COVID COVID-19 Coronavirus Containment Efforts

AI Thread Summary
Containment efforts for the COVID-19 Coronavirus are facing significant challenges, with experts suggesting that it may no longer be feasible to prevent its global spread. The virus has a mortality rate of approximately 2-3%, which could lead to a substantial increase in deaths if it becomes as widespread as the flu. Current data indicates around 6,000 cases, with low mortality rates in areas with good healthcare. Vaccine development is underway, but it is unlikely to be ready in time for the current outbreak, highlighting the urgency of the situation. As the outbreak evolves, the healthcare system may face considerable strain, underscoring the need for continued monitoring and response efforts.
  • #601
 
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Biology news on Phys.org
  • #602
If the H1N1 Swine flu of 2009 experience is repeated, about half of the population may not believe the eventual COVID-19 vaccine would be safe (40-45%). A similar fraction of the US has had a flu shot this year, which is about 45% effective against this year’s flu mélange.
 
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  • #603
jedishrfu said:
I'm not sure what the article wants to tell readers. Yes, obviously we are not facing an exact copy of the Spanish flu. Medicine advanced massively in the last 100 years. We are not recovering from a world war either - fewer people are weakened from wars, more people have access to enough food and so on. But despite all these advances 1-2% of the patients die. Without modern medicine that fraction could be as high as 10%. So what is the take-away message here? Covid-19 as virus is worse than the Spanish flu?
We have seen H1N1 (closely related to the 1918 virus) again in 2009. It was a relatively mild disease with a low case fatality rate.
 
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  • #604
One key difference was that the Spanish flu attacked the young and overstimulated their immune response whereas in the Coronavirus the mortality is based more on your age with 80+ at 15% mortality.
 
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  • #605
I just saw a very interesting and informative interview on the topic (from today):
Video description said:
CEO of the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations Dr Richard Hatchett explains the long-term dangers of the Covid-19 Coronavirus - saying it's the scariest outbreak he's dealt with in his 20-year career.
Coronavirus expert: 'War1 is an appropriate analogy' (Mar 6, 2020, Channel 4 News)


1 If I remember correctly, the word "war" was used as an analogy to how the Chinese society was tackling the situation with the virus.
 
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  • #606
chemisttree said:
What happens when the Mayor declares a COVID-19 state of emergency...

View attachment 258243

This is where the bleach would be. It will soon be restocked. Strangely, the chlorine pool “bleach” (10% sodium hypochlorite) hasn’t been touched. Sorry, no pictures of that section.

View attachment 258245
This is where the surface cleaners and sanitary wipes would go. It will soon be restocked. There is no shortage of this stuff.

People are also buying WATER! Why?
It's also in Singapore and Australia that fear factor has set in and panic buying has started in some places.

I wonder why are people buying bottled water too. I lived in Perth, Australia and I am now based in Singapore. Tap water is clean and safe. Water will still come out of the tap.

Lack of information, there are different types of disaster scenarios requiring different approaches to mitigate and respond. Preparing and responding to supertyphoon, earthquake and pandemics require different approaches and strategies.
 
  • #607
Vanadium 50 said:
Because that's what you do in an emergency that will completely wipe out civilization.
Not me. . . a long time ago, I stocked up on some really good stuff that works on almost

everything. . . . 😌It's unavailable now, and I got the last of it. . . . :sorry:The supplier is now defunct, but it was invented by. . . The Pink and Lilly Company®
jedishrfu said:
no more jokes[/size]
Just a tiny, tiny one ?[/size]
.
 
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  • #608
Vanadium 50 said:
Because that's what you do in an emergency that will completely wipe out civilization.

Just look at the toilet paper buying in Australia. Seriously while some theories have been posted as to why, and I haven't read them yet, it looks simply like the madness of crowds. Personally I am doing what the experts such as Professor Nigel McMillan says, who is doing a great job of getting information out there:
https://www.skynews.com.au/details/_6138607264001

So try and stay healthy, wash hands and all that stuff, and if you have diabetes like me constantly take your readings and keep it under 8. I cracked last night and had a Pizza, was about 11 when I went to bed, but is under 8 now. So try not to crack - either irrationally buying toilet paper or eating the wrong foods with diabetes. To US readers - we use a different scale for measuring blood sugar than you do, in our scale most doctors do not worry if its 10 or under, would prefer 8 or under - 5 is normal non diabetic levels.

Thanks
Bill
 
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  • #610
'I'm scared to lose my job and I'm scared to die': Retail employees describe working conditions as Coronavirus panic heightens nationwide

Hayley Peterson and Shoshy Ciment


Mar 5, 2020, 6:37 AM

US retail workers are under intense pressure to keep shelves stocked amid a rash of panic buying over Coronavirus concerns, according to interviews with 20 employees of Walmart, Target, and CVS.
Employees also expressed fears about getting sick and missing work due to what they described as strict attendance policies and limited or no paid sick leave.
"At Target, we've been prioritizing our team, starting by ensuring that all of our China-based team members have been able to work from home," Target CEO Brian Cornell said during a call with investors earlier this week. "More broadly, we spent considerable time focused on the best way to support our team members all around the world to make sure they stay healthy and safe.
A Walmart spokesperson said the company is closely monitoring the situation and will adjust policies as needed.
"We are actively monitoring the environment for COVID-19 related risks as we develop workplace plans to help ensure our employees stay safe and healthy," a CVS spokesperson told Business Insider in a statement.


At a Target store in Michigan, an employee in the electronics department has stopped greeting his favorite customers with handshakes and hugs amid the growing threat of coronavirus, and he's started to worry about what would happen if he got sick.

"You don't get paid if you call out," the employee, Robert O'Banner, said in an interview with Business Insider. "I don't have the money to call off a day."

On the other side of the country, in Oregon, Robert Davis is growing concerned about the likelihood of exposure to the virus through his job stocking shelves at a Walmart store.

"We're in contact with hundreds of people every week," Davis said, noting that he also handles hundreds of products during his shifts. He said he's worried about what his family would do if he died.

"It weighs a lot on me," he said.

[ . . . ]

###

https://www.businessinsider.com/wal...-working-conditions-during-coronavirus-2020-3

WOW! Makes me cry~
Walmart, Target, and CVS are stores I go to!
 
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  • #611
atyy said:
SXSW CANCELED: 2020 festival will not be held amid COVID-19 concerns

We are getting a LOT of event cancellations here in Aus. It seems our governments policy is relying heavily on this sort of thing ie social distancing. We are a country with a lot of open space and a sparse population after all. My emergency plan is a good friend has this little house on a property a couple of hours outside of Toowoomba and will move in there.

Thanks
Bill
 
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  • #612
I was intrigued by this post. Most of the health organizations recommendation is clear: social distancing, travel limit and other contingency measures, and if people choose not to follow... (shrug)

Anyway I thought I'd post it here.

Here it is. Any comment would be appreciated

One of the things that I think is erroneous is the belief that the World by itself will be able to contain the virus spread by limiting travel and decreasing contact. Travel bans have never been proven to stop the spread of virus and the avoidance of any form of contact is immensely difficult.
Make no bones about it, it will spread.
Sars and Mers-Cov, both etiologic agents of deadly pneumonias have no known vaccine and no pharmaceutical magic bullet.
But.
The viruses just waned, decreasing in the amount of people infected and is now out of the World's immediate concern, just waiting in the sidelines.
The same thing will happen with Covid-19.
One of the things that was quietly noted in the recent week was the fact that the number of the reported new cases from the rest of the World, for the first time, outnumbered that which came from China. This is expected and is due to a number of things; among which are the better pick-up or diagnosis rate, faster and more reliable tests, popular awareness and others. It does not necessarily mean that the World is getting worse. or that armageddon is coming.
Whether the warmer months will decrease the rate of spread remains to be seen. But before the debacle truly ends, I would expect the number of cases in the world in total to increase. I would also expect the management of the critical cases to get better. This will initially jump the reported cases and the mortality up.
However, if the scientists are correct in assuming that the R-naught is around 2, the reported cases will decrease and...
This will translate to a lower mortality rate.
One of the unfortunate things however that is happening is its effect on the status of economies and the social impact the disease has on our way of life.
We shun how terror had been sown its disruption on our collective lives.
Unfortunately like a zombie apocalypse, this disease similarly has revealed how fragile our humanity is and how fear affects our resolve to maintain a world socio-politico-economic order.
As I have said in another thread, the Philippines, economically delicate as it is, is predicted to suffer a decrease in GDP of about 0.7+ percent and already the PSEi has decreased from 7900-8000+ for 6800+. People had made, erroneously, a mad dash for facemasks. Racist comments abound and this is not only limited to social media.
The next battle will not involve the virus itself.
Fomented by sharing of fabrications and an irresponsible media which has, at the very least, allowed the populace to doubt their medical vanguard, It is utterly shameless how the collective adult community has responded to this international predicament.
Like always, it is crucial that we screw our heads right. It is about time that this ragtag World we live in believe in the Science, not because it is right, but because is logical.
Word.
 
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  • #613
Another interesting interview on the topic:
Video description said:
We speak to Dr Bruce Aylward, the current Assistant Director-General of the World Health Organization, and the leader of the WHO team that visited Wuhan in China - where the outbreak began, for two weeks in February.
Coronavirus: W.H.O. expert interviewed after trip to Wuhan (Mar 4, 2020, Channel 4 News)
(he also talks about various useful efforts that have been, and can be made)


Edit:

And here are two informative pages on the WHO site:
 
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  • #614
bhobba said:
We are getting a LOT of event cancellations here in Aus. It seems our governments policy is relying heavily on this sort of thing ie social distancing. We are a country with a lot of open space and a sparse population after all. My emergency plan is a good friend has this little house on a property a couple of hours outside of Toowoomba and will move in there.

Thanks
Bill
Yeah I was due at a conference in two weeks in London now cancelled. First time in 13 years bearing in mind the conference went ahead despite several terror attacks in city over the last few years . Brings it home a little bit.
 
  • #615
I wouldn't criticize folks who decide to stock up on certain items. Having lived both in hurricane alleys and places where winter storms can knock out power for days, I've always felt it prudent to keep enough food, water, and medical supplies on hand for a few weeks. There are lots of things that can knock out normal supply chains. Uninterrupted supply chains seem more like a historical anomaly for the late 20th century western world than a historical constant that can be expected to continue indefinitely. Is it better to plan for a period of self-sufficiency or dependency in the aftermath of some disaster?

Coronavirus just adds one more reason to stock up on some basic supplies. Most really big disasters occur when multiple factors combine - war and disease, hurricane and cholera, terrorist strike and natural disaster, flood and nuclear failure, viral pandemic and grid failure?

Human overreactions can exacerbate any disaster, and while that is possible with coronavirus, I don't think stocking up on basic supplies constitutes an overreaction. Though I don't expect it, it is not unreasonable to prepare for the possibility that fear and quarantines could lead to some supply chain interruptions, including utilities, especially if combined with a second disaster occurring at about the same time.
 
  • #616
There is an interesting debate here in Florida. It relates to sick pay for workers. The story on TV said that 10% of public sector employees and 30% of private sector employees have no right to paid sick leave. This is seen as an impediment to people heeding advice to stay home if sick thus reducing the speed of spread of the virus. The debate in Florida centers on legal obstacles to providing such coverage. There may be additional obstacles.

To illustrate who might be impacted they showed a number of minimum wage workers on TV. But minimum wage work might also be vital.

But some employees are vital to the supply of critical infrastructure and critical services. For them, the advice to stay home must be reversed, if they are truly vital. We need to keep the power grid running, We need to keep grocery stores open. For those vital people to get to work, they must have transportation. If the schools are closed, they must have child care. Doctors and engineers might be vital, but retail cashiers, truck drivers, and baby sitting, might also be vital.

It exposes a priority issue that is easy to forget in our haste to make knee jerk decisions in this crisis.

Slowing the speed of spread of COVID19 is a public health issue. (See #502) But it is not priority 1. A higher priority than the virus is keeping people supplied with food, electricity, heat, health services, ... Employees vital to those things must be exceptions to the recommended behaviors for everyone else.

Vital status might be a fuzzy concept. How many employees are needed to open the store? How many to keep the power grid up and running? Some things can continue short-handed, but how short is too short is a fuzzy question.

I sympathize with information providers. In the massive rush to educate everyone in zero time, it can be exceedingly difficult to mention that there are exceptions to every rule.

How do we assess the risk of overreaction compared to the risk of the virus? That's not an easy question.
 
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  • #618
anorlunda said:
I sympathize with information providers. In the massive rush to educate everyone in zero time, it can be exceedingly difficult to mention that there are exceptions to every rule.

How do we assess the risk of overreaction compared to the risk of the virus? That's not an easy question.
You're talking about strategic misinformation, opaquness, or generally treating the public like children? I'm not really representative of the average US citizen, but so far efforts to control the message and flow of information have only made me feel more uneasy. People can do their own research nowadays. Lack of openness can lead to an erosion of credibility (not just to the public, but generally). The whole world is watching.

That said, it does seem a lot of people are buying it, and you're right that public awareness right now will lead to a worsened short term societal/economic impact. I'm seeing a whole lot of misleading reassuring memes, that's for sure, and a lot of people are not taking it seriously at all. Many of these people don't even know how to calculate a percentage, they just are afraid of fear, and will buy whatever people are selling if it makes them feel better.

However, mitigating the spread (at least slowing it down) should be the main priority now seeing as we are currently experiencing extremely critical supply shortages, and are already basically out of traditional quarantined beds for critically ill patients. Health care workers are now scrounging for masks, and implementing emergency rationing protocols. It seems that officials have been bungling the response left and right. If we don't start taking it seriously as a society, then the spread will just be that much harder to contain, and in the long term, the hospitals, health care workers, and their patients (of all kinds) will suffer that much more, and the panic we're trying to avoid will naturally get that much worse in response.

It will be really sad to see health care workers forced to treat COVID-19 patients without masks, and under faulty quarantine environments. But it will also be troubling to see people lose their homes, go into debt, or just forgo care altogether due to economic pressure.

Dr. Courtney said:
I've always felt it prudent to keep enough food, water, and medical supplies on hand for a few weeks.

Is 2 weeks really enough though? Besides supply chain issues, if you get a cough and fever, you're supposed to self isolate for at least 2 weeks alone (even though you can likely be contagious for a month or so); not to say that most people who are infected are actually doing this though.
 
  • #619
Jarvis323 said:
However, mitigating the spread (at least slowing it down) should be the main priority
That contradicts what I said, that food/water/power/... are more important than the virus. Perhaps you mean those things are too obvious to mention or too unshakable to have their supply threatened, but I think they do need explicit mention.
 
  • #620
anorlunda said:
That contradicts what I said, that food/water/power/... are more important than the virus. Perhaps you mean those things are too obvious to mention or too unshakable to have their supply threatened, but I think they do need explicit mention.

You're right, but the two are correlated. If we let it get worse, to try to keep the power on, then we have a harder time keeping the power on later. I think better containment earlier is favorable, since it is easier to slow down while it is still small, we have the possibility to ramp up manufacturing to meet shortages, and it is possible that warm weather will help.

I don't know what the solution is. The biggest crisis right now (I believe) is medical shortages, lack of suitable beds, and our generally fragile health care system. That's already a current crisis, and the spread in the US has basically just started.
 
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  • #622
Jarvis323 said:
Is 2 weeks really enough though? Besides supply chain issues, if you get a cough and fever, you're supposed to self isolate for at least 2 weeks alone (even though you can likely be contagious for a month or so); not to say that most people who are infected are actually doing this though.

I should have been more explicit than "a few weeks" when it comes to emergency stocks of food, water, and medical supplies. In most of North America, 2-3 weeks has usually been enough when it comes to hurricanes and winter storms interrupting supply chains. But my preference is more toward 4-6 weeks, since I don't relish the thought of fighting the crowds trying to be in the front of the line when supply chains are re-established. 4-6 weeks also makes more sense for self-isolation in cases of infectious disease.

But if the only hit to supply chains is a sick person's ability to get to the grocery store, these days one can order up your groceries in many places and have them left on the porch with no risk of others catching the disease from you as long as you pay electronically and have zero contact in the process. The bigger challenge occurs is there is another hit to the normal supply chains at the same time. That's the more compelling motive to stock up for 4-6 weeks. (This also assumes the financial ability to pay a premium for delivery. Fresh groceries delivered are a lot more expensive than bulk rice and beans and canned veggies stocked in advance.)
 
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  • #623
anorlunda said:
Slowing the speed of spread of COVID19 is a public health issue. (See #502) But it is not priority 1. A higher priority than the virus is keeping people supplied with food, electricity, heat, health services, ... Employees vital to those things must be exceptions to the recommended behaviors for everyone else.

They are not exceptions to the recommendation that one should stay home if one is ill with cold-like or flu-like symptoms. If a "vital" person has the virus, he is exposing his "vital" co-workers to the virus. Perhaps the "vital" co-worker might have only a mild illness, but he could pass it to his elderly parents who might succumb to the virus. Hopefully, his job will then be considered so vital that he should do his job instead of attending to their funereal arrangements.
 
  • #624
anorlunda said:
There may be additional obstacles.
I'm again puzzled how the US sees challenges that are a non-issue everywhere else. All the people who keep the European electricity grid, water, and all the other infrastructure running have paid sick leave. And you know what? We have fewer/shorter electricity outages than the US (don't have statistics for water, but I have never seen that being interrupted), and I don't think we had any outage that was caused by a lack of staff due to the flu.
 
  • #625
mfb said:
I'm again puzzled how the US sees challenges that are a non-issue everywhere else. All the people who keep the European ...
We value freedom. Sometimes to our own detriment. Some Americans look upon Europeans as too willing to conform (to say it in a non-inflammatory way.)

atyy said:
They are not exceptions to the recommendation that one should stay home if one is ill with cold-like or flu-like symptoms.
Sorry, you're correct. I didn't explain myself well.

My comment was triggered by a TV report about panic buying at a Costco store. They interviewed the employees. The employees expressed concern at being forced to be in the middle of large crowds, and that they might phone in sick. So the sick pay issue applies to people who call in sick, but who aren't really sick.

The more scared people become, the more likely they are to stay home to protect themselves, rather than protect the public. It is like the pictures of empty sports stadiums in Europe during a game. Those 100000 sport fans weren't all sick, they were frightened or they were ordered to stay away.

Vital employees should be an exception to the avoid crowds rule.

I stand by my main point, is that I fear overreaction more than I fear the virus.
 
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  • #626
I made a small amount of reasonable hand sanitizer today by mixing a capful of isopropyl alcohol with a few squirts of hand lotion. It was kind of fun. We also went out to dinner at a favorite restaurant last night to give support to a business we knew would be having a slow day. Very few guests and easy parking for once. I hope this emergency increases support for paid sick leave for more of the workers whose businesses I frequent.
 
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  • #627
mathwonk said:
I made a small amount of reasonable hand sanitizer today by mixing a capful of isopropyl alcohol with a few squirts of hand lotion.
In the store today, I saw that rubbing alcohol was sold out, but there was plenty of hydrogen peroxide. I see that peroxide is listed as an antibacterial sanitize. Can we use peroxide to sanitize hands exposed to a virus?
 
  • #628
The unthinkable has happened. For over a month. Many friends and people thought somehow we wouldn't be affected either because of our unique weather, our recent volcano eruption which some hoped sterilizes the air, or grace from God.

But it happened. We have now confirmed local transmission. And we are in a state of emergency. Our official called it "Red Alert Sublevel-1". How many sublevels are there before it gets to level 1? Is it related to the Biohazard Sublevels in Ebola?

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/03/07/20/code-red-philippines-coronavirus-cases-rise-to-6-doh-confirms-local-transmission

"In the event of a sustained community transmission or an increasing number of local cases whose links cannot be established, Duque said the strategy will be shifted from an intensive contact tracing to the implementation of community-level quarantine or lockdown and/or possibly, suspension of work or school."

Now is the time to be prepared. One must at least secure the doors because in days to come, the most important commodities would be bottles of water, toilet paper, sugar, alcohol, masks, etc. Our water supply system is so dirty we can't drink it.

received_801764763663644.jpeg
Next week. I need to acquire license for military grade armors and weaponry. I don't even own a gun! Many of you own shotguns. The battle has begin. We don't have the discipline of a Wuhan style calm lockdown, but more of aggressive type due to our $7 a day income for millions (imagine Syrian uprising).

Our comforting thoughts is that whatever happens. Humanity will not perish. I heard Antartica is still uncontaminated by it. And it is a big place and perhaps a safe place to survive the contagion. (I just acquire the movie Contagion and will watch it today).
 
  • #629
Editors, USA TODAY

Published 4:22 a.m. ET March 7, 2020 | Updated 6:57 a.m. ET March 7, 2020

Coronavirus outbreak: Concerns mount after positive tests on cruise ship


The Princess Cruises' Grand Princess cruise ship off the coast of California will dock this weekend in a "non-commercial port" to combat the spread of coronavirus, according to Vice President Mike Pence. Speaking at the White House Friday evening, Pence said 21 people aboard the ship tested positive for the virus. In a video obtained by USA TODAY, the Grand Princess captain can be heard saying the people infected on board "will continue to stay quarantined in their staterooms," until they can be transferred to hospitals onshore. As it stands, the U.S. has confirmed 310 cases of COVID-19 while at least 14 people in the U.S. and more than 3,400 people globally have died from the virus. Indiana, Kentucky, Minnesota, Nebraska, South Carolina, Oklahoma and Hawaii reported their first cases of the Coronavirus Friday, bring the total number of states with cases to 27.

https://www.app.com/story/news/2020...rnational-womens-day-harry-meghan/4965270002/

I think Port Chicago - Marine Ocean Terminal might be where the "Princess Cruises' Grand Princess cruise ship off the coast of California." My husband and I take trips there with our dog Gracie but recently they have closed that area.
 
  • #630
anorlunda said:
In the store today, I saw that rubbing alcohol was sold out, but there was plenty of hydrogen peroxide. I see that peroxide is listed as an antibacterial sanitize. Can we use peroxide to sanitize hands exposed to a virus?

Probably yes, at high enough concentration and if you leave it on long enough.
https://www.journalofhospitalinfection.com/article/S0195-6701(20)30046-3/pdf

However, washing with soap and water is simple and effective. Just make sure you lather and scrub well for at least 20 seconds before washing the soap off with water. The virus has a lipid envelope which is disrupted by soapy solution after several minutes (1000x reduction), although not quite as good as 70% alcohol which is more effective after 30 seconds (10000x reduction). One usually does not wash one's hands for minutes, but combined with the mechanical removal of dirt, handwashing is excellent.
https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/41/7/e67/310340

I recommend getting your personal moisturizer, since frequent hand-washing leads to dry and cracked skin.
https://academic.oup.com/occmed/article/68/5/340/4993549
http://www3.ohsonline.com/Articles/...-from-Occupational-Skin-Disorders.aspx?Page=3

Of course, wash the moisturizer bottle first (in case the bottle is dirty), then wash your hands, then apply the moisturizer.
 
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  • #631
Trump wants to keep passengers on Grand Princess - the same action that made the disease spread so widely on the cruise ship in Japan.
anorlunda said:
We value freedom. Sometimes to our own detriment. Some Americans look upon Europeans as too willing to conform (to say it in a non-inflammatory way.)
The freedom to stay at home when sick without missing salary or risking the job, the freedom to take vacations, the freedom to go to a restaurant without worrying about the cook infecting the guests, the freedom to go to a doctor when sick without having to worry about ruining medical bills...

vs. the freedom to infect others because you have to come to work when sick, and (and that's the one Americans like to highlight over and over) the freedom of employers to screw their employees in every way they can imagine.

You think Europeans don't value freedom? I know what I consider more free here.
 
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  • #632
mfb said:
Trump wants to keep passengers on Grand Princess - the same action that made the disease spread so widely on the cruise ship in Japan.

I wonder whether they can arrange clean areas, and protection for crew and quarantine officers so that infection doesn't spread on the ship. Is it intrinsically hard to have effective infection control on a cruise ship, or was it just that the Japanese authorities were careless in handling the Diamond Princess? I could guess the latter played a large role, given that they let some passengers off the ship without testing.
 
  • #633
mfb said:
Trump wants to keep passengers on Grand Princess - the same action that made the disease spread so widely on the cruise ship in Japan.

The freedom to stay at home when sick without missing salary or risking the job, the freedom to take vacations, the freedom to go to a restaurant without worrying about the cook infecting the guests, the freedom to go to a doctor when sick without having to worry about ruining medical bills...

vs. the freedom to infect others because you have to come to work when sick, and (and that's the one Americans like to highlight over and over) the freedom of employers to screw their employees in every way they can imagine.

You think Europeans don't value freedom? I know what I consider more free here.
This is just so insulting, dismissive, simplistic and not reflective of what the concept of "freedom" has historically meant, much less addressing the actual issue at hand. If tanks get rolled down the street to prevent people from leaving their homes, it could still be considered "freedom from disease" by such an argument. Specific to the example you gave, the "freedom" of one person to stay home and not work and still get paid means someone else has to work and is forced to pay that person to stay home.

Freedom - historically and in the US - has quite simply meant individual responsibility, accountability and choices(vs government mandates). That's it - it is no more complicated than that. Government mandated paid sick leave is not "freedom", it is government-forced support instead of personal responsibility/choices. That's not a value judgment - that doesn't mean it is right or wrong, it just is what it is, by the historical definition.

The functional problem with your critique is that I rather suspect neither the US or European countries have dealt with, in modern times, an issue like Coronavirus. While it sounds good to say paid sick time is mandatory ("right" or not), such programs cost money, and don't address the production problem that they cause. Yea, congratulations, your power grid is very reliable. Do you really think that will still be true when everyone who works in electricity production is at home because of government-forced home-quarantine? And how will companies survive when forced to pay everyone to be home sick simultaneously for the next 3 months? In China, they just shut off the power plants and close the factories; no big deal.

There is a name for the concept that China lacks that enables it to shut down the country to stop a virus epidemic, and that concept is "freedom". Similarly, it is likely that European countries will be able to enact more stringent practices than the US to stem the outbreak. No, not as severe as China, but more stringent than the US nonetheless. That's a reality that needs to be discussed dispassionately, not argued due to triggered emotion over the word.

Trying to twist the definition of "freedom" due to its aesthetics is popular these days, but it is unhelpful toward having discussions where people understand each other and more importantly in dealing with real-life problems -- and this one is pretty real.

Look: it is factually true that by typical measures of the concept, Americans value freedom more than virtually every other country's citizens in the world. That's something that will need to be dealt with when trying to stop the Coronavirus. But rather than finger-waggling about it, let's talk about what sensible policies should be enacted. Please.
 
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  • #634
mfb said:
Trump wants to keep passengers on Grand Princess - the same action that made the disease spread so widely on the cruise ship in Japan.
I agree this is the wrong call. The better call would be to offload the passengers to a secure location where they can be quarantined separately for the necessary 2 weeks. Those from the Diamond Princess have already done that (though after a long quarantine on the ship).
 
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  • #635
For News Of Our Disembarkation’

March 7, 2020 at 6:24 pm
SAN FRANCISCO (CBS SF) — While more than 2,000 passengers remained in limbo about when they will arrive at a U.S. port, the coronavirus-stricken Grand Princess rendezvoused with a supply ship Saturday evening off the San Francisco coastline.

According to a shipping tracker, the Miss Tammy out of San Francisco arrived at the Grand Princess around 5:30 p.m. just south of the Farallons. A Coast Cutter was not far from the ship.

Michelle Heckert, who is stranded on the ship with her grandparents, took to social media to update what was happening.

“Captain just announced that we are still waiting for news of our disembarkation, but we are moving closer to shore to receive additional supplies,” she tweeted. “For those without a balcony, they are trying to circulate more fresh air into the ship.”

Earlier in the day, a 70-year-old woman with a non-COVID-19 medical emergency was transported by Coast Guard cutter from the Grand Princess to the Bay Area for hospitalization.

The Coast Guard was notified by the ship’s captain that the woman needed treatment and the Centers for Disease Control recommended she be moved, the Coast Guard said.

[ . . . ]

In the wake of the death and Coronavirus cases, Gov. Gavin Newsom banned the ship from making port in San Francisco or anywhere in California until anyone with flu-like symptoms aboard was tested for the illness.

On Thursday, a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention doctor and four medical staffers from the California Air National Guard were airlifted to the ship along with testing kits. They took samples from 46 passengers and crew members. Those samples were then airlifted to a California state lab in Richmond for testing.

Vice President Mike Pence announced on Friday that 19 crew members and two passengers of the 46 samples taken had tested positive for the coronavirus.

“We have developed plan which will be implemented this weekend to bring ship into a noncommercial port all passengers and crew will be tested for the coronavirus,” Pence said. “Those that need to be quarantined, will be quarantined. Those that require additional medical attention will receive it.”

“Let me assure the American public, as we did so with those returning from China and those returning from the other cruise ship (Diamond Princess in Japan), we are taking all measures necessary to see to the health of Americans and those involved in Grand Princess and, just as importantly, to protect the health of the American public and prevent the spread of the disease thru communities in this country.”

Mary Ellen Carroll, the San Francisco Director of the Department of Emergency Management, at a Thursday morning news conference, said there were several factors that needed to be considered for determining where the ship will dock.

“Many of those people (who had fallen in during the 15-day cruise) have recovered and are no longer showing flu-like symptoms,” she said. “Once we have results from the (coronavirus) tests, the CDC and the state will determine the most appropriate location for the ship to berth. That location needs to provide for the safety of the surrounding community as well as the passengers.”

“The CDC and the state are considering a number of locations including San Francisco,” she added.

https://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2...ger-san-francisco-health-stranded-passengers/
 
  • #636
russ_watters said:
And how will companies survive when forced to pay everyone to be home sick simultaneously for the next 3 months?
This is a serious problem, potentially needing its own thread. Schools are already closing in my area due to local incidences of the virus, and I've seen at least one college do the same. It is conceivable that in the next few weeks a substantial number of schools, colleges and business with large public gatherings (restaurants, sports arenas, etc.) may close, for several months. I don't want to continue the previous post's complaint, but regardless of federally required employee benefits, there are a lot of businesses that simply could not survive a few weeks much less months of inactivity. A company can't pay its government-required employee benefits if it goes out of business. The potential economic impact is considerable.
 
  • #637
russ_watters said:
I rather suspect neither the US or European countries have dealt with, in modern times, an issue like Coronavirus.

I think this is a bit extreme. In the US, the numbers of identified cases and deaths from Coronavirus are roughly 1/1000 of the corresponding numbers for this winter's flu season. So a reasonable perspective on Coronavirus in the US is not "a huge new issue that we haven't dealt with before", but "a small additional blip in the flu season that we deal with every year". I suspect numbers for other developed countries are similar.
 
  • #638
russ_watters said:
It is conceivable that in the next few weeks a substantial number of schools, colleges and business with large public gatherings (restaurants, sports arenas, etc.) may close, for several months.

Do you really expect it to be months? Businesses don't close for months every winter because of the flu season. I am hopeful that people will start to put Coronavirus into perspective and start dealing with it as basically part of the flu season instead of being some separate thing.
 
  • #639
PeterDonis said:
Do you really expect it to be months? Businesses don't close for months every winter because of the flu season. I am hopeful that people will start to put Coronavirus into perspective and start dealing with it as basically part of the flu season instead of being some separate thing.

It has to be treated far more seriously than seasonal flu, and yet it does not mean having to close businesses for months.
 
  • #640
russ_watters said:
This is a serious problem, potentially needing its own thread. Schools are already closing in my area due to local incidences of the virus, and I've seen at least one college do the same. It is conceivable that in the next few weeks a substantial number of schools, colleges and business with large public gatherings (restaurants, sports arenas, etc.) may close, for several months. I don't want to continue the previous post's complaint, but regardless of federally required employee benefits, there are a lot of businesses that simply could not survive a few weeks much less months of inactivity. A company can't pay its government-required employee benefits if it goes out of business. The potential economic impact is considerable.

Each region must decide what the reasonable measures are. But it should not be seen as stop the virus or stop normal life - the point is to stop the virus as much as we can so that normal life can go on as much as possible.

As I said, each region will decide for itself what the reasonable measures are. However, it does not necessarily include closing schools for long periods of time. In Singapore, where the virus is taken extremely seriously, all schools have continued, but with precautions such as monitoring the health of students daily so that sick students are sent to the doctor, and with attendance taken so that contacts can be put on a leave of absence or quarantine if student or teacher does get the coronavirus. So far, we have had at least one teacher and one student get the virus. As I understand from news reports, the schools with the confirmed Coronavirus cases as a whole have closed perhaps for one or two days to clean the facilities, but then resumed after that, with probably (not sure exactly) close contacts (classmates) put on leave of absence or e-learning from home as a precautionary measure. In the case of the teacher, the case happened long enough ago that it seems likely that no other students or teachers in the school got the virus, at least in part because the teacher took medical leave immediately upon onset of flu-like symptoms. Activities like school camps in all schools have been cancelled.

Businesses in Singapore are also taking a big hit (talking to wait staff at my favourite restaurants, it seems business is down by 50%, and I'm pretty sure lots are worried for their jobs), but the government is putting in place some things like tax rebates etc. https://www.channelnewsasia.com/new...e-timely-relief-businesses-more-help-12447786
 
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  • #641
In Austin Texas, there were two big events coming up SXSW and Explore UT. The mayor issued a local disaster proclamation and both events have been canceled. SXSW is a really big event with music acts coming from all over the world to play here. A lot of money will be lost because of this cancellation.

Explore UT is a more regional event with schools sending busloads of kids to the UT Austin campus for an open house event where students showcase what they've doing in order to inspire middle school kids to consider college.

As far as I know, there have been no COVID-19 cases in Austin. There are several cases announced in Houston with some hospital employees who came in contact with the patients self-quarantined. Houston is two hours east of Austin.

I expect more cities across Texas and the US will do the same.

https://abc13.com/5993682/
 
  • #642
What's the consensus here about the expiration of 70% alcohol?

I plan to buy a box of it or more. But if the lockdown didn't occur and I didn't get to use it. There is an expiration date of around 2022.

What really happens when alcohol expired. I googled it but there seems to be no definite answer, so what is your experience on it? Does the concentration change or there is a chemical reaction? Like Wine?

By the way. What countries also use the following alert levels? Sub-level 2 means there is community transmission. I wonder if there is a Level 1 too.

code red.jpg
 
  • #643
PeterDonis said:
So a reasonable perspective on Coronavirus in the US is not "a huge new issue that we haven't dealt with before", but "a small additional blip in the flu season that we deal with every year".
Only if we manage to stop its spread somewhat soon. If we say "it's just a small additional blib" and do nothing then it might grow to be worse than the seasonal flu. It's still growing rapidly even with all the things we do. The US has 340 confirmed cases, and probably several hundred unconfirmed ones. If the cases double every 4 days (toy example but not too far away from the spread in China) and this keeps going we are looking at ~10 million cases end of April with ~100,000 deaths even if the healthcare system can keep up with a million people needing a hospital.

South Korea still seems to be on a good track. They test much more than others (maybe apart from China), so they can react much faster. That makes the situation look worse initially but ultimately it is the much better option.

@russ: As I said, different interpretations of what freedom means and what is more important. I know what I consider more important.
russ_watters said:
Do you really think that will still be true when everyone who works in electricity production is at home because of government-forced home-quarantine? And how will companies survive when forced to pay everyone to be home sick simultaneously for the next 3 months?
Not everyone will get sick, not all who do will get sick at the same time, people won't be sick for 3 months, and the plans always come with some contingency exactly because some people get sick.
In Germany, for smaller companies the health insurance pays 80% of the salary during paid sick leave (+- many special cases for ... reasons). All these dramatic problems are actually non-issues, or issues that have been solved long ago.

A shortage of customers is a serious issue for affected sectors, I agree.
 
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  • #644
mfb said:
the same action that made the disease spread so widely on the cruise ship in Japan.

It's cray. They should all be removed, quarantined and tested. So the US will need to pay the bill. This is a pandemic - wake up. It's like here in Aus - the government promised a surplus so what does the media howl on about - is the surplus in jeopardy. Who cares - you do what is necessary in emergencies. Time enough after to look at issues like that and figure out the best way forward.

Regarding contractors and sick leave (ie they do not get any - in fact some get docked extra if they do not turn up) it has been an issue that needs fixing for quite a while here in Aus. There are a number of ways of fixing it, I will leave which one up to the politicians, but right now the government should pass laws forcing the sick to stay at home and compensate them for financial loss because of it.

This is no time to penny pinch.

Thanks
Bill
 
Last edited:
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  • #645
mfb said:
If the cases double every 4 days

I don't think they will keep rising at that rate. I expect the rate of new cases to taper off more quickly in the US and other developed countries than it did in China.
 
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  • #646
atyy said:
It has to be treated far more seriously than seasonal flu, and yet it does not mean having to close businesses for months.

The reason is obvious - we have a vaccine for the flu - but at this point not for coronovirus. Whatever needs to be done should be done. If businesses need to close - so be it - but IMHO that will be an unlikely last resort - still if required it is not something we should shy away from. The government can compensate them if necessary. Regarding the flu I am of the belief everyone should be vaccinated, especially now because anyone that gets the flu will put unneeded strain on the medical system. If not done voluntarily the government may have to take action - but again hopefully not. I will be the first in line once the flu vaccine is available at my local clinic (end March here in Aus) - in fact my doctors have more or less 'ordered' I must get the flu vaccine every year because of underlying autoimmune conditions.

Thanks
Bill
 
  • #647
PeterDonis said:
I don't think they will keep rising at that rate. I expect the rate of new cases to taper off more quickly in the US and other developed countries than it did in China.

That I agree with - people are only talking worst case scenarios when discussing business, school and university closures, forcing people not to go to work etc when sick. But if necessary we can't shy away from it.

Thanks
Bill
 
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  • #648
WHO Director-General's opening remarks at the media briefing on COVID-19 - 5 March 2020
5 March 2020
Good afternoon, and thank you once again for joining us in person and online.
Today I want to start by saying thank you to all our colleagues in the media. As providers of information, you play a vital role in the response to COVID-19.
The fight against rumours and misinformation is a vital part of the battle against this virus. We rely on you to make sure people have accurate information about the threat they face, and how to protect themselves and others.
Now to the numbers.
There is now a total of 95,265 reported cases of COVID-19 globally, and 3281 deaths.
In the past 24 hours, China reported 143 cases. Most cases continue to be reported from Hubei province, and 8 provinces have not reported any cases in the last 14 days.
Outside China, 2055 cases were reported in 33 countries. Around 80% of those cases continue to come from just three countries.
We see encouraging signs from the Republic of Korea. The number of newly-reported cases appears to be declining, and the cases that are being reported are being identified primarily from known clusters.
Although a few countries are reporting large numbers of cases, 115 countries have not reported any cases.
21 countries have reported only one case.
And 5 countries that had reported cases have not reported new cases in the past 14 days.
The experience of these countries and of China continues to demonstrate that this is not a one-way street.
This epidemic can be pushed back, but only with a collective, coordinated and comprehensive approach that engages the entire machinery of government.
We are calling on every country to act with speed, scale and clear-minded determination.
Although we continue to see the majority of cases in a handful of countries, we are deeply concerned about the increasing number of countries reporting cases, especially those with weaker health systems.
However, this epidemic is a threat for every country, rich and poor. As we have said before, even high-income countries should expect surprises. The solution is aggressive preparedness.
We’re concerned that some countries have either not taken this seriously enough, or have decided there’s nothing they can do.
We are concerned that in some countries the level of political commitment and the actions that demonstrate that commitment do not match the level of the threat we all face.
This is not a drill.
This is not the time to give up.
This is not a time for excuses.
This is a time for pulling out all the stops.
Countries have been planning for scenarios like this for decades. Now is the time to act on those plans.
These are plans that start with leadership from the top, coordinating every part of government, not just the health ministry – security, diplomacy, finance, commerce, transport, trade, information and more – the whole government should be involved.
Activate your emergency plans through that whole-government approach.
Educate your public, so that people know what the symptoms are and know how to protect themselves and others.
Increase your testing capacity.
Get your hospitals ready.
Ensure essential supplies are available.
Train your health workers to identify cases, provide careful and compassionate treatment, and protect themselves from infection.
If countries act aggressively to find, isolate and treat cases, and to trace every contact, they can change the trajectory of this epidemic.
If we take the approach that there’s nothing we can do, that will quickly become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
It’s in our hands.
WHO has published step-by-step guidelines for countries to develop their national action plans according to eight key areas, which are supported by detailed technical guidance.
We call on all countries to accelerate those plans, and we stand ready to work with them to do that.
More funding is being made available to support countries that need it, and that have plans in place.
As you know, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund have both made funds available to stabilize health systems and mitigate the economic consequences of the epidemic, with a special focus on enabling access to critical supplies and equipment.
I had also a very fruitful discussion with the President of the African Development Bank.
This is funding that is available now to countries who need it, in line with WHO’s Strategic Preparedness and Response Plan.
These funds are essential for supporting the response now, but also for long-term preparedness.
Although COVID-19 presents an acute threat now, it is absolutely essential that countries do not lose this opportunity to strengthen their preparedness systems.
We know people are afraid, and that’s normal and appropriate.
That fear can be managed and moderated with accurate information. Today WHO has launched a new social media campaign called Be Ready for COVID-19, which urges people to be safe, smart and informed.
If you feel overwhelmed by fear, reach out to those around you. Find out what your community’s emergency response plans are, how you fit in and how you can help.
There’s still a lot we don’t know, but every day we’re learning more, and we’re working around the clock to fill in the gaps in our knowledge.
Ultimately, how deadly this virus will be depends not only on the virus itself, but on how we respond to it.
This is a serious disease. It is not deadly to most people, but it can kill.
We’re all responsible for reducing our own risk of infection, and if we’re infected, for reducing our risk of infecting others.
There’s something all of us can do to protect vulnerable people in our communities.
That’s why we keep talking about solidarity.
This is not just a threat for individual people, or individual countries.
We’re all in this together, and we can only save lives together.
I thank you.
https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/det...the-media-briefing-on-covid-19---5-march-2020
 
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  • #649
PeterDonis said:
I don't think they will keep rising at that rate. I expect the rate of new cases to taper off more quickly in the US and other developed countries than it did in China.
What would cause a change? In China it was extreme quarantine measures. I don't expect any democracy to do this, or to do this too late. In South Korea it is the ability to find most infected people quickly via mass testing. The US isn't doing that so far, and it only gets harder with more cases. It's still a viable approach but it needs a change in the way this outbreak is handled in the US. The rising temperatures might limit the spread, ultimately. Who knows.
 
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  • #650
chirhone said:
I plan to buy a box of it or more. But if the lockdown didn't occur and I didn't get to use it. There is an expiration date of around 2022.

70% alcohol by itself does not go bad. So if it is in a bottle, and the bottle has been capped, it should be fine.

However, my experience with individually-wrapped alcohol swabs is that they do dry out after many years (not sure why, it does seem like the wrapping is intact) - this will be obvious - the swab is dry, not wet.
 

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