- #1
Ken G
Gold Member
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Imagine a million different names are in a hat, yours among them. Some number N of names will be drawn, decided by people that you know too little about to decide a meaningful expectation on N. The drawing is done in secret, and the newspaper reports one winner each day, in no particular order. On the first day, the newspaper reports that you are a winner! Does this give you reason to suspect that (1) N should have been fairly large, (2) you still don't know how large to expect N to be, but your expectation is larger than before you knew you won, or (3) you have no reason to update your expectation at all.