It's not enough to imagine that postulate II fails. You need to state how it fails. Possibilities: (a) We're talking about an alternate universe where the laws of physics are different, and therefore it can fail in ways that contradict past experiments in our universe. (b) Photons have nonvanishing mass. (c) Something else...?
An example of (a) is a universe in which Galilean relativity is valid. Such a universe is equivalent to taking the limit of special relativity when c\rightarrow\infty.
Passionflower said:
If, hypothetically, an experiment would prove that that postulate is wrong then obviously the whole theory collapses.
Not true. For example in case (b), nothing fundamental changes at all about relativity, but you just have to stop referring to c as the speed of light. For an example of an experiment setting an upper limit on the photon mass: R.S. Lakes, "Experimental limits on the photon mass and cosmic magnetic vector potential", Physical Review Letters , 1998, 80, 1826-1829,
http://silver.neep.wisc.edu/~lakes/mu.html
DrGreg said:
If we later discover that light doesn't travel at the invariant speed c (e.g. that it travels at 0.99999999999999c relative to its emitter), that wouldn't affect the theory.
Not quite. A fixed speed not equal to c is not compatible with SR. Massless particles have to travel at the invariant speed c. Massless particles don't have fixed speeds.
russ_watters said:
If it is wrong it is wrong...but it is not wrong...so where is this going?
There are ways for it to be wrong without contradicting previous experiments. A small but nonvanishing photon mass is one of them.
This is essentially a question about the axiomatic foundations of SR. To get more insight, it really helps to look at an alternative axiomatization. For derivations of the Lorentz transformation that don't take a constant c as a postulate, see Morin or Rindler.
Rindler, Essential Relativity: Special, General, and Cosmological, 1979, p. 51
Morin, Introduction to Classical Mechanics, Cambridge, 1st ed., 2008
By comparing the Rindler axiomatization with Einstein's 1905 axiomatization, we can see that there are only three ways for Einstein's postulate II to fail: (1) Rindler's postulates all hold, but Galilean relativity is valid. (2) Rindler's postulates fail, because spacetime lacks the symmetry properties that everyone expected. E.g., rotational or translational symmetry is violated. (3) Einstein's postulate II fails, but Rindler's postulates all hold. The way that this can happen is if light doesn't travel at c (which presumably means that photons have mass).
Case 1 is inconsistent with experiment, so we can rule it out.
Case 2 is possible, but experiment shows that if these symmetries are broken, they're broken extremely weakly, so SR is a fantastically good approximation in almost all situations.
Case 3 is possible, but the upper limit on the photon mass is incredibly small, so again SR is a fantastic approximation.