particular strain of flu before; be it last year or maybe 5 or 10 years ago, or that they have been vaccinated. That means that you won't catch that particular strain of the flu from those particular people because those people still have some immunity to that particular strain. And since those are the people you interact with it means that it is less likely that you will catch that particular strain of the flu (i.e., less people that you could catch it from). That's what's called "herd immunity." (I should also mention that if you've been vaccinated with a flu shot for a particular strain of flu, then that's another way you can become immune without being infected yourself).

And that's one of the things that makes this Coronavirus different. While there are other coronaviruses in circulation, they are not like this strain. This strain is new, or "novel." Almost nobody is immune to it yet. Pretty much anybody can catch it from (or spread it to) anybody else. There's almost no immune people blocking the transmissions. At least not yet. We need more people in the population who have recovered from COVID-19 before that has an effect. (And eventually, of course, we'll have a vaccine within a year - year and a half from now.)

The other things that makes novel Coronavirus different is it is more deadly than the flu. Conservative estimates put it at about 10 times more deadly for those that contract it, compared to the flu.

What years or centuries ago did the flu become pandemic? And before people got immuned to it. Did it also overwhelm the US health system then requiring this flattening the curve?

 

[collinsmark]

What years or centuries ago did the flu become pandemic? And before people got immuned to it. Did it also overwhelm the US health system then requiring this flattening the curve?

There are several/many strains of influenza. So to fully answer your question we'd have to take each strain individually. (And that would be way out of my expertise.)

Complicating this fact is that a given strain can often mutate into a slightly different strain, over time, as it's passed from person to person. A person immune to the original strain might still retain a little bit of immunity to the mutated strain, but to a lesser degree.

Sometimes when a virus mutates it does so in a way that makes the mutated virus less deadly to its host (the idea is that living hosts are better at transmitting the disease than dead hosts, thus those mutations that survive are the ones less likely to kill the host). But again, I'm straying quite far away from my comfort zone of expertise here.

Anyway, a good example of a recent flu pandemic is the 1918 Flu Pandemic (H1N1):
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-pandemic-h1n1.html

 

[chirhone]

The goal of the social distancing, and in more extreme cases, "lockdowns," is not not necessarily to eliminate the virus altogether in the near term. Sure, that would be nice. But without installing incredibly draconian measures, it's probably not going to happen in this case before a vaccine is produced, which is over a year away. (probably closer to a year and a half)

No, instead the idea of the social distancing and lockdowns is reduce the spread of the virus so that it doesn't overwhelm our healthcare systems. Hundreds of thousands, if not millions of lives can be saved so long as everybody doesn't contract the virus at once.

When the healthcare systems are overwhelmed, doctors will have to decide who lives and who dies, simply because there's not enough ventilators and/or other equipment to go around for everybody at once.

That's the main goal -- to spread it out a little over time so our healthcare system is not overwhelmed at any given time. A secondary benefit of spreading it out over time, is that as time goes on, more and more enter the population who have recovered from the infection. People who have fully recovered have become immune (once you've recovered from a particular strain of virus, it's very unlikely that you would be infected for a second time, at least not for several years). This increases the "herd immunity" for the rest of the population who haven't been infected yet (more on that later). Because of this secondary result, there will be fewer people infected overall. And for both reasons there will be far fewer deaths.

For further research, google "flattening the curve."

View attachment 258969

You may be asking, "Well, why isn't the flu like that?" Strains of the flu that are in circulation today have been in circulation for a long time. For any given strain of the flu, it is likely that several people in your circle of friends and family have been infected with that particular strain of flu before; be it last year or maybe 5 or 10 years ago, or that they have been vaccinated. That means that you won't catch that particular strain of the flu from those particular people because those people still have some immunity to that particular strain. And since those are the people you interact with it means that it is less likely that you will catch that particular strain of the flu (i.e., less people that you could catch it from). That's what's called "herd immunity." (I should also mention that if you've been vaccinated with a flu shot for a particular strain of flu, then that's another way you can become immune without being infected yourself).

And that's one of the things that makes this Coronavirus different. While there are other coronaviruses in circulation, they are not like this strain. This strain is new, or "novel." Almost nobody is immune to it yet. Pretty much anybody can catch it from (or spread it to) anybody else. There's almost no immune people blocking the transmissions. At least not yet. We need more people in the population who have recovered from COVID-19 before that has an effect. (And eventually, of course, we'll have a vaccine within a year - year and a half from now.)

The other things that makes novel Coronavirus different is it is more deadly than the flu. Conservative estimates put it at about 10 times more deadly for those that contract it, compared to the flu.

About flattening the curves. How do you insert the formula for the maximum numbers of hospitals in a given place (say New York) and the number of patients (or positive cases) before it overwhelms the health system?

Here in my country. We have 240 positive cases now and our hospitals filled up to capacity already and lacking ventilators. If we can't contain it. We are projected to have 75,000 cases in a few months. I wonder if this is the Nightmare Scenario.

 

[kadiot]

About flattening the curves. How do you insert the formula for the maximum numbers of hospitals in a given place (say New York) and the number of patients (or positive cases) before it overwhelms the health system?

Here in my country. We have 240 positive cases now and our hospitals filled up to capacity already and lacking ventilators. If we can't contain it. We are projected to have 75,000 cases in a few months. I wonder if this is the Nightmare Scenario.

THE PHILIPPINE PRIVATIZATION PROGRAM. There are more private hospitals 60 % and only around 40 percent of hospitals are public (Department of Health, 2009). Healthcare in the Philippines suffers because the remaining 70 percent of health professionals work in the more expensive privately run sectors.

 

[russ_watters]

US finally ramped up testing: Table
13,000 tests on Monday, 22,000 tests on Tuesday, 27,000 tests on Wednesday.
Overall about 10% of the tests came back positive.

...but we still have a long way to go. We're just now opening drive-through testing centers, and the guidance so far is only first responders, those with already severe symptoms and other special risk/need people can get the tests. Mildly symptomatic people aren't getting tested.

 

[mfb]

It 's getting so bad. I don't know how we are going to manage this. Hospitals are already running out of PPE and having to make it DIY.

Washington state has 1400 cases with a population of 7.6 million (184/million). Italy has 41,000 cases with a population of 60 million (680/million).
The two places had the same per capita confirmed case rate when Italy had 11,000 confirmed cases: March 10-11. At that point Italy closed down nearly all non-essential activity. Washington has many similar rules now, some implemented a few days ago.

 

[chirhone]

THE PHILIPPINE PRIVATIZATION PROGRAM. There are more private hospitals 60 % and only around 40 percent of hospitals are public (Department of Health, 2009). Healthcare in the Philippines suffers because the remaining 70 percent of health professionals work in the more expensive privately run sectors. View attachment 258976

For comparisons. What are the numbers of hospitals, ICU beds, etc in New York, Singapore, etc?

 

[mfb]

For comparisons. What are the numbers of hospitals, ICU beds, etc in New York, Singapore, etc?

US overall: 3/1000 hospital beds (would be 330,000 at the same population), 0.3/1000 ICU beds (33,000). Factor ~4 and `~30 higher. Among OECD countries the US has a low number of hospital beds but a very high number of ICU beds.
Here is a table

 

[Vanadium 50]

it seems only the US have flu

Do you seriously think diseases respect national borders?

 

[chirhone]

Do you seriously think diseases respect national borders?

We never have snow or winter. Flu is widespread only in cold places. I don't know anyone with flu, and never known anyone who died from Flu.

About COVID-19. It can infect people even in summer. But for those countries where clusters that runs into hundreds or thousands of positive per day. Are all of them in cold places? Italy, Germany, Iran, Wuhan, UK? But I think Iran is always summer? So COVID-19 explosion in poplution indeed knows no climate?

 

[chirhone]

We never have snow or winter. Flu is widespread only in cold places. I don't know anyone with flu, and never known anyone who died from Flu.

About COVID-19. It can infect people even in summer. But for those countries where clusters that runs into hundreds or thousands of positive per day. Are all of them in cold places? Italy, Germany, Iran, Wuhan, UK? But I think Iran is always summer? So COVID-19 explosion in poplution indeed knows no climate?

Here is some reference, a new study. https://www.yahoo.com/news/study-says-high-temperature-high-213034915.html

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3551767

 

[chirhone]

About flattening the curves. How do you insert the formula for the maximum numbers of hospitals in a given place (say New York) and the number of patients (or positive cases) before it overwhelms the health system?

Here in my country. We have 240 positive cases now and our hospitals filled up to capacity already and lacking ventilators. If we can't contain it. We are projected to have 75,000 cases in a few months. I wonder if this is the Nightmare Scenario.

Btw.. here's the reference for the above. We only have 230 cases. Spain has 1000 deaths. Germany has thousands of cases each day. And we can no longe cope?

Wuhan experts. Assist us.

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/03/20/20/we-feel-were-on-our-own-ph-hospitals-appeal-to-govt-for-help-in-covid-19-fight

"Eleven hospitals and medical centers said in an "urgent appeal" that an "alarming number" of their personnel were under the 14-day mandatory quarantine for individuals exposed to COVID-19 patients, as persons under investigation (PUIs) "continue to flock" to their emergency rooms every day.

According to the group, most of their "regular rooms have been turned into COVID-19 isolation areas", leaving less for non- Coronavirus patients who also have life-threatening conditions.

"The panic is escalating, mortality is increasing, our supplies of personal protective equipment (PPE) are running short, our frontline staff are increasingly getting depleted as more of them are quarantined or physically and emotiional exhausted, and a number of our medical colleagues are already hooked to respirators fighting for their lives in various ICUs (intensive care units)," the group said in a joint statement.

"Even our ICUs are getting full. Soon we will have a shortage of respirators. We have every reason to be scared; we are, indeed very scared because we feel that we are on our own to face our countrymen in dire need of help."

(that's only 230 cases, what if it turns 75,000 cases? then it's like Iran or Italy? Gosh )

 

[kadiot]

I understand the British have decided not to follow the strategy of herd immunity. Estimates suggest the overall cost will be too high and things will become considerably worse before getting better.

Thank you for the headsup. He will have his press conference tonight. He's not leading at the moment. He waffles during his press conferences.

 

[chirhone]

It looks like Wuhan is just the beginning. It has to be repeated in every country (or at least major ones)? In the US. What is the projection? 50% of population infected and 1 million deaths?

 

[DennisN]

What is the difference beween flu or common cold? I only experienced common cold. I never have flu. What does having flu feel like?

I actually asked that question when I was in contact with healthcare, and the nurse told me the flu can usually be felt in the entire body, and there can be body aches. When she told me that I remembered the feeling. I've had such a flu two times in my life, and it was very disabling. I could not do anything but the very basic stuff because I felt so sick. The first time I had the flu I had to cancel a ski trip and the second time I had to cancel playing a live music show. I was pretty much stuck in bed.

 

[kadiot]

Five Key Lessons from Ebola That Can Help Us Win Against Coronavirus, Everywhere

1 Slow down the virus — take swift action to temporarily ban public gatherings, close schools and ask your residents to stay at home.

2 test, test, test: rapidly scale up testing and bring it as close as possible to your residents’ homes

3. Protect health care workers who provide care for the sick

4. Repurpose arms of government, including the military, to support epidemic response.

5. Plan for recovery now focusing on those most affected by the pandemic’s economic blow

https://www.google.com/amp/s/time.c...-win-against-coronavirus-everywhere/?amp=true

 

[DennisN]

Did it also overwhelm the US health system then requiring this flattening the curve?

Anyway, a good example of a recent flu pandemic is the 1918 Flu Pandemic (H1N1):
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-pandemic-h1n1.html

@chirhone, it overwhelmed the health system of all countries.

Since Dr Richard Hatchett mentioned the Spanish flu in the video in this previous post of mine, I looked for documentaries about it, and I saw two yesterday, one short and one long:

(1)

Spanish Flu: a warning from history (University of Cambridge) (11 minutes)
100 years ago, celebrations marking the end of the First World War were cut short by the onslaught of a devastating disease - the 1918-19 influenza pandemic. Its early origins and initial geographical starting point still remain a mystery but in the Summer of 1918, there was a second wave of a far more virulent form of the influenza virus than anyone could have anticipated. Soon dubbed ‘Spanish Flu’ after its effects were reported in the country’s newspapers, the virus rapidly spread across much of the globe to become one of the worst natural disasters in human history. To mark the centenary and to highlight vital scientific research, the University of Cambridge has made a new film exploring what we have learned about Spanish Flu, the urgent threat posed by influenza today, and how scientists are preparing for future pandemics.
(2)

1918 Spanish Flu historical documentary (40 minutes)
Historical documentary about 1918 Swine Flu or Spanish Flu and the role of World War I in spreading the disease among troops making it into a worldwide plague of devastating proportions. The video covers where it began, how and where it spread, the symptoms, how it affected America and whether it could happen again.
Youtube link here.

The second documentary seems to be a privately produced documentary, but I thought it was good and it provided a list of sources at the end.

According to the second documentary (and if I remember correctly) the disease called the Spanish flu came in three waves, of which the second wave was the deadliest¹. It got the name "Spanish flu" since Spain was neutral in World War I and the first country to freely report about it without censorship.

¹ I just checked the wiki page and it is reporting the same; here's a graph describing the three waves:

 

[atyy]

It looks like Wuhan is just the beginning. It has to be repeated in every country (or at least major ones)? In the US. What is the projection? 50% of population infected and 1 million deaths?

Although Wuhan was mismanaged early in the outbreak and had a terrible experience, overall it suggests amazingly that even such obstacles can be overcome. China has reported no new infections arising from within for two days in a row (new cases are from travellers coming in from other countries). Currently only about 1% of Wuhan's population has been infected. So Wuhan's experience gives hope that Italy can succeed, and that the US need not follow Italy's experience if they continue to aggressively impose social distancing measures.
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/covid-19-china-sees-zero-local-coronavirus-cases-for-second-day-12559126

Another country well worth studying is South Korea, which seems to be succeeding despite a huge spike in cases. Interestingly, South Korea seems to be succeeding without lockdowns. They use milder social distancing measures, thorough contact tracing, and lots of testing.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-51836898
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/202...-sharply-south-korea-whats-secret-its-success
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/new...h-korea-cases-test-data-surveillance-12559252

 

[kyphysics]

Although Wuhan was mismanaged early in the outbreak and had a terrible experience, overall it suggests amazingly that even such obstacles can be overcome. China has reported no new infections arising from within for two days in a row (new cases are from travellers coming in from other countries). Currently only about 1% of Wuhan's population has been infected. So Wuhan's experience gives hope that Italy can succeed, and that the US need not follow Italy's experience if they continue to aggressively impose social distancing measures.

Call me cynical, but I don't believe ANYTHING about cases and deaths coming from China!

Another country well worth studying is South Korea, which seems to be succeeding despite a huge spike in cases. Interestingly, South Korea seems to be succeeding without lockdowns. They use milder social distancing measures, thorough contact tracing, and lots of testing.

The problem is that lots of American youth brazenly don't care and even say they WILL NOT SOCIAL DISTANCE:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/why-are-people-ignoring-social-distancing-advice-201709211.html

They say they will just get the virus and it's okay and they don't want to give up partying.

 

[atyy]

Call me cynical, but I don't believe ANYTHING about cases and deaths coming from China!

Why do you doubt China's statistics? The WHO visited China and were able to see their practices for themselves.
https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...na-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf

Here is a webinar by Dale Fisher, a member of the WHO team that visited China. He talks about what they did when they visited China. @bhobba: Dale Fisher is Australian.
https://medicine.nus.edu.sg/cet/webinar/#show

China is now helping Italy.
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/dip...ds-team-medical-experts-gear-help-italy-fight
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...tself-as-a-leader-in-tackling-the-coronavirus

 

[Rive]

Call me cynical, but I don't believe ANYTHING about cases and deaths coming from China!

Among the hospitalized cases their statistics is ~ in sync with the available data from US.
The rate of non-hospitalized cases is a big-big question everywhere and actually the biggest liar about this will be from Europa, as it seems...

 

[anorlunda]

IDENTIFYING CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE DURING COVID-19

That's a very useful link. Thanks for sharing. I'm sure it will become a discussion topic before long, and we can use that as a jumping off point.

Of course if the lockdown lasts for 18 months as some sources say, then all the people with non-essential jobs will run out of money and solving that becomes critical.

 

[anorlunda]

What years or centuries ago did the flu become pandemic? And before people got immuned to it. Did it also overwhelm the US health system then requiring this flattening the curve?

LOL. There was no US health system centuries ago.

 

[mfb]

There was no US by the time influenza evolved. The ancient Greeks had descriptions of the flu, over 2000 years ago, and the disease might be much older.

CDC has a histogram of symptom onset - basically the same approach as I posted for China a while ago. These numbers are very incomplete, but they show the same general picture. Cases come much earlier than confirmed cases. The US had 100 new people showing symptoms (not just being infected!) on March 2. At that time the US had 57 confirmed cases. And these 100 are just people who were confirmed to have the virus later.

 

[Borg]

I haven't been in one of my offices for over two weeks. Today, my boss called me to say that there was a confirmed case in the building (one floor below ours) and that I might need to come into take care of a code problem. Really.

 

[kadiot]

So Wuhan's experience gives hope that Italy can succeed, and that the US need not follow Italy's experience if they continue to aggressively impose social distancing measures.

There's still hope. ITALY must radically reinforce confinement in all areas, they haven't done this everywhere! Incredible!

 

[Keith_McClary]

The problem is that lots of American youth brazenly don't care and even say they WILL NOT SOCIAL DISTANCE

Not just youth, see the Washington Post article (March 19) quoted here.

 

[kyphysics]

Why do you doubt China's statistics? The WHO visited China and were able to see their practices for themselves.
https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...na-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf

Here is a webinar by Dale Fisher, a member of the WHO team that visited China. He talks about what they did when they visited China. @bhobba: Dale Fisher is Australian.
https://medicine.nus.edu.sg/cet/webinar/#show

China is now helping Italy.
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/dip...ds-team-medical-experts-gear-help-italy-fight
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...tself-as-a-leader-in-tackling-the-coronavirus

Is WHO, itself, free from corruption? I vaguely (could be wrong) recall reading somewhere that China had controlling influence over it, from having board members situated with them or something like that.

My lack of trust in China comes from their early suppression of the cases in Wuhan and history of repression of "bad facts" that don't make their country look good to the outside world. The people of China are innocent. But their government is corrupt and always controls the news narratives about what is going on inside the nation.

My question is why would anyone trust anything the Chinese government says? Can we verify for sure China's success in dealing with the virus post-cover-up? If it's verifiable, okay, I concede. But if we're talking about just trusting their numbers without direct proof, then I feel I have the right to be suspicious.

 

[Borg]

I have a question about testing and risk.

I assume that the current tests are all looking for the virus itself and that there aren't any tests for antibodies once you've recovered. With some cases described as being so mild that people didn't even know that they were sick, an antibody test would eventually be needed to see who is still at risk while we're still waiting for a vaccine. If someone who has recovered is immune and can no longer spread the virus, would they be able to get back to their normal lives without risk to others?

If it's been mentioned already, sorry that I haven't read through 63 pages of posts.