COVID COVID-19 Coronavirus Containment Efforts

[jbriggs444]

I find this problematic because Covid-19 is deadly to elderly, the very young and those with medical conditions. We can't tell the number of people who actually died in Covid-19 out of the total number of deaths.

It is the same for many diseases. They are deadly to the elderly, to the very young and to those with certain medical conditions. But regardless of this, with only two putative "positive" events, one is not going to improve the trustworthiness of a statistical measure greatly by carefully determining whether a particular death was or was not caused by Covid-19. One is going to improve the measure by waiting for an increased sample size.

 

[bhobba]

Local news said we should wait till next year (18 months required)

I know - there is differences in views on this. I have heard highly qualified immunologists saying the same. This is the timetable UQ is working to - we will see who is right. Fingers crossed UQ is right because everyday we seem closer to a pandemic.

Thanks
Bill

 

[eachus]

Just a post to defend (real) statistics. Computing the mortality of an epidemic by computing deaths/number of cases is wrong. Especially early in an outbreak, deaths will trail confirmed cases significantly. There are two ways to compute a reasonable estimator. If you have good data on patient recoveries you can use Deaths/(deaths+number of recoveries). If deaths occur relatively early compared to recoveries, you need an ARIMA (time series) model with different lags for deaths and recoveries.

Where does this lead for Covid-19? Given the data here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ the death rate is around 9.4%. Around 10% is probably a better statement that takes into account all the variables in the figures.

 

[Ygggdrasil]

It must be tried to give us the time to develop the silver bullet - the vaccine. Groups around the world are working around the clock to get the best one. They already have it (evidently a number of groups do including the UQ group I posted about which has the patent for a fast track technique being used - but this is a global effort - when a possible pandemic is at stake who holds the patent goes out the widow - as it should)- it's just determining effectiveness and safety. The time-table is April for a vaccine to be used by first responders, then June - July for general distribution. I listen to what the UQ says on the matter - even highly credentialed immunologists saying years do not seem to be up with the latest technology we now have.

Do you have sources for these timetables? A recent press release from the university suggests that they don't expect the vaccine to be ready for clinical testing until after the middle of the year:

The group continues to work to a much-accelerated timetable to keep on track for investigational clinical testing after the middle of the year.

https://www.uq.edu.au/news/article/2020/02/significant-step’-covid-19-vaccine-quest

Testing can take a while, so it will be a while after testing begins before the vaccine is available for general distribution. This also doesn't take into account the time needed to scale manufacture of the vaccine. For example, Science reports that the UQ team would need 6 months to produce 200,000 doses of the vaccine (far fewer than would be needed to contain a worldwide pandemic).

 

[mfb]

If UQ alone can produce 200,000 in 6 months, how much can we produce globally? Several millions would cover the most critical medical staff.

 

[Ygggdrasil]

Just a post to defend (real) statistics. Computing the mortality of an epidemic by computing deaths/number of cases is wrong. Especially early in an outbreak, deaths will trail confirmed cases significantly. There are two ways to compute a reasonable estimator. If you have good data on patient recoveries you can use Deaths/(deaths+number of recoveries). If deaths occur relatively early compared to recoveries, you need an ARIMA (time series) model with different lags for deaths and recoveries.

Where does this lead for Covid-19? Given the data here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ the death rate is around 9.4%. Around 10% is probably a better statement that takes into account all the variables in the figures.

This approach is also wrong. Infection with the Covid-19 virus results in many mild cases which are not reported, so your approach greatly overestimates the mortality of the disease. The WHO has cited a few studies which try to model the proportion of mild cases and estimate that the mortality of the disease (or more precisely, the infection fatality ratio or IFR) to be 0.5-1.0%. For more information, see these studies (though note that only the first has been published in a peer reviewed journal):
https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0383/9/2/523
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-2019-nCoV-severity-10-02-2020.pdf
https://institutefordiseasemodeling...ality_rates_and_pandemic_risk_assessment.html

 

[Ygggdrasil]

If UQ alone can produce 200,000 in 6 months, how much can we produce globally? Several millions would cover the most critical medical staff.

From the Science piece I cited earlier:

Even when experimental vaccines work in clinical trials, mass producing them quickly is inevitably a huge challenge. If Moderna devoted all of its vaccine manufacturing capabilities to one product, it could make 100 million doses in a year, Bancel says. Inovio can only produce 100,000 doses a year now, but is “actively speaking with a larger manufacturer,” Kim says, which could increase their output to “multimillion” doses. The Queensland team says it could make 200,000 doses in 6 months.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/202...te-new-coronavirus-vaccines-they-may-come-too

I don't know enough about the specifics of the vaccines produces to know how easily it would be for one facility to produce a vaccine based on another group's specific vaccine technology.

 

[chemisttree]

Local news said we should wait till next year (18 months required)

During the 2009 swine flu outbreak, several countries (Australia, Great Britain and the US) promised to fulfill export orders and donations (US promised to export 10%) only to withdraw those offers until their own domestic needs were met. In the US there were manufacturing problems that seriously curtailed supply to the point that there wasn’t enough vaccine to go around for our healthcare workers. We didn’t receive vaccine from offshore until mid October, which was too late to be effective in stopping the outbreak in the US.
I believe that unless you have a domestic production capacity sufficient to fill domestic needs and they don’t have problems, not much can be guaranteed as far as projected delivery. If a country has little to no domestic production, like most of Africa, it is at the mercy of those that do. Let's hope we don’t have a repeat of 2009 here.

 

[OmCheeto]

To @chemisttree and @OmCheeto ,

@Ygggdrasil is correct in that mortality from respiratory disease is not uniform across populations. People who are elderly or with pre-existing medication conditions have much higher mortality rates from all respiratory diseases (including the common flu) than younger people or people who are in good health.

The 2 deaths in Italy as far as we know were among those who were elderly, and it may well be possible that they had other medical conditions that would have made them especially at risk from any serious respiratory infections, not just COVID-19. So we cannot conclude that somehow COVID-19 is more virulent or deadly based on such limited data.

Seems reasonable.
Btw, did you notice the odd demographics of the Singapore "confirmed infected"?
They're missing a very large age group.

I just checked the latest numbers, and there's still no one in the 3-24 age group.
I also checked the age demographics at wiki. Age groups seem fairly evenly distributed.
Anyone have a clue or guess why there is no one in that age group that is infected?

 

[chemisttree]

OVERHEARD: "When a pandemic is declared, stringent containment measures will be abandoned and priorities will shift to efficient case management and mitigation of transmission. Travel bans may still remain but will be less essential to the response."

Is it true?

I think that’s what we’re seeing in China now where positive cases are being warehoused in military barracks and convention centers. Even those emergency hospitals look suspiciously like containment facilities rather than hospitals.

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3870468

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2020/02/06/world/asia/coronavirus-china.amp.html

 

[chemisttree]

Btw, did you notice the odd demographics of the Singapore "confirmed infected"?
They're missing a very large age group.

View attachment 257620
I just checked, and there's still no one in the 3-24 age group.

Anyone have a clue or guess why there is no one in that age group that is infected?

It could be due to the superspreader’s contacts at church.

 

[chemisttree]

To @chemisttree

So we cannot conclude that somehow COVID-19 is more virulent or deadly based on such limited data.

Yes, I believe one of the deaths was a cancer patient. I’ve seen firsthand what treatment does to the immune system.

I said,” # of critical cases ratio to total cases approaching 40%! Something is not right there. CFR is ~5%. Not right at all.”

 

[dRic2]

Lets hope we don’t have a repeat of 2009 here.

I don't really know what happened because I was like 12 at that time. Btw I've been to the doctor today for a regular check up and at the end of the visit she said something like: "Next week we are getting it. At least I am." But she didn't seem too worried. A little bit, but not very much. Don't know if she was pretending to make me feel safer though...

 

[chemisttree]

...at the end of the visit she said something like: "Next week we are getting it. At least I am." But she didn't seem too worried. A little bit, but not very much. Don't know if she was pretending to make me feel safer though...

That is the best news I’ve heard since the beginning of this thing. If things get dire and you need something that I might be able to ship, PM me.

 

[kadiot]

Seems reasonable.
Btw, did you notice the odd demographics of the Singapore "confirmed infected"?
They're missing a very large age group.

View attachment 257620
I just checked the latest numbers, and there's still no one in the 3-24 age group.
I also checked the age demographics at wiki. Age groups seem fairly evenly distributed.
Anyone have a clue or guess why there is no one in that age group that is infected?

We need to protect our elderly from this virus. Younger people will probably just have what looks like a bad cold. Older people with chronic illnesses have a much higher risk of dying based from China CDC first major report dated February 14, 2020. Avoid unnecessary travel especially if you are above 60 years old.

 

[kadiot]

China CDC released on 14.02.2020 their first major report on Covid-19 based on 72,314 patient records & 44,672 confirmed cases in Mainland China as of 11.02.2020. The paper shows that the fatality rate gradually increases with age. For example, there were no deaths among children aged nine or younger while it stood at 0.2 percent for people aged between 10 and 39. It increased to 3.6 percent in the 60-69 age bracket before rising to 8 percent among those aged 70 to 79 and 14.8 percent among people in their 80s or older.

 

[kadiot]

Any one have a clue why there are no deaths aged nine or younger? Interesting...

 

[Rive]

Not exactly new, but interesting: Two thirds of COVID-19 cases exported from mainland China may be undetected

It would be able to explain the explosive rise in cases in the early phase once a new territory conquered.

 

[kadiot]

Not exactly new, but interesting: Two thirds of COVID-19 cases exported from mainland China may be undetected

It would be able to explain the explosive rise in cases in the early phase once a new territory conquered.

Very interesting indeed.

There's a good news. This a breakthrough. Singapore discovered an important link today between two existing COVID-19 clusters — the Grace Assembly of God church (our biggest cluster) and the Life Church and Missions church.

Cases 83 and 91 had only mild symptoms earlier, and had not been diagnosed with COVID-19. But a new serological test — which detects antibodies in the blood, instead of the virus itself — done subsequently confirmed that they had been infected earlier, and linked the two clusters together.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/new...uVhflU9azrd2KmWk3Wd3eEtDl2vreS49luhwA1_Zm8I5I

 

[kadiot]

Anyone know where available the Mobile App which alerts you once you are near a person contracted the covid19?

 

[hagopbul]

What moderate drinking or smoking doing to its spreading inside human body

 

[mfb]

Any one have a clue why there are no deaths aged nine or younger? Interesting...

Can be just statistics. Example: If 1 in 20 infected people is 9 or younger and they have 0.1% death rate, then we expect 1 in 20,000 infections to lead to a death in that age range. Quite possible that this didn't lead to a death yet.

 

[OmCheeto]

Can be just statistics. Example: If 1 in 20 infected people is 9 or younger and they have 0.1% death rate, then we expect 1 in 20,000 infections to lead to a death in that age range. Quite possible that this didn't lead to a death yet.

It's a lot more apparent when you see the source numbers.

[ref]

 

[chemisttree]

To @chemisttree and @OmCheeto ,

@Ygggdrasil is correct in that mortality from respiratory disease is not uniform across populations. People who are elderly or with pre-existing medication conditions have much higher mortality rates from all respiratory diseases (including the common flu) than younger people or people who are in good health.

Although that’s true in COVID-19, it isn’t always the case. Swine flu 2009 had this mortality distribution:

https://www.cdc.gov/H1N1FLU/images/graphs/qa_graphC.gif

 

[morrobay]

Is there any information/data about people who are exposed to this virus but are not infected? I suppose this applies to any pathogen: That being in good health, not smoking would decrease infections from exposures. And on that subject eating a lot of raw garlic is in order.

 

[kadiot]

Is there any information/data about people who are exposed to this virus but are not infected? I suppose this applies to any pathogen: That being in good health, not smoking would decrease infections from exposures. And on that subject eating a lot of raw garlic is in order.

I have no data about people who are exposed to this virus but are not infected. I agree that smoking increases infection. The greater percentage of men compared with women with COVID-19 have died in China, and this may have been partly because more males smoke in China.

 

[kadiot]

Whether the WHO calls the Coronavirus outbreak a pandemic, however, is somewhat moot because the measures taken to prevent its spread and treat its infection remain the same no matter the label.

https://fortune.com/2020/02/25/coro...uaxvDY2QDKUg5YU9d05IlzpUo6kkOySX6legj1YhPjKTw

 

[kadiot]

Is it true that Covid-19 update shows mortality rate up to 3% the past 3 days? Anyone please share your stats?

 

[chemisttree]

I wouldn’t trust early data in recently infected areas. It takes a significant event, like unusual death rates, to diagnose a new respiratory death at the height of flu season. Over time the CFR will likely be in line with the ~2% rate of diagnosed cases unless mass testing is done like what is happening now in S Korea. When mild cases are included, that number will likely fall much closer to 1%.

 

[Mary Conrads Sanburn]

Homeland Preparedness News

U.S. braces for spread of Coronavirus on home turf
Tuesday, February 25, 2020 by Kim Riley

The White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB) on Monday night sent Congress a total $2.5 billion emergency supplemental spending request to fight the Coronavirus outbreak, which top U.S. government officials warned will inevitably spread across the nation.

“The administration believes additional federal resources are necessary to take steps to prepare for a potential worsening of the situation in the United States,” wrote Russell Vought, acting director of OMB, in a Feb. 24 letter sent to U.S. Vice President Michael Pence, in his capacity as president of the U.S. Senate, and copied to several federal lawmakers.

[ . . . ]

###
https://homelandprepnews.com/featured/44777-u-s-braces-for-spread-of-coronavirus-on-home-turf/