ET Lives in a Multi-Planet Solar System

AI Thread Summary
The discussion centers on a study suggesting that extraterrestrial life is likely to exist in solar systems with multiple planets, as these systems tend to have more circular orbits. Critics highlight a potential base rate fallacy in the interpretation of the data, arguing that the correlation between the number of planets and orbital eccentricity does not necessarily imply a higher probability of life in multi-planet systems. The original paper acknowledges that most known planets are in single-planet systems but claims statistical significance in their findings. The Scientific American article is noted for its attractive presentation of the data, which some believe could lead to misinterpretation. Ultimately, the study indicates that if low orbital eccentricities favor systems with many planets, then habitability may indeed be more common in such environments.
CygnusX-1
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by Ken Croswell

If ET exists, he probably lives in a solar system with many planets. That's the implication of a new study that finds that the more planets a solar system has, the more circular their orbits tend to be.

Link (including a color chart showing the correlation of orbital eccentricity with number of planets in a solar system): Scientific American.
 
Astronomy news on Phys.org
Typical base rate fallacy in the article. A system with multiple planets might have a larger probability to have small eccentricities (which is not surprising), but without the fraction of systems with n planets this does not tell anything about the probability that life would be in multi-planet systems.
Also, the diagram can be misleading: most planets are in the 1-planet category, so the dots would extend more towards larger eccentricities even without any correlation.

Original paper (without that error)
Figure 1 gives a better idea how large (or not large) the differences are.
 
The authors recognize that most of the planets are in the 1-planet category but go through statistical tests to show that their result is statistically significant.

The Scientific American diagram has exactly the same information as Figure 2 of the paper, except that it's presented in a more attractive manner.
 
CygnusX-1 said:
The authors recognize that most of the planets are in the 1-planet category but go through statistical tests to show that their result is statistically significant.
I didn't say anything against the publication, that looks good.
The Scientific American article uses it to draw a conclusion that the data does not allow.

CygnusX-1 said:
The Scientific American diagram has exactly the same information as Figure 2 of the paper, except that it's presented in a more attractive manner.
Unfortunately that is the easiest one to misinterpret.
 
The Scientific American story does not misrepresent the paper. The paper itself states, "If low eccentricities indeed favor high multiplicities, habitability may be more common in systems with a larger number of planets."
 

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