COVID COVID-19 Coronavirus Containment Efforts

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Containment efforts for the COVID-19 Coronavirus are facing significant challenges, with experts suggesting that it may no longer be feasible to prevent its global spread. The virus has a mortality rate of approximately 2-3%, which could lead to a substantial increase in deaths if it becomes as widespread as the flu. Current data indicates around 6,000 cases, with low mortality rates in areas with good healthcare. Vaccine development is underway, but it is unlikely to be ready in time for the current outbreak, highlighting the urgency of the situation. As the outbreak evolves, the healthcare system may face considerable strain, underscoring the need for continued monitoring and response efforts.
  • #2,431
phinds said:
I think you all are overlooking or not considering how totally vicious political partisanship has become in America in the last several years. We have always had partisan divides but not as widespread or a vehement as we have now.

Any discussion of them is likely to quickly devolve into bickering.
Every time I visit a site that deals with or even allows political debate, I put on a helmet and camo. Divisions across all lines: right/left , men/women, millennials/boomers,...And now those blue-eyed bastards want to take over...er, sorry.
 
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  • #2,432
BillTre said:
I'm not overlooking it, but I see no reason to consent to it without it being made clear why it's an issue.

Also, I think it is better to try countering it rather than rolling over and playing intellectually and ethically dead.
Things won't get better without some dose of realism.
The reason is that Greg and the mentors have tried allowing these types of discussions in the past, and while one might hope that the people here could cut through the partisan BS and discuss issues dispassionately, past experience suggests this is not the case.
 
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  • #2,433
vela said:
The reason is that Greg and the mentors have tried allowing these types of discussions in the past, and while one might hope that the people here could cut through the partisan BS and discuss issues dispassionately, past experience suggests this is not the case.
Exactly
 
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  • #2,434
phinds said:
I think you all are overlooking or not considering how totally vicious political partisanship has become in America in the last several years. We have always had partisan divides but not as widespread or a vehement as we have now.

Any discussion of them is likely to quickly devolve into bickering.

Sure, and anti-Asian racism has become quite dangerous as well in recent times.

Overall, I agree with the rationale for avoiding partisan discussions on these forums for the reasons you cite. At the same time, I also lament that fact-based discussions can be muddled and/or shut down through partisan bickering.

It's also important to note that this thread, as it discusses policy issues surrounding how to best proceed with efforts to contain the Coronavirus outbreak will be inherently political as it involves balancing issues such as public health, economics, and personal freedoms (all concerns that various participants in this thread have raised at various points). Though political, these discussions here have largely remained fact-based, respectful and non-partisan, which is a credit to the forum members and its moderation team.

However, it is also important to point out that discussion of seemingly non-partisan issues can be proxies for partisan fights. For example, there seemed to be a pretty clear partisan subtext in the discussion of the effectiveness of Sweden's policies in this thread. Right-leaning media organizations in the US discuss Sweden as a piece of evidence supporting the case on the right for relaxing social distancing constraints. Similarly, one could point to discussions of the early success of South Korea as another topic with some partisan undertones; many left-leaning media organizations contrast the US and South Korea as how the Trump administration failed at containing the outbreak (I am certainly guilty of inserting partisan undertones into such discussions). So, it is almost impossible to completely avoid touching upon partisan issues in this thread without eliminating a lot of useful discussion (it is also important to note that the posted rules don't explicitly ban political or partisan discussions but rather set some reasonable guidelines for these types of discussion). The US government response should be able to be criticized as with any country's government's response so long as the criticism is based on fact and supported by citation to reputable sources (something that can be lacking in the discussions here at times).

These are all important observations to keep in mind, but again I will repeat that the moderation team has been doing a good job at keeping the discussions here respectful and based in facts . I trust that we will be able to continue having productive discussions of these issues here.
 
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  • #2,435
So the reason it doesn't apply to politics in other countries is because what?

"those people" are not so fragile or easily provoked?
 
  • #2,436
BillTre said:
The same has been going on in the US, only not in such a well controlled centralized manner.
What evidence do you have for this?
 
  • #2,437
Re politics... I wonder if the following comentary is allowed: (If not, feel free to delete)

I watched Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on NHK World channel...

My observation:

1. He explained in simple words why the original ¥300,000 was reduced to ¥100,000;

2. He urged everyone to cooperate with the national lockdown until May 5;

3. The questions of the journalists as well as the PM’s answers are marked by respect, deference and no hostility at all;

4. Can’t help comparing it with another daily press conference across from the Pacific Ocean, which leaves me so tired and depressed , many times..
 
  • #2,438
Astronuc said:
Data on Gilead Coronavirus drug (remdesivir) suggests patients are responding to treatment
https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/16...uggests-patients-are-responding-to-treatment/

There is another trial in Pennsylvania.

More on different trials from Gilead.
https://www.gilead.com/purpose/advancing-global-health/covid-19/remdesivir-clinical-trials

It's worth noting that the results are difficult to interpret because there the study was not blinded and there was no control arm to the trial. Randomized controlled trials (the gold standard for such studies) are on the way, so it would be prudent to wait for those before getting too excited about the data.

Here's an informative piece on the leaked info from the trial:
we have to wait for controlled trials in order to say anything definite. Such trials are underway, with actual comparisons to standard of care, but they take longer. Fast trials are generally not very interpretable, interpretable trials are generally not fast. I will be glad to see these numbers when they appear, but don’t believe anyone who runs with a “Cure for Covid!” headline, because it’s extremely unlikely that remdesivir (a single agent with a broad mechanisms that’s not optimized for this virus) is any such thing. Remember, there are as yet no single-small-molecule antiviral cures for anything, Coronavirus or not. My hope for the drug is that it is effective enough to get people out of the hospitals more quickly and to keep more of them off ventilators than if they were not taking it. For that hope to be realized, we need that comparison to the people who are not taking it. This trial doesn’t have it.
https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/04/17/whats-happening-with-remdesivir
 
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  • #2,439
<Mentor note: quoted text removed for being too political>
OK, thanks for clearing that up. You responded to a comment about under reporting #cases to make the response appear rosier with the “same thing is happening here.” I thought you were actually talking about the inaccuracy about reported cases/death rates and were alleging that it was being done to make the situation appear rosier.

The discussion began with Ygg’s post:
No. The under-reporting rate would depend a lot on the availability of testing and the policies about testing/investigating unconfirmed probable cases, which likely differ a lot between locales (e.g. even between different states in the US).

An then Phinds posted:
And in some cases a major factor can be the political environment. Witness the widespread and numerous reports that China deliberately has unreported even the cases and deaths that it knows about because their administration wanted things to appear rosier than reality.
You didn’t actually comment about whether numbers in the US were being manipulated for political reasons.

<comment removed>
 
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  • #2,440
kadiot said:
My observation:
3. The questions of the journalists as well as the PM’s answers are marked by respect, deference and no hostility at all;
Yeah, there are big differences...
 
  • #2,441
atyy said:
We haven't had anything like shelter-in-place until last week, and primary and secondary schools were all still running with physical classes, because things seemed to be under control. So I think the Singapore data is still consistent with the idea from South Korea, and the currently good signs from China, that it is possible to manage things well without shutting everything down. The reason I've always cited South Korea (not Singapore) as the model, is that Singapore had not had any spike until now, so Singapore doesn't show what to do after you have a spike. On the other hand, South Korea had a huge spike, and they dealt with it successfully.

The current spike in Singapore is still atypical (at least with respect to Europe and North America), because it is mainly among construction workers living in dorms where social distancing is hard, so the government has had to find new temporary housing for a very large number of people (about 20,000 people) in a short time.
I think this has been mostly done now, so hopefully there won't be new infections, we'll find out in a few days. The other thing that has to be done is to take care of the welfare of all the people who suddenly have to live in temporary housing (these are foreign workers, so they don't have family here).

Edit: it seems more temporary housing for the workers in dorms in still being set up.

Thanks for the insight. I will also track S. Korea more now.

Although, the dorms outbreak in Singapore makes me wonder about colleges in the U.S. Those have tight living quarters. And, it's also hard to see how college students can just sit out another full year. They are too old to be under their parents' homes and too young/unqualified for earning their own income (to fully support themselves).

It's not just college dorms, but also:

-cruise lines
-casinos
-concert venues
-amusement parks
-airplanes, buses, trains, and subways

Anywhere there is close physical cramming of people, I'm concerned about if we get "business as usual."

Do you know if S. Korea has relaxed their restrictions to the point of having people "back to normal" in their everyday activities now? And, if so, have they STILL kept the case rates down?
 
  • #2,442
kyphysics said:
Thanks for the insight. I will also track S. Korea more now.

Although, the dorms outbreak in Singapore makes me wonder about colleges in the U.S. Those have tight living quarters. And, it's also hard to see how college students can just sit out another full year. They are too old to be under their parents' homes and too young/unqualified for earning their own income (to fully support themselves).

It's not just college dorms, but also:

-cruise lines
-casinos
-concert venues
-amusement parks
-airplanes, buses, trains, and subways

Anywhere there is close physical cramming of people, I'm concerned about if we get "business as usual."

Do you know if S. Korea has relaxed their restrictions to the point of having people "back to normal" in their everyday activities now? And, if so, have they STILL kept the case rates down?
Tokyo, Dhaka in Bangladesh and many citirs in India are some of tge most densely-packed places in the world yet have a low incidence ( at least thus far). So being drnsely-packed may be necessary or highly-correlated but not sufficient. Though I believe the converse has not happenef.
 
  • #2,443
What do you think of this paper
 

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  • #2,444
WWGD said:
Tokyo, Dhaka in Bangladesh and many citirs in India are some of tge most densely-packed places in the world yet have a low incidence ( at least thus far). So being drnsely-packed may be necessary or highly-correlated but not sufficient. Though I believe the converse has not happenef.
Two big factors in mortality (not necessarily case positive) are:

a.) age
b.) obesity

A lot of Asian countries (India a major one) have younger populations + less obese people.

India, specifically, has the world's best population dynamic in ratio of young-to-old.

Wondering if that (and maybe weather?) could play a role in the difference?

The negative side is that it is also very dense in population, poor, and lacks modern top-notch healthcare.
 
  • #2,445
kyphysics said:
Although, the dorms outbreak in Singapore makes me wonder about colleges in the U.S. Those have tight living quarters. And, it's also hard to see how college students can just sit out another full year. They are too old to be under their parents' homes and too young/unqualified for earning their own income (to fully support themselves).

The dorms outbreak in Singapore is among construction workers, not college students. These dorms are not like college dorms in the U.S. They are more like army barracks, where there are 10 people in a room.

Singapore has college dorms too. There were students in these up till about April 3, after which students who were Singaporeans mostly went home. But there were no outbreaks in college dorms up till April 3, whereas there were already several small clusters in the worker dorms.

kyphysics said:
Do you know if S. Korea has relaxed their restrictions to the point of having people "back to normal" in their everyday activities now? And, if so, have they STILL kept the case rates down?

No, they are still not "back to normal". Many schools are online, and I believe (not sure) large gatherings are still banned.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/stevep...ut-normal-is-still-some-way-off/#4da20329760e
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020...-classrooms-remain-empty-200415094228841.html
 
  • #2,446
WWGD said:
Tokyo, Dhaka in Bangladesh and many citirs in India are some of tge most densely-packed places in the world yet have a low incidence ( at least thus far). So being drnsely-packed may be necessary or highly-correlated but not sufficient. Though I believe the converse has not happenef.

kyphysics said:
Two big factors in mortality (not necessarily case positive) are:

a.) age
b.) obesity

A lot of Asian countries (India a major one) have younger populations + less obese people.

India, specifically, has the world's best population dynamic in ratio of young-to-old.

Wondering if that (and maybe weather?) could play a role in the difference?

The negative side is that it is also very dense in population, poor, and lacks modern top-notch healthcare.

Here is an article about what Kerala has done.
https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/04/13/999313/kerala-fight-covid-19-india-coronavirus/
 
  • #2,447
anorlunda said:
Sweden is called an outlier because it has refused lockdown.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/swedish-virus-deaths-top-1000-fueling-criticism-over-strategy/ar-BB12C1xU

View attachment 260744
Ah! Hahahaha!

Lofven’s hands-off model has drawn criticism from across the globe, including from U.S. President Donald Trump.

People should really look at more than one graph before pointing fingers.

Sweden.vs.USA.dead.2020-04-17 at 3.24.40 PM.png


About the only difference in the two plots that I can discern, is that the Swedes don't count their dead on weekends.
 
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  • #2,448
phinds said:
I think you all are overlooking or not considering how totally vicious political partisanship has become in America in the last several years. We have always had partisan divides but not as widespread or a vehement as we have now.
Ditto, up here north of the 49th : partially because they don't know what to do about global warming (that, unlike the nuclear threat of the 1950's, cannot be wished away by simple posturing)

Tying into the actual thread, it's a bit disconcerting to see the divide growing between government and populace. Today(ish) I read where the some levels of government are considering lifting/loosening some of the emergency restrictions.

According to the news report, the general reaction of "the people" is "What are you, nuts ?".
 
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  • #2,449
OmCheeto said:
View attachment 260864

About the only difference in the two plots that I can discern, is that the Swedes don't count their dead on weekends.

It's worth noting that US stay at home orders did not begin until slightly under 4 weeks ago (e.g. New York state, which is driving a large fraction of deaths in the US, imposed its stay at home order on 3/22), so the dynamics of the deaths curve largely reflects the spread of the disease in the absence of social distancing measures. In the next couple of weeks (when we expect to see the effects of stay at home orders imposed in states like NY, CA and IL), if we see Sweden's numbers continue to grow while the US's numbers begin to level off, this would be a sign that Sweden's more lax distancing policies likely do not work. However, if the two curves continue to look similar, this could be a sign that Sweden's more lax policies are similarly effective as distancing policies in the US.
 
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  • #2,450
We have been discussing since January about containment efforts. Has anyone seen it coming that by April it would result in more than 34,000 American deaths and the event in Wuhan repeated almost everywhere in the world with far more deaths than in Wuhan?

If you have foreseen it. Have you not made any efforts to get in touch with CDC in Atlanta, etc.?
 
  • #2,451
Ygggdrasil said:
It's worth noting that US stay at home orders did not begin until slightly under 4 weeks ago (e.g. New York state, which is driving a large fraction of deaths in the US, imposed its stay at home order on 3/22), so the dynamics of the deaths curve largely reflects the spread of the disease in the absence of social distancing measures. In the next couple of weeks (when we expect to see the effects of stay at home orders imposed in states like NY, CA and IL), if we see Sweden's numbers continue to grow while the US's numbers begin to level off, this would be a sign that Sweden's more lax distancing policies likely do not work. However, if the two curves continue to look similar, this could be a sign that Sweden's more lax policies are similarly effective as distancing policies in the US.
Maybe we can look at data from the Netherlands which have been using a policy of lax implementation of isolation.
 
  • #2,452
atyy said:
The dorms outbreak in Singapore is among construction workers, not college students. These dorms are not like college dorms in the U.S. They are more like army barracks, where there are 10 people in a room.

Singapore has college dorms too. There were students in these up till about April 3, after which students who were Singaporeans mostly went home. But there were no outbreaks in college dorms up till April 3, whereas there were already several small clusters in the worker dorms.

No, they are still not "back to normal". Many schools are online, and I believe (not sure) large gatherings are still banned.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/stevep...ut-normal-is-still-some-way-off/#4da20329760e
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020...-classrooms-remain-empty-200415094228841.html
Yes, 10 to a room would be much more dense than a typical U.S. college dorm. However, I'm still skeptical of that analysis mainly because college dorms are also very densely packed by most measures (certainly more so than suburban middle-class homes).

I wonder if age, cleanliness, smoking habits, etc. factored into make Singaporean college dorms less of an outbreak hot spot. If many were asymptomatic, that could also make it hard to gauge.

For sure, when you have college students living in tight quarters, there will be lots of ways the virus can spread vs. most other non-dorm/college life settings. So, it's still a concern for me. Plus, if U.S. college students go back in the Fall, that is when the "warm weather theory" may not be in their favor and virus transmission will be easier in the cold weather.
 
  • #2,453
WWGD said:
Maybe we can look at data from the Netherlands which have been using a policy of lax implementation of isolation.
The Netherlands looks kind of middling to me. I'd look at the outliers. Belgium and Spain have extraordinary numbers.
Until you look at NYC, of course. I replaced the "X" with an arrow at the end of its plot, as it is currently around 2000 deaths per million.

deaths.per.million.various.2020-04-17 at 5.13.35 PM.png
 
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  • #2,454
The general policy is as in other threads: This is a science forum not a politics forum. Science policy is okay if it is about the science:
Evo said:
3) Political posts outside of education and science policy are banned. If reporting a science or education policy news story be sure to avoid any party or politician politics or your thread risks removal.
kadiot said:
I watched Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on NHK World channel...
[...]
2. He urged everyone to cooperate with the national lockdown until May 5;
It's not a lockdown. It's an emergency order that gives the government more power to introduce new measures. Still puzzling how Japan's new cases grow so slowly. But they keep growing.
 
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  • #2,455
I hope this is more specific and sensitive than the previous ones.

One way to separate the already immune (presence of IgG) from the still vulnerable.
Immune people can go back to work.

Positive IgM, quarantine. Confirmatory PCR based test. Hospitalize if symptoms warrant it. Then test later for IgG. Then may go back to work.

Negative result(no IgM, no IgG) will still have to take the necessary precautions. They are vulnerable to future infection.

Meanwhile practice hygiene and physical distancing.

https://www.ft.com/content/6b73b1ba-b14b-4cda-a416-28cf52fc6d81
 
  • #2,456
Positivity rate as a metric?
https://www.theatlantic.com/technol...reak-out-control-test-positivity-rate/610132/
The test-positivity rate, then, is a decent (if unusual) proxy for the severity of an outbreak in an area. And it shows clearly that the U.S. still lags far behind other countries in the course of fighting its outbreak. South Korea—which discovered its first Coronavirus case on the same day as the U.S.—has tested more than half a million people, or about 1 percent of its population, and discovered about 10,500 cases. The U.S. has now tested 3.2 million people, which is also about 1 percent of its population, but it has found more than 630,000 cases. So while the U.S. has a 20 percent positivity rate, South Korea’s is only about 2 percent—a full order of magnitude smaller.

South Korea is not alone in bringing its positivity rate down: America’s figure dwarfs that of almost every other developed country. https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection.html, Germany and Denmark have positivity rates from 6 to 8 percent. https://www1.health.gov.au/internet/main/publishing.nsf/Content/1D03BCB527F40C8BCA258503000302EB/%24File/covid_19_australia_epidemiology_report_10__reporting_week_ending_23_59_aest_5_april_2020.pdf and New Zealand have 2 percent positivity rates. Even Italy—which faced one of the world’s most ravaging outbreaks—has a 15 percent rate. It has found nearly 160,000 cases and conducted more than a million tests. Virtually the only wealthy country with a larger positivity rate than the U.S. is the United Kingdom, where more than 30 percent of people tested for the virus have been positive.
It seems any number (ratio or rate) is problematic at this point if testing protocols are inconsistent.

Meanwhile - CDC is studying an interesting circumstance in a Boston homeless shelter.
https://www.boston25news.com/news/c...-homeless-shelter/Z253TFBO6RG4HCUAARBO4YWO64/
Of the 397 people tested, 146 people tested positive. Not a single one had any symptoms.
What are the implications for testing as the nation 're-opens'?

In New York State, the 5 counties/boroughs of NY City have high case loads.
In counties north of the city and along the Hudson River, the numbers drop as one travels north.

1,262 Hudson Valley residents have died from the Coronavirus (4/16)
https://midhudsonnews.com/2020/04/16/over-1200-hudson-valley-residents-die-from-covid-19/
Code:
  County     Total   NH/LTC  Fraction
Westchester   640     244     0.381
Rockland      389      47     0.121
Orange        133      72     0.541
Putnam         31      10     0.323
Dutchess       38      11     0.290
Ulster         14       2     0.143
Sullivan        7       2     0.286
Columbia       10       7     0.700
Greene          0       0       -
NH/LTC = Nursing home, long-term care center.

Comparing two counties (San Diego, CA and Dutchess, NY) about 2800 miles apart but with similar number of positive cases, and two others Mercer, NJ (140 mi from Dutchess) and Snohomish, WA (2900 miles from Dutchess).
Code:
County              Cases   Deaths   Population (2019)
San Diego, CA        2158      70      3338000
Snohomish, WA        2032      89       822083
Mercer, NJ           2123     101       367430
Dutchess, NY         2142      40       294218

BBC - In South Dakota, one meat processing plant with about 3700 employees is linked to 644 confirmed cases (employees and those they infected outside the plant) by 15 April 15, when it finally closed. the plant had become a major hotspot in the US. "In total, Smithfield-related infections account for 55% of the caseload in the state, which is far outpacing its far more populous Midwestern neighbor states in cases per capita."
Ref: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52311877

Another visualization tool
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/us-map
 
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  • #2,459
I just learned that reinfection is a possibility with a viral infection, especially if you have a sub-clinical infection (mild) and have not mounted much of an immune response against the virus. Reinfection is also possible within the window after the first infection and before you develop antibodies that can fight the 2nd infection. That window also depends on how much your immune system was "triggered".
 
  • #2,460
WWGD said:
Tokyo, Dhaka in Bangladesh and many citirs in India are some of tge most densely-packed places in the world yet have a low incidence

One obviuous factor is the population's mobility. Dhaka's airport has almost an order of magnitude less traffic than NYC's three.
 

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