COVID-19 Coronavirus Containment Efforts

[Vanadium 50]

Local retail stores are reducing hours. Seems like that's the wrong direction - this increases rather than decreases customer density.

 

[Greg Bernhardt]

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[TeethWhitener]

I have a question about testing and risk.

I assume that the current tests are all looking for the virus itself and that there aren't any tests for antibodies once you've recovered. With some cases described as being so mild that people didn't even know that they were sick, an antibody test would eventually be needed to see who is still at risk while we're still waiting for a vaccine. If someone who has recovered is immune and can no longer spread the virus, would they be able to get back to their normal lives without risk to others?

If it's been mentioned already, sorry that I haven't read through 63 pages of posts.

Right now PCR is the gold standard for testing (not whole virus culture). There is some talk about development of immunoassay testing, but as far as I know, it hasn’t left the lab yet (apparently there’s a lot of antibody cross-reactivity with other coronaviruses). Here’s the WHO guide on testing:
https://www.who.int/emergencies/dis...s-2019/technical-guidance/laboratory-guidance

 

[russ_watters]

Although Wuhan was mismanaged early in the outbreak and had a terrible experience, overall it suggests amazingly that even such obstacles can be overcome. China has reported no new infections arising from within for two days in a row (new cases are from travellers coming in from other countries). Currently only about 1% of Wuhan's population has been infected. So Wuhan's experience gives hope that Italy can succeed, and that the US need not follow Italy's experience if they continue to aggressively impose social distancing measures.

What is most amazing to me is that Wuhan seems to have exported COV-19 throughout the globe, but not throughout the rest of China. I'm guessing this speaks to the relative immobility of people compared to those in most other countries.

 

[Jarvis323]

Local retail stores are reducing hours. Seems like that's the wrong direction - this increases rather than decreases customer density.

Could be that they need more time to disinfect. Or maybe they need a window of time long enough for the virus to die on the surfaces between closing and opening? Stores are also commonly opening early just for seniors now.

 

[Ygggdrasil]

Right now PCR is the gold standard for testing (not whole virus culture). There is some talk about development of immunoassay testing, but as far as I know, it hasn’t left the lab yet (apparently there’s a lot of antibody cross-reactivity with other coronaviruses). Here’s the WHO guide on testing:

https://www.who.int/emergencies/dis...s-2019/technical-guidance/laboratory-guidance

There are some lab-developed immunoassays to detect antibodies against the COVID-19 virus, for example, two days ago, scientists just released a pre-print describing their new immunoassay test: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.17.20037713v1

For a popular press summary see: https://www.sciencemag.org/news/202...es-could-show-true-scale-coronavirus-pandemic

The immunoassay test, while potentially useful for diagnostic purposes, would also be useful to get a handle on how many undiagnosed cases there may have been, which individuals in a population should be immune to the virus, and how long that immunity lasts.

 

[Keith_McClary]

What is most amazing to me is that Wuhan seems to have exported COV-19 throughout the globe, but not throughout the rest of China. I'm guessing this speaks to the relative immobility of people compared to those in most other countries.

China Will Rack Up Three Billion Trips During World’s Biggest Human Migration
Bloomberg News
19 January 2020
Gung hay fat choy!

 

[gleem]

My daughter- in- law who works in a local hospital here in FL says they just received the test kits today but will not be able to start testing for five days. She says that the test result will probably not be available for 5 -10 days. People using the physicians affiliated with this hospital may wait two weeks to get results. Meanwhile, students are partying on the beaches exchanging bodily fluids and in a week or so will disperse across the country to bring home a present to their parents and relatives. The current increase of new cases is 33% per day which means at this rate 370,000 cases by 4/1. Only 2 of 5 people say they will avoid crowds. It is only going to get worse. Hang on to your hats.

 

[atyy]

Local retail stores are reducing hours. Seems like that's the wrong direction - this increases rather than decreases customer density.

It depends. In Singapore, many retail stores reduced their hours because customer density had dropped already, ie. not enough customers to warrant opening long hours. Community spread here was detected around 7 Feb. The first week after that, I recall restaurants were almost empty, but things recovered a bit a couple of weeks later. But even with the improvement, it seems that business was still about 50% less.

 

[phinds]

I assume you actually meant this link:
https://www.zdnet.com/article/graph-theory-suggests-covid-19-might-be-a-small-world-after-all/

Thanks. Don't know how that happened. I've corrected it.

 

[atyy]

What is most amazing to me is that Wuhan seems to have exported COV-19 throughout the globe, but not throughout the rest of China. I'm guessing this speaks to the relative immobility of people compared to those in most other countries.

Wuhan did export the virus to all provinces of China. However, various measures were taken throughout China to slow the spread of the infection. Unfortunately, insufficient measures were taken in other parts of the world. @OmCheeto had some posts earlier in this thread about cases in other parts of China. The death rate outside Hubei, where Wuhan is, is lower. But one of the interesting things @OmCheeto noticed was that Guangdong and Zhejiang seemed to have even lower death rates than other non-Hubei provinces. I think the death rate in Guangdong has risen since then, but Zhejiang is on track to have 1 death in about 1200 cases (but they still have 14 active cases, some of the more recent cases are imported from Italy)

Current statistics in various parts of China:
https://www.statista.com/statistics...and-suspected-wuhan-coronavirus-cases-region/

By Jan 30 all provinces of China had cases
https://www.businessinsider.sg/wuhan-coronavirus-spread-every-region-china-2020-1?r=US&IR=T

Mentions various measures that were taken throughout China
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...-curbs-many-report-no-new-cases-idUSKCN20I0F2

Many new cases in China are imported (eg. Chinese citizens returning from Europe)
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020...-surge-infected-arrivals-200304062507995.html
http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-03/03/c_138838575.htm

 

[phinds]

I don't know about that, but garlic - especially if eaten raw - can be a great help with social distancing.

 

[Ygggdrasil]

The state of Illinois will be under a stay at home order from tomorrow evening through Apr 7: https://www.chicagotribune.com/coro...0200320-teedakbfw5gvdgmnaxlel54hau-story.html

 

[zoki85]

The state of Illinois will be under a stay at home order from tomorrow evening through Apr 7: https://www.chicagotribune.com/coro...0200320-teedakbfw5gvdgmnaxlel54hau-story.html

Why on Earth is Chicago Tribune webpage unavailable in EU countries?

 

[Ygggdrasil]

Why on Earth is Chicago Tribune webpage unavailable in EU countries?

The Tribune may have a paywall. Try a link from our other local newspaper: https://chicago.suntimes.com/2020/3...der-illinois-what-it-means-pritzker-lightfoot

 

[gleem]

I am following this website for the Covid 19 tally at https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
In the last few days the daily increase in new cases has risen to about 40% compared to 33% for the week before. US cases today are at 19,383 with 256 deaths and counting at 8 EDT.

Breaking News. My son who lives in Easton MD. on the Eastern Shore of the Chesapeake Bay just sent me pictures of many military tanks arriving by rail. Easton does have a National Guard Armory. Does this mean anything?

 

[zoki85]

Mortality 256/19383 ≈ 1.5 %. Worse than Germans, better than Italians

 

[OmCheeto]

Wuhan did export the virus to all provinces of China.

Yup. Of the 31* locales with over 500 cases, Chinese provinces account for 1/3 of them(11).

However, various measures were taken throughout China to slow the spread of the infection. Unfortunately, insufficient measures were taken in other parts of the world. @OmCheeto had some posts earlier in this thread about cases in other parts of China. The death rate outside Hubei, where Wuhan is, is lower. But one of the interesting things @OmCheeto noticed was that Guangdong and Zhejiang seemed to have even lower death rates than other non-Hubei provinces. I think the death rate in Guangdong has risen since then, but Zhejiang is on track to have 1 death in about 1200 cases (but they still have 14 active cases, some of the more recent cases are imported from Italy)

Thanks for reminding me about this.
Almost every other day I notice something interesting, but I missed this trend:

Between February 18th and March 3rd, Chinese CFR's nearly flat-lined.

Current statistics ...

Sorry, but I didn't check out a single one of your links.
There's just too much maths and graphing to be done.

I suspect the wide "global" disparity in case fatality rates might be due to countries/locales being overwhelmed.

Not sure what's going on with Germany.
------

* 2020.03.17

 

[Mondayman]

One of the clubs here threw a quarantine themed party. Local businesses are struggling, but the strip club is still drawing customers. People have their priorities in order here.

 

[StoneTemplePython]

Why do you doubt China's statistics? The WHO visited China and were able to see their practices for themselves.
https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...na-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf

Here's one reason to be weary of data from China. An excerpt from the excellent issue of The Economist released yesterday:

THE FLOW of information is essential to curbing a pandemic. Yet on March 17th China took a dramatic step towards throttling it. Xi Jinping’s government ordered American journalists for the New York Times, the Washington Post and the Wall Street Journal to leave the country, in the biggest expulsion of Western correspondents from China since the Communist takeover in 1949. The world sorely needs objective reporting on the place with the longest experience of fighting covid-19. China, too, lacks objective reporting about the virus or any other sensitive topic.

https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/03/21/expelling-journalists-is-no-way-to-fight-a-pandemic

This of course could have happened for many reasons; it may not directly (or even indirectly) relate to the current batch of statistics. For example: opportunism for the party to extend its reach domestically, and better stage manage its portrayal internationally (perhaps with an eye toward after the pandemic).

Nevertheless, if you play 'poker' and see someone 'raise' like this, you should have a material amount of skepticism about their cards.

 

[zoki85]

I suspect the wide "global" disparity in case fatality rates might be due to countries/locales being overwhelmed.

Possible

 

[Tom.G]

re China throwing out reporters: (can't find original post, referenced in post 1580 by @StoneTemplePython)

re China throwing out reporters:
IIRC, at the time, it was reported that they were rather upset about the US President insisting on calling it the Chinese Flu or Chinese Virus. So they effectively said 'If you are going to be that obnoxious, F*** Off and get out.'

Just as many of use would do with a visitor to our home!
That doesn't make the lack of information any more pleasant, just understandable.

 

[wukunlin]

Here's one reason to be weary of data from China. An excerpt from the excellent issue of The Economist released yesterday:https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/03/21/expelling-journalists-is-no-way-to-fight-a-pandemic

This of course could have happened for many reasons; it may not directly (or even indirectly) relate to the current batch of statistics. For example: opportunism for the party to extend its reach domestically, and better stage manage its portrayal internationally (perhaps with an eye toward after the pandemic).

Nevertheless, if you play 'poker' and see someone 'raise' like this, you should have a material amount of skepticism about their cards.

I have lived in China for about 5 years. Looking at it from their point of view, foreign journalists, especially from USA, have a track record amplifying or twisting the negatives, even making things up out of thin air, and disregarding everything positive as propaganda. With this outbreak, nothing has changed, a whole bunch of journalists took this opportunity to make up fictional horror stories. I know they are made up because I am seeing things right here with my own eyes. In this case, the Chinese government finally had enough.

I will believe the data in China are real unless proved otherwise. Disregarding everything "because China," in my opinion, is simply prejudice.

 

[StoneTemplePython]

I will believe the data in China are real unless proved otherwise.

It may be that this issue is too politically dangerous for people residing in China to meaningfully participate on this thread.

Incidentally we know that Iran has been cooking the data for covid19 infections and deaths (I can cite exact issue of More or Less podcast if people want a source.) With China we don't really know either way. Like I said the biggest expulsion of foreign journalists since Mao's takeover is cause for some skepticism.

 

[wukunlin]

It may be that this issue is too politically dangerous for people residing in China to meaningfully participate on this thread.

This is the sort of exaggeration I'm talking about. The most immediate danger I have right now is from a PF mentor giving me warning for talking too much politics in PF

 

[Astronuc]

Breaking News. My son who lives in Easton MD. on the Eastern Shore of the Chesapeake Bay just sent me pictures of many military tanks arriving by rail. Easton does have a National Guard Armory. Does this mean anything?

From The Hill - " Tens of thousands of National Guard troops could be activated in states across the country in the next several weeks to help deal with the Coronavirus pandemic, the head of the National Guard said Thursday. "
https://thehill.com/policy/defense/...s-of-thousands-of-national-guard-troops-could
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...used-to-assist-with-coronavirus-idUSKBN2163F3

Governor Cuomo has called out National Guard units in NY for support. I've heard units in Washington State have been activated.
March 18, 2020 - "LATHAM, N.Y. – A week into a mission to help contain the spread of the COVID-19 coronavirus, the New York National Guard had 900 personnel on duty from Long Island to New York City to the Albany area March 17."
https://www.nationalguard.mil/News/...k-national-guard-members-respond-to-covid-19/

Tanks are not part of the NG deployment. I've seen tanks moved by train, which saves using individual trucks and fuel. As far as I know, tanks are not deployed in the US, although there are bases where they are used for training.

 

[bhobba]

Lockdown kills the flu.

Of course, and more efficiently than Coronovirirus because on average it has a lower R0 of about 1.7, but varies with strain and communal setting. Coronovirus is the same in that it varies with communal setting, but is thought to on the average have an R0 of about 2.3 - higher than the flu. As mentioned it varies with communal setting - if you have lockdown you reinfect very few people, and the R0 goes well below 1, in which case it simply dies out. Those into math can solve the differential equation, see its exponential with an index depending on R0 and time. The higher the R0 the faster it explodes, below 1 it simply dies out. Thats the idea of all the measures (eg social distancing, no handshakes etc) we are taking - is to lower the R0 and reduce spread. Lockdown is the ultimate reduction - and will kill it off.

Thats all fine and dandy, you may even say fantastic, but here is the rub. Maintaining the lockdown, force will usually be needed - China was literally forced to weld people into their buildings on occasion. Managing the economic consequences - that can easily be in the trillions - you know what they say - a trillion here, a trillion there and pretty soon you are talking real money. Plus it can never be 100% effective - people have to get food, see doctors if they fall and break bones etc etc. Then exactly what happens once the lockdown is over - will it simply come back again. In reality you can't keep it up for extended periods - its purpose is to buy time to get other measures in place such as distribution of the anti malarial drug that has proven to be effective against it and, fingers crossed, get a vaccine.

The better solution it to go hard and early like Singapore etc did - Italy is the extreme example of not doing that. Other countries are somewhat in the middle. I would say Australia is between the USA and Singapore, but IMHO even it was too slow. That is now being fixed - we had a spike in cases just after our boarders were closed, but fingers crossed over the last 3 days the increase in cases was declining - 50, 40, 37 in Queensland. But some nut case let 2700 people off a cruise ship in New South Wales:
https://www.thechronicle.com.au/news/2700-passengers-let-off-infected-sydney-cruise-shi/3976794/

Thanks
Bill

 

[wukunlin]

The death rate outside Hubei, where Wuhan is, is lower. But one of the interesting things @OmCheeto noticed was that Guangdong and Zhejiang seemed to have even lower death rates than other non-Hubei provinces. I think the death rate in Guangdong has risen since then, but Zhejiang is on track to have 1 death in about 1200 cases (but they still have 14 active cases, some of the more recent cases are imported from Italy)

What I see in Guangdong and Zhejiang is that their cases are more concentrated, with Guandong almost all cases are in Guangzhou and Shenzhen, in fact all cities of Guangdong in the leaderboard are in the Pearl River Delta. These cities are relatively wealthy and have access better healthcare comparing most other Chinese cities. Almost all cases in Zhejiang are concentrated in Wenzhou, where they eventually implemented Hubei-style lockdown. With the rest of Zhejiang having few numbers of cases, the resources of the province (also a wealthy one at that) can be poured to helping Wenzhou.
With other provinces in China, those are either the poorer ones or cases are spread out too widely.

 

[bhobba]

It would seem like a fairly trivial thing for some like Elon Musk to put his vast resources towards this.

Well Bill Gates did donate $100 million and has been warning about it for years:


He is also good friends with Warren Buffet who basically has, like Bill Gates himself, pledged his entire fortune to the Bill Gates Foundation. Together they are the richest people on earth.

We did not listen, yet these people are now, basically pledging their entire fortune to save humanity. Some speak of the greedy rich - my eyes often roll back at that - yes there are some greedy rich - but certainly not all - not by a long shot.

Thanks
Bill

 

[Jarvis323]

Well Bill Gates did donate $100 million and has been warning about it for years:


He is also good friends with Warren Buffet who basically has, like Bill Gates himself, pledged his entire fortune to the Bill Gates Foundation. Together they are the richest people on earth.

We did not listen, yet these people are now, basically pledging their entire fortune to save humanity. Some speak of the greedy rich - my eyes often roll back at that - yes there are some greedy rich - but certainly not all - not by a long shot.

Thanks
Bill

That's true, but I just hope it translates to help solving a very time sensitive issue. One millions dollars is really nothing compared to the money the federal government has, but time after time we see them too little and too late. We need things immediately, so besides money it requires initiative, and innovation.

We should also thank Jack Ma. He has donated 1,000,000 masks and 500,000 test kits to the US, and similar amounts to Europe, Japan, Africa, Iran, and many other countries.