Democracy Test
As 2005 began, President Bush set the spread of democracy as his primary goal. How did he do?
By Richard Wolffe and Holly Bailey
Newsweek
Updated: 4:25 p.m. ET Dec. 28, 2005
Dec. 28, 2005 - It only seems fair to judge someone’s year on their own terms. So in the holiday spirit, it’s worth looking back at President George W. Bush’s 2005 by using the standard he set for himself: the success of liberty.
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Set aside, for a moment, the question of civil liberties at home--even though the debate has barely begun into why the administration bypassed the courts to eavesdrop on U.S. citizens. Just how amazing was the year in terms of liberty around the world?
[EGYPT] One of the administration’s strongest claims to spreading freedom in 2005 was the elections in Egypt. Staging the first multicandidate elections for president, Egypt seemed to support Bush’s thesis that events in Iraq were pushing other countries in the region to edge toward a more democratic future. But Egypt’s severely limited elections (with a handful of approved and constrained opposition parties) failed to live up to the hype. Security forces allegedly fired live ammunition and rubber bullets at voters in recent parliamentary elections, and by year’s end the only half-serious challenger to President Hosni Mubarak was jailed on charges of fraud. Ayman Nour was sentenced to five years of hard labor just two days after Bush declared 2005 to be an amazing year for liberty.
[LEBANON] In the Palestinian territories, 2005 started out looking like a historic year for democracy. That was the result of Yasir Arafat’s death more than events in Iraq, but the year still began with an extraordinary sight: free presidential elections for the Palestinians. It ended in another extraordinary sight: electoral victories for a terrorist group. Hamas won a series of elections in major towns, mounting a serious challenge to Arafat’s ruling Fatah party ahead of parliamentary elections early next year. Hamas has widespread support for its educational and charitable activities. It also has some popular support for its murderous terrorist operations and its stated goal of destroying Israel. As such, Hamas poses one of the critical tests of Bush’s democracy thesis. Does democracy really help to fight terrorism?
[SAUDI ARABIA] Other countries in the region showed such a glacial movement toward democracy in 2005 that Bush’s timeline for freedom may need to extend another millennium. According to the independent group Freedom House, Saudi Arabia has slightly improved its civil-liberties status. Now it ranks marginally better than countries such as Syria, North Korea and Cuba. Its equals, in terms of political rights and civil liberties, are the dictatorships of Belarus and Zimbabwe.
[IRAQ] …The test now is for the Sunnis to accept the final results of those elections, which should be announced this week, as well as their status as a minority group after decades of power under Saddam’s regime. Several thousand Sunni protestors have taken to the streets in recent days to complain about alleged fraud by their Shiite and Kurdish rivals.
…But even if the Shiite majority includes minority Sunnis in government, the new Iraq will test Bush’s thesis in another vital way. The whole premise of the mission in Iraq--and the promotion of freedom--is that a democratic government will help America’s national security. As the president said in his recent TV address, he believes the Iraqi vote “means that America has an ally of growing strength in the fight against terror.”
That may be true when it comes to fighting the insurgents in Iraq. But it’s less clear where an Iraqi government, led by religious Shiite parties, will stand in the broader war on terror--especially when it comes to jihadi groups supported by its neighbor.