I Finding a Factor's Contribution to An Average of a Product

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The discussion revolves around determining the contribution of the A term in the average product X, defined as the ensemble average of random variables A, B, and C. Participants emphasize the importance of defining the variables and understanding their probability distributions, noting that independence among the variables is crucial. Monte Carlo simulations in Excel are suggested as a practical approach to visualize the data through histograms and statistical analysis. The conversation also touches on the significance of the scale of the variables and their moments, questioning whether they are positive, bounded, or have other characteristics. Overall, the challenge lies in quantifying the specific impact of the A values on the final average X.
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Say that there is an object

X = <ABC> = (A_1B_1C_1+A_2B_2C_2+...+A_NB_NC_N)/N

Is there any way to say what X_A is? Or what exactly the A term in all of these terms contributed to X? Or is that info pretty much washed out in this type of ensemble average?

Oh, and A, B and C are random values. I will say, in my problem they do differ by about an order of magnitude from each other.

Thanks for any insights.
 
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Spanky1996 said:
Is there any way to say what ##X_A## is
First you have to define it ...

Next you are interested in the probability distributions of your stochastic variables. Are the variables independent ?

Spanky1996 said:
they do differ by about an order of magnitude from each other
I think that's less interesting: you can divide each variable by a scale factor without doing much damage.

It's fun playing with Monte Carlo's in Excel: make three columns of a thousand ' =rand() ' cells each and make a histogram of the products
Look at average and stdev for each column
Compare with ' =rand() - 0.5 '
 
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BvU said:
First you have to define it ...

Next you are interested in the probability distributions of your stochastic variables. Are the variables independent ?I think that's less interesting: you can divide each variable by a scale factor without doing much damage.

It's fun playing with Monte Carlo's in Excel: make three columns of a thousand ' =rand() ' cells each and make a histogram of the products
Look at average and stdev for each column
Compare with ' =rand() - 0.5 '
I am actually doing monte Carlo simulations, bravo.

I guess defining it is my issue. I'm not sure how one can define/examine what role the set of A's had in whatever the final answer is for X.

The variables are independent.

I was thinking of doing something similar to what you suggest in your last paragraph. I don't understand the last bit though '=rand()-0.5' what is that?

Thank you for your interest!
 
Spanky1996 said:
'=rand()-0.5' what is that
Gives a different average (of course) and sigma (!) and a different histogram :smile:
 
what else can you tell us about these random variables-- Is there a second moment?

also I typically wonder: are they positive valued? are they bounded?
 
I was reading a Bachelor thesis on Peano Arithmetic (PA). PA has the following axioms (not including the induction schema): $$\begin{align} & (A1) ~~~~ \forall x \neg (x + 1 = 0) \nonumber \\ & (A2) ~~~~ \forall xy (x + 1 =y + 1 \to x = y) \nonumber \\ & (A3) ~~~~ \forall x (x + 0 = x) \nonumber \\ & (A4) ~~~~ \forall xy (x + (y +1) = (x + y ) + 1) \nonumber \\ & (A5) ~~~~ \forall x (x \cdot 0 = 0) \nonumber \\ & (A6) ~~~~ \forall xy (x \cdot (y + 1) = (x \cdot y) + x) \nonumber...
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