COVID COVID-19 Coronavirus Containment Efforts

[Mary Conrads Sanburn]

Coronavirus Live Updates

LATEST NEWS AND 1 HR AGO

FDA Approves First Rapid COVID-19 Test

by VANESSA ROMO

The Food and Drug Administration has approved the first rapid point-of-care COVID-19 test, that can deliver results in less than an hour.

Cepheid, a Silicon Valley diagnostics company, made the announcement on Saturday, saying it has received emergency authorization from the government to use the test.

While the agency has approved about a dozen other COVID-19 tests in response to the public health emergency caused by the Coronavirus pandemic, this is the first one that can be used at the point of care.

Cepheid said the test kits will be available by the end of the month.

[. . .]

2 HRS AGO

Inspired By Italy, Dallas Residents Sing Together From Their Apartment Windows

by LYNSEY JEFFERY

In these uncertain times, we all need somebody to lean on.

Or so felt the residents of South Side on Lamar, an apartment building in Dallas, Texas, where a group of residents stuck their heads out of windows in a chorus of quarantined voices.

Building resident and soulful tenor Danzel Barber led an apartment quarantine singalong to the popular Bill Withers song "Lean on Me."

Little by little, other residents began to join Barber in his refrain, some adding harmonies, some just peering out their windows or filming on phones. Others came in a bit off-beat or off-key — the perils of cross-apartment singing.

North Texas member station KERA reported the story, and longtime contributor Mark Birnbaum, who lives in the building, caught the singalong on camera.

[ . . .]

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates#id819603870

 

[Klystron]

I fell behind following the latest updates due to minor surgery Friday. Today my Canadian friends and neighbors wintering here in the desert received immediate evacuation orders. Two couples I know are flying back to Canada tonight with just hours notice. A loss to our community IMO.

The surgery center practiced social distancing by directing patients and drivers to wait in their vehicles. Patients were provided hand sanitizer but not masks. Medical staff wore masks, gowns and surgical gloves. Admin clerks wore optional light masks and latex gloves. Patient post-op escorts changed gloves and booties after each trip.

Most patients willingly complied with distancing but at least one woman my age repeatedly berated the clerks for being asked to wait in her car; a new luxury Mercedes that I noticed as it occupied two parking places.

If PF allows a poetic analogy, a common cold compares to influenza as a face slap is to being chain-whipped and stomped by irate bikers. I get the recommended flu vaccine each year as a precaution. Stay safe.

 

[atyy]

Earlier in this thread @Ygggdrasil posted links to articles by (1) Tomas Pueyo and by (2) Neil Ferguson and colleagues. I'm linking those articles here, along with (3) a new article by Pueyo which includes commentary on Ferguson's article, and (4) a Twitter thread by Trevor Bedford which also comments on Ferguson's article. The important points added by the third and fourth articles are that draconian measures resembling those taken in Wuhan may not be needed for more than a few months, as the example of South Korea shows.

Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now
Politicians, Community Leaders and Business Leaders: What Should You Do and When?
Tomas Pueyo, 10 March 2020

Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand
Neil Ferguson and colleagues on behalf of Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team , 16 March 2020

Coronavirus: The Hammer and the Dance
What the Next 18 Months Can Look Like, if Leaders Buy Us Time
Tomas Pueyo, 20 March 2020

Comments on 16 March paper by Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team
Trevor Bedford, 19 March 2020

 

[Roberto Teso]

I would like to share with you all an ingenious work that has been developed here in Italy, an emergency mask for hospital respirators made in very ingenious way, you can find all the instructions (italian and english) here:

EASY COVID 19

I hope as soon as possible to find a similar method to produce masks such as FFP2 and FFP3.

Stay united, even if at a safe distance, and take care of yourself and your loved ones.

 

[DennisN]

As some of you may be aware of, the death toll in Italy¹ is now greater than in China, and further efforts are now being considered in Italy:

Italy Coronavirus deaths jump by almost 800, government shuts most workplaces (Reuters, March 21, 2020)

ROME (Reuters) - Italy recorded a jump in deaths from Coronavirus of almost 800 on Saturday, taking the toll in the world’s hardest-hit country to almost 5,000.

In its latest desperate effort to halt the epidemic Rome ordered that all businesses must close until April 3, with the exception of those essential to maintaining the country’s supply chain.

“It is the most difficult crisis in our post-war period,” Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte said in a video posted on Facebook, adding “only production activities deemed vital for national production will be allowed”.

Conte did not specify which factories and businesses will be considered crucial to keep the country going. The government is expected to publish an emergency decree on Sunday to make the new crackdown immediately effective.

Here in Sweden it has been announced² that our prime minister will do a special address to the public this evening. This is very unusual and very rarely happens in Sweden.

Sources:
1. Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE)
2. Löfven håller tal till nationen i kväll (SVD, Swedish only)

 

[jack action]

Here's what the former chief medical officer of Ontario (Canada) had to say about the containment effort, today:

https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/1714367043854

The actual interview was longer and, at one point, he went back on these mathematical models that present catastrophic scenarios.

His point - which is also mine - is that these are very weak as they are basically modelling things with a lot of unknowns, which makes these models very unreliable. He was stating that he thoughts the modelers don't put enough emphasizes on that fact.

Scientifically illiterate politicians and news people really like those type of crude scientific observations that have a shock value. Personally, I'm more worried about what people will think later on science based on these type of crude observations that can misrepresent reality, and will extend that opinion to well-established science based on well defined facts. The difference between the two might be difficult to distinguish for the untrained eye.

 

[bhobba]

NYC and LA will no longer test for possible cases but only use tests for determining the appropriate course of treatment of symptomatic persons. This is due to lack of PPE and tests. According to CNN. Is this a good strategy?

IMHO - no. I certainly can understand things like that without enough tests, but surely the answer is this is only an interim measure and we will as a priority do everything possible to get more tests. If it overwhelms the medical system do what some other places are doing - isolating those infected in hotels etc that are now vacant because of lockdowns.

Thanks
Bill

 

[bhobba]

Latest news - PM has announced Australia is close to lockdown - not quite there yet but every commentator says it soon will be - likely in the next week.

Here in Queensland its basically levelled off - over the last few days between 35-40 cases daily, but the two main states NSW and Victoria, are advancing exponentially.

Thanks
Bill

 

[anorlunda]

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-03-20/coronavirus-county-doctors-containment-testing

The [Los Angeles County Department of Public Health] “is shifting from a strategy of case containment to slowing disease transmission and averting excess morbidity and mortality,” according to the letter. Doctors should test symptomatic patients only when “a diagnostic result will change clinical management or inform public health response.”

The guidance sets in writing what has been a reality all along. The shortage of tests nationwide has meant that many patients suspected of having COVID-19 have not had the diagnosis confirmed by a laboratory.

In addition to the lack of tests, public health agencies across the country lack the staff to trace the source of new cases, drastically reducing the chances of isolating people who have been exposed and thereby containing the outbreak.

 

[peanut]

French Parliament voted last night to give Govt powers to declare State of Health/Sanitary Emergency: the text of the law will allow the Govt to adopt the necessary measures "to limit the freedom to come and go, the freedom to do as one pleases and the freedom to assemble but for the sole purpose of putting a stop to the health catastrophe..."

The text of the proposed law will have to go to the Senate. A lively debate between members of the National Assembly and the Senate is expected. Mr Schellenberger of the Liberal Party is expecting a lively debate between members of the National Assembly and the Senate and expects both Chambers to come to a compromise because he says, "such law will give the Government collossal power."

https://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/c...5Pc30RiXZ5mr5AUdqqDtppaL3FV5O1TYW4yTgnwqGzcAs

 

[phinds]

Sounds like the French are taking Patrick Henry literally, but out of context.

 

[Keith_McClary]

This is your chance to save the world by sitting on your butt watching TV. Don't screw it up.

 

[peanut]

Sounds like the French are taking Patrick Henry literally, but out of context.

If French authorities abuse the provisions in the law, there will be hell to pay.

Edit: The US DoJ is asking for something more RADICAL.

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment...s-205444026.html?soc_src=social-sh&soc_trk=fb

 

[PeroK]

As some of you may be aware of, the death toll in Italy¹ is now greater than in China, and further efforts are now being considered in Italy:

Italy Coronavirus deaths jump by almost 800, government shuts most workplaces (Reuters, March 21, 2020)

The Italian death rate seems very high. Much higher than predicted for the virus and much higher than other countries. Is there any information on why this is?

 

[phinds]

The Italian death rate seems very high. Much higher than predicted for the virus and much higher than other countries. Is there any information on why this is?

One thing is that Italy has the highest percent of elderly in Europe according to news reports

 

[PeroK]

One thing is that Italy has the highest percent of elderly in Europe according to news reports

It can't be fundamentally different from the other major European countries.

 

[phinds]

It can't be fundamentally different from the other major European countries.

You're probably right but here's one news article about it:
https://www.wired.com/story/why-the-coronavirus-hit-italy-so-hard/

 

[gleem]

Italy/ Germany have the second largest elderly population in the world second to Japan. But Japan is doing well with the virus. Also, Italian culture depends on a lot of contact between the young and the old. The EU has the largest regional aging population in the world.

 

[gmax137]

... twerp ...

Thanks -- I haven't heard that word in a long time!

 

[Vanadium 50]

One thing is that Italy has the highest percent of elderly in Europe according to news reports

Tied with Finland at 36.6. (This is the elderly dependency ratio, defined as N(65+)/N(15-64) ) Japan is a clear outlier at 48.0.

It can't be fundamentally different from the other major European countries.

Europe ranges from 36.6 to 20.5 (Luxembourg). Luxembourg is not an outlier - Cyprus is 20.9, Ireland is 22.6, Montenegro is 23.8.

 

[gleem]

The US just became number one in the world for daily increases in new cases, over 11,000 today doubling up on Italy"s 5500. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Should overtake China and Italy in total cases by Friday.

 

[gleem]

3M says that they have upped production of N95 masks to 1.1 billion/year double its previous rate. There are 4 million nurses and physicians and maybe another 2.5 million other health care workers with patient contact in this country. At the current rate, the masks should be hitting the streets at 3.0 million per day. So why the shortage if they have been producing them at 1.5 million per day previously?

As far as price gouging is concerned most hospitals buy from high profile distributors whose pricing practices are easily monitored. So why aren't states enforcing unfair/deceptive trade practice laws?

Edit: I made a mistake by a factor of 10 in production . Has been corrected. Still with judicious use BS allocation, there should not be a shortage for hospitals or healthcare workers

 

[Ygggdrasil]

The Italian death rate seems very high. Much higher than predicted for the virus and much higher than other countries. Is there any information on why this is?

A few reasons why the observed case fatality rate my be high:
1) Population demographics (as others have noted)
2) (Also as noted previously) Behavioral differences (e.g. greater intergenetational mingling which leads to more infection of elderly, prevalence of smoking which exacerbates the condition, etc.)
3) Lack of testing (case fatality rate is deaths/infected cases; if testing is not identifying mild cases, then the denominator of the rate calculation is wrong and the cfr will appear to be too high).
4) Lesser healthcare resources (Italy has many 2x fewer hospital beds per capita than Germany, see graph posted here, which means much less capacity to treat severe cases).
5) Related to above, an overwhelmed health care system (so many severe cases that would be treatable in a normal setting are leading to death because of shortages of key equipment like ventilators).

 

[Klystron]

3M says that they have upped production of N95 masks to 1.1 billion/year double its previous rate. There are 4 million nurses and physicians and maybe another 2.5 million other health care workers with patient contact in this country. At the current rate, the masks should be hitting the streets at 30 million per day. So why the shortage if they have been producing them at 15 million per day previously?

As far as price gouging is concerned most hospitals buy from high profile distributors whose pricing practices are easily monitored. So why aren't states enforcing unfair/deceptive trade practice laws?

No information on price gouging but 3M N95 face masks are very popular in my area among a variety of professionals and hobbyists. Local hardware stores sell (or sold?) contractor boxes of 20 respirators* at a discount. My current box of 20 has part number 8200HB1. A different part number packages 4 masks in 5 or 25 bundles intended for professional painters, shop workers, construction, cooks and cleaners to carry throughout the work day to change masks as they become clogged with dust and perspiration.

I always keep a box handy for dusty cleanup chores, fine art painting preparation, smoking/BBQ and other tasks that involve dust particles. I did not know medical professionals used N95 masks until this recent crisis, assuming they used surgical respirators and softer (cloth ?) masks.

So, consider adding the number of cleaners and other workers to your count along with the many professions that use similar masks and that the paper masks require frequent replacement.

*(3M labels them as respirators.)

 

[DennisN]

Here in Sweden it has been announced that our prime minister will do a special address to the public this evening. This is very unusual and very rarely happens in Sweden.

The address of the prime minister was about the crisis in general, he talked about our shared resposibilities and that we will have to be prepared for that the difficult time will last for a while. There was no announcement of any new policies regarding the virus situation, but he said that new policies may come, and may come quickly.

 

[bhobba]

Maybe Australia can shed some light on this. The deputy chief medical officer has just given his opinion, and because of his position (the deputy gave the briefing because the chief was in conference with the PM) likely Australia's official position. It was testing. We have one of the highest testing and tracing rates in the world. We have now reached over 1000 but only 7 have died ie a death rate of a bit under .7%. In China, outside Hubei province, it was also low because they were prepared - I seem to recall it was about .4%. My suspicion is its preparedness and testing. BTW the reason it's not a complete lockdown yet in Aus is going to school is now optional - the schools will remain open. The reason is it is estimated 1/3 of health workers will be taken out of action if they are shut. The consensus of commentators is they will eventually be shut and we will be in complete lockdown in about a week, and some other arrangements will be made for healthcare workers.

BTW regarding beaches, they closed access but people went over the barricades etc. The life savers tried to stop them, but were ignored. Police will be used in future, just like they were called in for panic buying. That is sad, very sad, and takes police away from other important duties.

BTW you can form your own opinion what caused those 2700 people to be allowed to leave a ship after the law was passed to not even allow ships to land:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ngers-disembarked-without-coronavirus-testing

Thanks
Bill

 

[Mary Conrads Sanburn]

29 min ago
More than 32,000 US Coronavirus cases and 400 deaths
From CNN's Jamiel Lynch

There are at least 32,149 cases of novel Coronavirus in the United States, according to CNN Health's tally of cases that are detected and tested through US public health systems.
At least 400 people have died. The total includes cases from all 50 states, the District of Columbia and other US territories, as well as all repatriated cases.
https://us.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-03-22-20/index.html

 

[wukunlin]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12318918

Over 102 cases in New Zealand now. Our public healthcare system does NOT have the capabilities to deal with an outbreak. This is really bad.

 

[Tom.G]

Here is a rather detailed article on how COVID-19 reaches and progresses thru the body. Rather graphic writing, if you are easily upset you have been warned.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03/the-story-of-a-coronavirus-infection.html

 

[bhobba]

Over 102 cases in New Zealand now. Our public healthcare system does NOT have the capabilities to deal with an outbreak. This is really bad.

And they laughed at the PM when she mostly locked down the country. Australia followed in a couple of days. It looks like you can't go too hard, too early with this thing.

Queensland has now closed its state borders, which of course is illegal (at least for Australian citizens), but nobody is complaining. The only trouble is the border runs through the Gold Coast - in fact right through the airport. Amazing. Interestingly I just had a 'discussion' with my sister who said it was at the Tweed river - I had to read her the article about it. Seriously its a big problem for those that live on one side of the border and have businesses or work on the other side.

Oh - Australia has now entered what NZ calls level 4 except for schools which needs special consideration to not impact needed health care workers. It is predicted by virtually all commentators to be at your level 4 some time this week

Thanks
Bill